Stocks Mixed as Markets Monitor US-China Trade Talks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.25%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25) are up +0.10%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM25) are up +0.30%. 

Stock indexes are mixed today as the markets focus on any progress made in the US-China trade talks currently underway in London.  The talks seek to resolve issues on rare-earth minerals and advanced technology, with the US seeking to restore flows of critical minerals and China seeking tariff reductions and easing of technology export controls. 

M&A activity is supportive of stocks after Qualcomm agreed to buy Alphawave IP Group Plc for about $2.4 billion.  Also, IonQ agreed to buy Oxford Ionics in a deal valued at $1.075 billion.  Weakness in insurance stocks is weighing on the overall market.

Chinese trade news was below expectations and bearish for global growth prospects, as China’s May exports rose +4.8% year-over-year, weaker than the expected +6.0% year-over-year increase.  Also, May imports fell -3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.8% y/y.

The markets this week will focus on any fresh tariff news and the US-China trade negotiations.  On Wednesday, May CPI is expected to tick up to +2.5% y/y from +2.3% y/y in April, and May CPI ex-food and energy is expected to increase to +2.9% y/y from +2.8% y/y in April.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall -6,000 to 241,000. Also, the May final-demand PPI is expected to increase to +2.6% y/y from +2.4% y/y in April, and May PPI ex-food and energy is expected to remain unchanged from April at +3.1% y/y.  On Friday, the preliminary June University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index is expected to climb +1.3 to 53.5. 

The markets are discounting the chances at 0% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 17-18.

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.27%.  China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 3-week high and closed up +0.43%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a 1-week high and closed up +0.92%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are down -1 tick.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.2 bp to 4.508%.  Sep T-notes today are slightly lower, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-week high of 4.516%.  T-notes are under pressure today on carryover weakness in European government bonds.  Also, today’s rally in WTI crude oil prices to a 2-1/4 month high has raised inflation expectations, a bearish factor for T-notes.  In addition, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $58 billion of 3-year T-notes on Tuesday as part of this week’s $119 billion auction schedule of T-notes and T-bonds. 

European government bond yields today are moving higher.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.9 bp to 2.585%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.7 bp to 4.661%.

ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said the ECB is nearly, if not already, at the end of its interest rate cut cycle.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 27% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Strength in chip stocks is giving the broader market a boost.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up more than +4%, and Qualcomm (QCOM), ON Semiconductor (ON), Intel (INTC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +3%.  Also, Micron Technology (MU), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Nvidia (NVDA), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Analog Devices (ADI) are up more than +2%. 

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after it said it will split into two publicly traded companies, one for streaming and studios business and one for TV networks operations. 

Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) is up more than +9% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $15. 

Etoro Group Ltd (ETOR) is up more than +7% after Mizuho Securities initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $80. 

ABM Industries (ABM) is up more than +3% after Baird upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $56. 

Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) is up more than +3% after Williams Trading LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $31. 

IonQ (IONQ) is up more than +3% after agreeing to buy Oxford Ionics in a deal valued at $1.075 billion. 

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Deutsche Bank Downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a price target of $440.

Insurance stocks are sliding today and pressuring the overall market.  American International Group (AIG), Allstate (ALL), Aon Plc (AON), and Progressive Corp (PGR) are down more than -4%.  Also, Arthur J Gallagher (AJG), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), and Willis Towers Watson Plc (WTW) are down more than -3%.  In addition, Travelers Cos (TRV) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.

EchoStar (SATS) is down more than -6% after the Wall Street Journal reported the company is weighing a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing amid an FCC review of certain of its wireless and satellite spectrum rights. 

Cheniere Energy (LNG) is down more than -5% on signs of insider selling after an SEC filing showed Director Shear sold $1.06 million of shares last Thursday.

AppLovin (APP) is down by more than -4% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced there are no changes to the S&P 500 Index, dampening speculation that the stock would be added to the index.

Conagra Brands (CAG) is down more than -1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $221. 

Earnings Reports (6/9/2025)

Borr Drilling Ltd (BORR), Calavo Growers Inc (CVGW), Casey’s General Stores Inc (CASY), Gencor Industries Inc (GENC), Graham Corp (GHM), Hooker Furnishings Corp (HOFT), Limoneira Co (LMNR), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT).