Middle East tensions brought a shock to the oil (CLQ25) markets, and oil prices remain slightly elevated despite the announced ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The conventional wisdom that caused oil prices to soar beyond $70 was that the “12-Day War” would morph into a regional conflict, one that would last for months or years.
Although that has not happened, many investors are still closely watching the region for any signs of tensions bubbling back up.
That’s why August crude oil futures are still above $65 at the moment. High-quality oil stocks stand to benefit from these elevated prices.
For investors looking to buy in now, here are three oil stocks that analysts love for their cash flow headroom here.
Oil Stock #1: Inpex (IPXHY)
Inpex (IPXHY) is a Japanese energy company that produces and sells oil and natural gas (NGQ25). It also invests in and lends money to other energy companies and has recently been more involved in solar and geothermal power generation.
The analysts who compiled this list of high-quality oil stocks were looking for companies that were included the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) or the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC). From there, stocks were screened to focus on ones that had a debt-equity ratio below 70% and were in the top 20 for free cash flow headroom based on FCF estimates.
Inpex has 12.3% in estimated FCF headroom. It’s hard to think about a big negative here, since the company has very solid financials, and it also trades at very cheap multiples. You can grab the stock for just over 6 times trailing earnings.
Last year, Inpex’s net cash flow grew 635% to $267.5 million, and net income grew 24.34% to $2.8 billion.
However, investors should note that due to lower oil and gas sales in the first quarter, its revenue and operating profit fell.
The good news appears to be that management is still planning to hike its dividend later in 2025.
Oil Stock #2: Devon Energy (DVN)
Devon Energy (DVN) is an oil and natural gas company in the United States. Any more Middle East conflict would lead to a sharp rise in both natural gas and oil prices in the U.S., as a fifth of all shipments in both of those energy categories go through regional arteries.
The U.S. has considerable domestic energy production, so such a price increase would directly benefit companies like Devon Energy. But even if such a crisis never happens, the financials here are strong.
DVN stock is trading nearly 60% below its 3-year high at the moment, and the stock seems significantly undervalued at 6.6 times trailing earnings. With oil prices holding higher and a more aggressive drilling policy in place under President Donald Trump, the stock has stabilized in the $30 to $35 band. Plus, analysts see 9.4% in FCF headroom for Devon Energy.
Last year, operating cash flow was at $6.6 billion, up slightly from 2023. This level is also quite substantial for a company with a market capitalization of less than $21 billion.
You can make use of the 3% dividend yield as you wait for it to recover. The dividend payout ratio is just 22%.
Oil Stock #3: SM Energy
SM Energy (SM) is an energy company that produces oil and natural gas. It is also in the U.S., and its production is based around the Permian Basin and the Uinta Basin.
This stock trades at just 3.5 times trailing earnings and its dividend yields 3.1%.
In the first quarter SM Energy announced that it had completed the integration of its assets in the Uinta Basin, which allowed it to push oil production to the high end of its guided range. Net income of $182.3 million was up significantly from $131.2 million in the year-ago period, and total revenue of $844.5 million was up 50% year-over-year. The company reported adjusted free cash flow of $73.8 million. And, looking ahead, analysts see SM Energy having FCF headroom of 10.6%.
For the full year, SM is guiding for growth in total production and in oil production specifically.
The Bottom Line
Despite a ceasefire easing fears of prolonged conflict in the Middle East, oil prices remain elevated, providing a tailwind for energy stocks. With solid financials, attractive valuations, and strong free cash flow potential, Inpex, Devon Energy, and SM Energy stand out as compelling plays for investors seeking exposure to the current oil market.
On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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