S&P Futures Gain as Trump Delays Decision on Iran Strikes

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending up +0.15% this morning as cash trading resumed after the Juneteenth holiday, with investors digesting the White House’s signal that President Trump would delay a decision to launch strikes against Iran.

The conflict between Israel and Iran entered its second week, with Israel hitting more nuclear sites in Iran on Thursday and warning that its strikes could bring down Tehran’s leadership, as both sides awaited a decision from U.S. President Donald Trump on whether to join the offensive. On Thursday afternoon, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that President Trump would decide within two weeks whether the U.S. would participate in strikes against Iran, while noting there was a “substantial chance” of reaching a negotiated settlement. The news alleviated immediate concerns of U.S. military escalation, providing some relief to investors.

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. In a post-meeting statement, officials said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated.” Policymakers also released updated quarterly rate projections and economic forecasts, lowering their estimates for economic growth this year while projecting higher inflation and unemployment. While the median projection for two rate cuts this year remained unchanged, officials now anticipate fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027.

At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his view that the central bank was “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Powell also stated that rising tariffs are likely to push prices higher, cautioning that their impact on inflation could be more persistent.

“They are clearly in wait-and-see mode. They are sitting on their hands, waiting to see if tariffs increase inflation or the jobs market starts to falter, and whichever part of their dual mandate is impacted first will likely guide whichever direction they take,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management. 

In Wednesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Mastercard (MA) slid more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and Visa (V) fell over -4% to lead losers in the Dow amid continued worries about the impact of stablecoins on credit-card issuers. Also, Zoetis (ZTS) slid more than -4% after Stifel downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. In addition, La-Z-Boy (LZB) fell over -1% after the furniture maker posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and issued soft FQ1 revenue guidance. On the bullish side, Coinbase (COIN) surged more than +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Senate passed the Genius Act, legislation aimed at regulating stablecoins, and the company introduced Coinbase Payments, a stablecoin payments stack for commerce platforms.

The Labor Department’s report on Wednesday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -5K to 245K, compared with the 246K expected. Also, U.S. May housing starts plunged -9.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.256M, weaker than expectations of 1.350M, while building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -2.0% m/m to 1.393M, weaker than expectations of 1.420M.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. According to an estimate from Citi, $5.8 trillion of notional open interest across equities is set to expire today, including $4.2 trillion of index options, $708 billion of bets on U.S. ETFs, and $819 billion of single stock options. Rocky Fishman, founder of research firm Asym 500, estimated a larger figure of roughly $6.5 trillion, which also includes the notional value of options on equity index futures expiring today.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the June Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at -1.7, compared to last month’s value of -4.0.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will also be released today. Economists expect the May figure to be -0.1% m/m, compared to the previous number of -1.0% m/m.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and CarMax (KMX) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.7% chance of no rate change and an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in July.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.403%, up +0.16%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.77% this morning, snapping a three-day losing streak as sentiment improved after the White House downplayed speculation that the U.S. was close to joining Israel in strikes against Iran. Travel stocks led the gains on Friday. Chip stocks also gained ground. Still, the benchmark index is on track for its first back-to-back weekly drop since the start of April. Meanwhile, European foreign ministers are scheduled to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday to urge them to de-escalate. On the economic front, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday that Britain’s monthly retail sales fell much more than expected in May, a fresh indication of pessimism in an economy struggling to gain traction. Separately, data showed that France’s manufacturing climate indicator fell slightly in June. Investor focus is now on the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence data for June, due later in the session. In corporate news, Tui AG (TUI1.D.DX) climbed over +4% after Barclays double-upgraded the stock to Overweight from Underweight, citing strong demand for packaged travel. At the same time, Berkeley Group Holdings Plc (BKG.LN) plunged more than -7% after the homebuilder announced management changes.

U.K. Retail Sales, U.K. Core Retail Sales, Germany’s PPI, and France’s Business Survey data were released today.

U.K. May Retail Sales stood at -2.7% m/m and -1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y.

U.K. May Core Retail Sales arrived at -2.8% m/m and -1.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and +1.8% y/y.

The German May PPI has been reported at -0.2% m/m and -1.2% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.3% m/m and -1.2% y/y.

The French June Business Survey came in at 96, weaker than expectations of 97.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.07%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.22%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today. The conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its second week, continued to rattle investor confidence. Investor sentiment was also dampened by the absence of concrete policy signals from this week’s Lujiazui Forum, with focus now turning to the upcoming July Politburo meeting for more definitive signs of economic support measures. The benchmark index ended the week lower. Meanwhile, China left its benchmark lending rates steady as expected on Friday, after a reduction in the prior month intended to help offset the effects of trade tensions with the U.S. The one-year loan prime rate stayed at 3.0% and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.5%, according to the People’s Bank of China. In other news, the European Union said it intends to exclude Chinese firms from the bloc’s government purchases of medical devices after determining that EU manufacturers lack equal access in China, further escalating trade tensions between Brussels and Beijing. In corporate news, Pop Mart International Group slid over -3% in Hong Kong after a Chinese state media commentary urged tighter regulation of blind-box toys and trading cards to prevent potential addiction among children to purchasing the mystery items.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as hotter-than-expected inflation data from the country and Middle East tensions dampened sentiment. Video game and heavy-industry stocks led the declines on Friday. Despite Friday’s drop, the benchmark index ended the week higher. Government data released on Friday showed that Japan’s core inflation accelerated to a fresh 2-year high in May and stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for over three years, but that may not prompt a rate hike anytime soon, as the country’s central bank waits to assess the outcome of U.S. trade talks. Persistently high inflation is complicating the BOJ’s policy stance, as uncertainty tied to tariffs makes it more difficult to gauge the appropriate timing for raising rates to curb price pressures. Meanwhile, minutes from the central bank’s April 30-May 1 policy meeting released on Friday showed that some BOJ policy board members said it was appropriate to maintain a stance favoring additional rate hikes, as real interest rates remain deeply negative and the 2% inflation target seems attainable. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the central bank will keep raising interest rates if improvements in the economy continue to support a sustained achievement of its 2% inflation target. On the trade front, Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that trade talks with the U.S. “remained in a fog” despite ongoing efforts by both sides to reach an agreement. In other news, Japan’s Ministry of Finance is scheduled to meet primary dealers today and institutional investors on Monday to discuss JGB issuance, with investors speculating that it may consider cutting volumes of 20-, 30-, and 40-year JGBs while increasing the supply of two-year bonds. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +1.59% to 25.60.

The Japanese May National Core CPI stood at +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.6% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

GMS Inc. (GMS) soared over +19% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Home Depot had made an offer for the company.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) surged more than +11% in pre-market trading, extending Wednesday’s gains after the Senate passed the Genius Act. Also, Seaport Research initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $235 price target.

Mondelez International (MDLZ) rose nearly +1% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $78.

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) plunged more than -13% in pre-market trading after the gunmaker posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 results.

Johnson Controls (JCI) fell about -0.9% in pre-market trading after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to Perform from Outperform. 

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - June 20th

Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), Darden Restaurants (DRI), CarMax (KMX).