Stocks Tumble and Oil Surges on Middle East Jitters

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Tuesday closed down -0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.70%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.00%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are down -0.86%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are down -0.99%. 

Stock indexes retreated Tuesday, and crude oil surged more than +4% as market sentiment turned negative after President Trump played down the chance of an Israel-Iran ceasefire. After leaving the G-7 meeting in Canada, President Trump said that he hasn't reached out to Iran for peace talks "in any way, shape or form" and that a "permanent end and not a ceasefire" to the nuclear dispute with Iran would be the goal.

Losses in stocks accelerated Tuesday afternoon as President Trump was set to meet his national security team, fueling speculation that the US may be on the verge of joining the attack against Iran.  Israel said it will intensify its attacks on Tehran, and President Trump said he wants "unconditional surrender" from Iran. 

Stock indexes were also undercut on Tuesday due to concerns about stagflation, following the weaker-than-expected US retail sales report and stronger-than-expected import price report.  In addition, homebuilder sentiment slumped to a 2-1/2 year low.

US May retail sales fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m, and May retail sales ex-autos unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m versus expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase.

The US May import price index ex-petroleum rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.

US May manufacturing production rose +0.1% m/m, right on expectations.

The US June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -2 to a 2-1/2 year low of 32, weaker than expectations of an increase to 36.

Hostilities between Israel and Iran entered a fifth day Tuesday with no signs of easing.  Israel said it saw a drop-off in Iranian attacks on Tuesday, saying only "a few dozen" missiles had been launched since midnight compared with the hundreds seen over the weekend.  Israel also said it is too early to assess the success of the current campaign in Iran, but strikes on the country's nuclear facilities are "deepening" every day. 

So far, there's also been nocausedof the vital Strait of Hormuz that handles about 20% of the world's daily crude shipments, although navigational signals from over 900 vessels moving through the strait have been disrupted due to "extreme jamming" of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, which caused a collision of two tankers Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz.   

Investors are bracing for negative tariff news within the next week or so, following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that came with his 90-day pause. 

The markets are focused on the FOMC's 2-day meeting that ends on Wednesday, with expectations the federal funds target range to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%.  The markets will look to the Fed's dot-plot and post-meeting comments Wednesday from Fed Chair Powell as to when the Fed may again ease policy.  Also, on Wednesday, May housing starts are expected to fall -0.8% m/m to 1.350 million, and May building permits are expected to climb +0.2% m/m to 1.425 million. In addition, weekly initial unemployment claims will be released on Wednesday due to the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday and are expected to fall by -3,000 to 245,000. 

The markets are discounting the chances at 0% for a -25 bp rate cut at the Tue-Wed FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets on Tuesday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 3-week low and closed down -0.95%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.04%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 3-3/4 month high and closed up +0.59%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Tuesday closed up +11.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -5.7 bp to 4.389%.   T-notes rallied Tuesday on the increase in safe-haven demand as stocks fell after President Trump played down the chance of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war.  T-notes also found support after US May retail sales fell more than expected, and the June NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low. T-notes added to their gains on ramped-up safe-haven demand as President Trump was set to meet his national security team, fueling speculation that the US may be on the verge of joining the attack against Iran.

Gains in T-notes were limited Tuesday after a +4% jump in crude prices pushed inflation expectations higher, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a one-week high of 2.328%.

European government bond yields on Tuesday moved higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +0.8 bp to 2.535%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +1.7 bp to 4.550%.

The German Jun ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +22.3 to 47.5, stronger than expectations of 35.0. 

ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said the ECB has found "equilibrium" on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, but "if the Eurozone economy weakens further, if inflation decreases further below the target, then we may proceed to further rate cuts."

Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Travel and hotel stocks retreated Tuesday after President Trump downplayed the chance for an early end to the Israel-Iran war.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed down more than -6%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed down more than -4%.  Also, Southwest Airlines (LUV), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed down more than -2%.   

Lennar (LEN) closed down more than -4% to lead homebuilders lower after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS  of $1.81, weaker than the consensus of $1.95. Also, PulteGroup (PHM) closed down more than -3%, and Toll Brothers (TOL) and DR Horton (DHI) closed down more than -2%. 

Pharmaceutical companies moved lower Tuesday after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is weighing policies that would restrict pharmaceutical companies' ability to advertise directly to patients.  As a result, Merk & Co (MRK) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  Also, AbbVie (ABBV), Biogen (BIIB), and Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY) closed down more than -2%.  In addition, Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Moderna (MRNA) closed down more than -1%.

Redwire Corp (RDW) closed down more than -18% after offering $200 million of shares of common stock in an underwritten registered public offering at $16.75 to $17.75 per share, an 18% discount to Monday's closing prices of $20.57.

MakeMyTrip Ltd (MMYT) closed down more than -8% after announcing an offering of 14 million shares of common stock and an offering of $1.25 billion in convertible senior notes due 2030.  

T-Mobile US (TMUS) closed down more than -4% after holder Softbank Group said it sold 21.5 million shares of the stock to fund its AI plans. 

Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) closed down more than -4% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold from buy. 

Energy stocks and energy service providers moved higher Tuesday after the price of WTI crude oil up surged more than +4%.  Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +2%.  Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), APA Corp (APA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed up more than -1%.  In addition, Chevron (CVX) is up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Defense companies rose on Tuesday due to the escalation of the Israel-Iran war. Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) closed up more than +2%.  Also, RTX Corp (RTX), Northrup Grumman (NOC), and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) closed up more than +1%.

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up more than +82% after Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy the company for about $1.3 billion. 

Jabil (JBL) closed up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 net revenue of $7.83 billion, well above the consensus of $7.04 billion, and raising its full-year net revenue estimate to $29 billion from a previous estimate of $27.9 billion, stronger than the consensus of $27.93 billion.

Alkermes Plc (ALKS) closed up more than +1% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $42.

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