Stock Index Futures Tread Water With All Eyes on Key U.S. Jobs Report

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.03%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.08% this morning as investors sit on their hands ahead of the all-important U.S. payrolls report that will offer fresh insight into the labor market and the path of interest rates.

Investors are also keeping an eye out for any updates on trade deals. Reuters reported that U.S. and India trade negotiators were working on Wednesday to secure a tariff-reducing deal ahead of the July 9th deadline, though disagreements over U.S. dairy and agriculture remained unsettled. Also, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic is set to meet with his counterparts today in Washington as the bloc scrambles to reach a deal before the July 9th deadline.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending bill remains in focus as well. The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday advanced President Trump’s tax bill, a procedural step that paves the way for potential passage of the legislation in a vote expected later in the day. Once the bill clears the House again, it will head to Trump’s desk, where he has long awaited the opportunity to sign it into law.

The U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today and remain closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Tesla (TSLA) advanced over +4% after the electric vehicle company reported better-than-feared Q2 deliveries. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) and ON Semiconductor (ON) rising more than +4%. In addition, Nike (NKE) climbed over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after President Trump said the U.S. reached a trade deal with Vietnam. On the bearish side, Centene (CNC) plummeted more than -40% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the health insurer withdrew its full-year profit guidance.

The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -33K in June, weaker than expectations of +99K and the first decline in 2-1/4 years.

“The ADP report increased the odds of a downside surprise in Thursday’s nonfarm payroll release,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Research. “Investor jitters could be a catalyst for a drop in yields [today] if the jobs report is weaker than expected. I expect a weaker-than-consensus report, increasing the odds the Fed cuts three times this year.”

Traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts this year following the weak ADP data, with the first expected in September. Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 74.7% chance of no rate change and a 25.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s July meeting.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 111K, compared to the May figure of 139K.

A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that investors are paying closer attention to the key jobs report than usual this time and are anticipating a weaker print. Among the respondents, 44% expect the data to be “mixed/negligible,” 41% anticipate a “risk-off” reaction, and only 15% expect a “risk-on” response.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect June figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will creep up a tick to 4.3% in June from 4.2% in the prior month.

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will be closely monitored today. Economists expect the June ISM services index to be 50.8 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 53.1, compared to the previous values of 49.9 and 53.7, respectively.

U.S. Factory Orders data will come in today. Economists foresee the May figure jumping +8.1% m/m, compared to -3.7% m/m in April.

U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today. Economists anticipate the trade deficit will widen to -$69.90B in May from -$61.60B in April.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 240K, compared to last week’s number of 236K.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.256%, down -0.79%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.05% this morning as investors continue to monitor trade developments and cautiously await the key U.S. jobs report. The benchmark index initially moved higher, buoyed by the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal and news that the U.S. lifted export restrictions to China for chip design software makers and ethane producers. However, trade optimism was tempered by caution ahead of the release of the all-important monthly U.S. jobs report. A survey released on Thursday showed that the Eurozone’s dominant services sector returned to growth in June after a brief contraction in May, though the pace remained modest as demand stayed weak despite improving business confidence. Meanwhile, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic is set to meet with his counterparts today in Washington as the bloc scrambles to reach a deal before the July 9th deadline. In corporate news, Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC.D.DX) rose over +3% after the German online drug retailer reported solid preliminary Q2 revenue and confirmed its full-year guidance.

Eurozone’s Composite PMI and Eurozone’s Services PMI data were released today.

Eurozone’s June Composite PMI stood at 50.6, stronger than expectations of 50.2.

Eurozone’s June Services PMI arrived at 50.5, stronger than expectations of 50.0.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.18%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.06%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today as investors digested the latest developments in U.S.-China trade relations and kept an eye on trade negotiations between the U.S. and other nations. Healthcare stocks led the gains on Thursday after Beijing increased policy support for the nation’s innovative drug sector. Semiconductor stocks were little changed following reports that the U.S. lifted some curbs on exports of chip-design software to China. The U.S. also gave the green light to resume ethane exports to China on Wednesday, signaling that the U.S.-China trade truce was on track. At the same time, China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday that it is evaluating the trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam and will defend its own rights and interests if necessary. Meanwhile, a private sector survey released on Thursday showed that China’s services activity grew at the slowest pace in nine months in June, as demand softened and new export orders fell amid a fragile trade truce with the U.S. Still, surveyed companies stayed optimistic about the economic outlook, with the index for future output expectations holding steady from the prior month. In other news, a major Chinese Communist Party publication called for stricter measures against competition that triggers price wars and compresses profits across multiple industries, criticizing large corporations and local governments for engaging in unfair practices. In corporate news, Alibaba slid nearly -3% in Hong Kong after the e-commerce giant announced a 50 billion yuan ($6.98 billion) subsidy program aimed at supporting merchants and customers. Investor focus is now squarely on the July Politburo meeting and the upcoming half-year earnings season.

The Chinese June Caixin Services PMI arrived at 50.6, weaker than expectations of 51.0.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly higher today as investor sentiment was subdued amid uncertainty over a trade deal with the U.S. Automobile and chip stocks gained ground on Thursday. The benchmark index spent most of the session in negative territory before pushing higher at the close. A private sector survey released on Thursday showed that Japan’s service sector activity grew at a slightly quicker pace in June, with business confidence rising to a four-month high. U.S. President Donald Trump has recently intensified pressure on Japan, describing negotiations as “really hard” and threatening to hike tariffs on Japanese imports to “30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine.” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated on Wednesday that he remains committed to defending Japan’s national interests, while chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa was reportedly arranging his eighth visit to the U.S. as soon as this weekend. Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said that the country will continue to pursue a win-win trade deal with the U.S. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan policy board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday that the central bank should be prepared to resume policy tightening if trade talks with the U.S. progress, reaffirming that the bank is still aiming to raise interest rates. “I believe that the bank is currently only pausing its policy interest rate hike cycle and should continue to make a gear shift after a certain period of ‘wait-and-see,’” Takata said. In other news, data from Japan’s finance ministry showed that foreign investors purchased a net 651.3 billion yen ($4.53 billion) worth of Japanese equities in the week to June 28th, driven by easing Middle East tensions and growing optimism over a rally in technology stocks. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +1.65% to 25.83.

The Japanese June au Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 51.7, stronger than expectations of 51.5.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Datadog (DDOG) surged over +10% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would be added to the S&P 500 index next week.

Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the U.S. lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China.

Tripadvisor (TRIP) gained more than +6% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value had built a more than 9% stake in the online travel company.

Meta Platforms (META) rose about +0.5% in pre-market trading after Needham upgraded the stock to Hold from Underperform.

FedEx (FDX) advanced over +1% in pre-market trading after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to Outperform from Underperform with a price target of $270.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - July 3rd

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