Stock Index Futures Climb on Israel-Iran Truce Optimism, U.S. Economic Data and Powell’s Testimony on Tap

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.67%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.89% this morning as sentiment got a boost after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

President Trump announced late on Monday that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire that could pave the way to ending the war. Hours later, Mr. Trump confirmed that the ceasefire was now in effect and called on both nations to honor the agreement. “PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” he said in a social media post at 1:08 a.m. ET. Trump’s statement was soon followed by a confirmation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his country had agreed to a truce. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an earlier post that his country would cease fire as long as Israel did.

Stock index futures trimmed some gains after Israel reported detecting a missile launch from Iran just hours after the truce announcement and ordered the military to “respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire.” At the same time, Iran rejected claims it had launched the missiles after the truce, according to the state-run news agency.

President Trump said on Tuesday that he believed both Israel and Iran breached the ceasefire he had announced just hours earlier, adding that he was not happy with both nations, but particularly with Israel. “I think they both violated it,” Trump said as he departed the White House to attend the NATO summit at The Hague. But when asked whether the ceasefire was breaking, Trump replied, “I don’t think so.”

Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Tesla (TSLA) surged over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the electric vehicle maker rolled out its robotaxi service to some riders in Austin, Texas. Also, Northern Trust (NTRS) climbed more than +8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of New York Mellon had approached the company last week to express interest in a merger. In addition, Estee Lauder (EL) gained over +4% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $95. On the bearish side, Hims Hers Health (HIMS) plummeted more than -34% after Novo Nordisk ended its partnership with the telehealth company.

Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.0 in June, stronger than expectations of 51.1. Also, U.S. May existing home sales unexpectedly rose +0.8% m/m to 4.03M, stronger than expectations of 3.96M. At the same time, the U.S. S&P Global services PMI fell to 53.1 in June, though the decline was less than the expected 52.9.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the absence of evident inflation pressure following President Trump’s April 2nd tariffs could give the central bank room to resume cutting interest rates. “If we do not see inflation resulting from these tariff increases, then in my mind, we never left what I was calling the golden path before April 2,” Goolsbee said. Also, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said, “Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 77.3% chance of no rate change and a 22.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in July.

Today, market participants will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Powell will likely stress that although rate cuts are possible this year, policymakers seek greater clarity on the economic effects of U.S. trade policy. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, New York Fed President John Williams, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Fed Governor Michael Barr will also speak today.

On the economic data front, all eyes are on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The reading will be closely monitored amid recent weak sentiment indicators that have been moving markets due to tariff concerns. Economists, on average, forecast that the June CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 99.4, compared to last month’s figure of 98.0.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the April figure to be +4.0% y/y, compared to +4.1% y/y in March.

The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -10 in June, compared to the previous value of -9.

On the earnings front, delivery giant FedEx (FDX) and cruise line operator Carnival Corp. (CCL) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.347%, up +0.65%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.58% this morning after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which boosted market sentiment. Travel stocks led the gains on Tuesday. A survey released on Tuesday showed that German business sentiment improved more than expected in June as companies assessed the anticipated lift from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Germany’s cabinet on Tuesday approved the draft budget for 2025 and the budget framework for 2026, with record investment levels in both years to help revive growth after Europe’s largest economy failed to expand for two straight years. Investor attention is also on the NATO summit beginning today in The Hague, where leaders are set to discuss security priorities amid recent global tensions. In corporate news, Mediobanca (MB.M.DX) gained over +3% after Reuters reported that the ECB had cleared Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s proposed acquisition of the company.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview with the Financial Times published on Tuesday that the central bank could still lower interest rates within the next six months.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was released today.

The German June Ifo Business Climate Index stood at 88.4, stronger than expectations of 88.1.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.15%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.14%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, tracking a broader rally across Asia, as global risk appetite improved after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. AI-related and financial stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Investors now turn their attention to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, which kicks off today. Chinese lawmakers are reportedly set to examine draft legislation aimed at revising laws on unfair competition and potential countermeasures to U.S. tariffs. Beijing is also expected to review administrative penalties, along with maritime, fisheries, and civil aviation regulations, according to Xinhua News Agency. In other news, China’s commerce ministry stated on Tuesday that the country is deeply dissatisfied and firmly opposed to the European Union’s restrictions on Chinese firms in the medical devices sector. In corporate news, China Hongqiao climbed over +6% in Hong Kong after the aluminum producer projected a 35% increase in first-half earnings compared to the same period last year.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, snapping a 3-session losing streak as sentiment got a boost following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. Chip and other electronics stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Limiting gains, export-oriented stocks slumped as the yen strengthened against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar. Also, energy stocks retreated, tracking a drop in oil prices. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond prices fell on Tuesday as investors assessed the outcome of a 20-year bond auction, and a ceasefire in the Middle East reduced safe-haven demand for sovereign debt. On the trade front, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan’s tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is planning his seventh trip to the U.S. for as early as June 26th, seeking to end tariffs that are weighing on Japan’s economy. The main focus of the visit is expected to be on U.S. tariffs imposed on Japanese automobiles, which have a significant impact on the domestic economy. In other news, Japan’s government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Tuesday that the country plans to hold an upper house election on July 20th. Investor focus this week is also on Japan’s retail sales data, which, along with Tokyo CPI, a leading indicator for Japan’s nationwide gauge of prices, will help guide the Bank of Japan’s next policy decisions. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -10.08% to 23.92.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading amid risk-on sentiment, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising over +3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining more than +2%.

Lyft (LYFT) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $21, and named the stock its “Best Smidcap Idea” for 2025.

Tesla (TSLA) advanced over +2% in pre-market trading, extending yesterday’s gains after the electric vehicle maker rolled out its robotaxi service to some riders in Austin, Texas.

KB Home (KBH) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after the homebuilder cut its full-year housing revenue guidance.

Dollar General (DG) dropped nearly -1% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - June 24th

FedEx (FDX), Carnival Corp (CCL), AeroVironment (AVAV), Worthington Industries (WOR), BlackBerry (BB), Anterix (ATEX).