Stock Index Futures Muted as OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Outlook, JOLTs Report and Fed Speak in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.07%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.05% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as a warning from the OECD on U.S. economic growth added to worries about the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Two months after President Trump’s tariff announcements and push for new trade agreements, there are still few signs of progress in negotiations with China, Japan, and the European Union, weighing on investor sentiment. The Trump administration reportedly pressed countries to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday and said that the U.S. president and his Chinese counterpart will likely speak this week, though representatives of the Chinese leader have yet to show reciprocal interest.

At the same time, the U.S. economy has continued to exhibit signs of a gradual but widespread slowdown. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development on Tuesday lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast for the U.S. to 1.6%, down from 2.2% in its previous projection, citing uncertainty surrounding tariffs.

Investor focus is now on the latest reading on U.S. job openings and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. U.S. steel and aluminum stocks surged on President Trump’s pledge to double levies on the metals to 50%, with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) soaring over +23% and Steel Dynamics (STLD) climbing more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. Also, Zscaler (ZS) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Canaccord and UBS raised their price targets on the stock. In addition, Boeing (BA) rose +2% after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $260 price target. On the bearish side, CDW Corp. (CDW) fell more than -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the Wall Street Journal reported that funding cuts from the Trump administration have extended to technology contractors.

Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 48.5 in May, weaker than expectations of 49.3. Also, the U.S. May S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 52.0 from the preliminary reading of 52.3. In addition, U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell -0.4% m/m in April, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m.

“We continue to expect market volatility as investors digest fresh tariff headlines and incoming US economic data. Fiscal worries remain, and geopolitical tensions are heating up,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that he still sees a path to interest rate cuts later this year. “Assuming that the effective tariff rate settles close to my lower tariff scenario, that underlying inflation continues to make progress to our 2% goal, and that the labor market remains solid, I would be supporting ‘good news’ rate cuts later this year,” Waller said. Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that policymakers can move forward with interest rate cuts if uncertainty surrounding trade policy is cleared. In addition, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that the central bank can take a patient approach as it evaluates risks to both inflation and unemployment. “Monetary policy is really well positioned for us to wait and be patient and watch the data, knowing that if the risks are to materially change on either side, we’re well positioned to act,” Logan said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.3% probability of no rate change and a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the April JOLTs Job Openings will come in at 7.110M, compared to the March figure of 7.192M.

U.S. Factory Orders data will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be -3.1% m/m in April, compared to the previous number of +4.3% m/m.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

On the earnings front, notable companies like CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Ferguson (FERG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and Dollar General (DG) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.414%, down -1.05%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.43% this morning as persistent concerns over the trade war’s impact continued to hurt sentiment. Such concerns were highlighted by the OECD, which on Tuesday lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.9%, down from 3.1%, and significantly reduced its U.S. growth projection. It also stated that the Eurozone’s growth is projected to rise from 0.8% in 2024 to 1% this year and 1.2% in 2026, unchanged from the previous report. Bank and mining stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Still, the benchmark index’s losses were limited as data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone inflation dipped below the European Central Bank’s target in May, cementing expectations for an ECB rate cut later this week. Separately, data showed that the unemployment rate in the Eurozone was a record low of 6.2% in April. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to lower the deposit rate by another 25 basis points to 2.00% on Thursday. Investors will likely focus on signals about future moves and on projections that President Christine Lagarde will present. In corporate news, UBS Group AG (UBSG.Z.IX) rose over +2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.

Eurozone’s CPI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Core CPI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

Eurozone’s May CPI stood at +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.0% y/y.

Eurozone’s May Core CPI came in at +2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y.

Eurozone’s April Unemployment Rate was 6.2%, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.43%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.06%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today amid expectations of additional stimulus measures following weak PMI data from the country. Bank and chip stocks led the gains on Tuesday. A survey released on Tuesday showed that a private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity slipped into contraction in May for the first time in eight months as tariffs continued to exert pressure despite a trade truce with the U.S. A few days earlier, China’s official manufacturing PMI showed an improvement in May, but stayed in contraction territory, highlighting persistent challenges in the sector. The latest data underscore the need for additional government support to bolster consumption and cushion the impact of external demand shocks. Meanwhile, sentiment was also supported by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s statement on Monday that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are likely to speak this week. Analysts noted that direct talks between Xi and Trump could help ease tensions between the world’s largest economies after both countries accused each other of breaching a trade deal struck in May. In other news, Chinese citizens made an estimated 657 million passenger trips during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, up 3% year-over-year, according to the country’s state broadcaster. In corporate news, Li Auto climbed over +5% in Hong Kong after the automaker said it delivered 40,856 vehicles in May, surpassing the 40,000 threshold for the first time this year.

The Chinese May Caixin Manufacturing PMI arrived at 48.3, weaker than expectations of 50.7.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier gains and closed slightly lower today amid investor caution over global trade tensions. A stronger yen, which diminishes the value of overseas earnings for Japanese exporters, also kept sentiment subdued. Pharmaceutical and automobile stocks underperformed on Tuesday. At the same time, chip-related stocks advanced, tracking overnight gains in their U.S. counterparts. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the central bank will hike interest rates once it is sufficiently confident that economic and price growth will regain momentum following a period of stagnation. Still, he emphasized that the central bank is not presetting rate decisions and will not pursue rate hikes solely to make room for future rate reductions. Ueda also indicated that the central bank will maintain its bond purchase tapering even after the current plan, which runs through March, concludes. Yields on Japan’s medium- to long-term government bonds fell on Tuesday after an auction of 10-year bonds drew the strongest demand since April of last year. In other news, a draft of Japan’s economic policy guidelines reviewed by Reuters stated that the country should encourage domestic ownership of government bonds to prevent further increases in long-term interest rates driven by supply-demand imbalances. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.07% to 24.57.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Constellation Energy (CEG) surged more than +14% in pre-market trading after announcing a 20-year agreement to sell nuclear power to Meta Platforms.

Bumble (BMBL) slumped over -5% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $5.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after Barclays downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight.

Credo Technology (CRDO) jumped over +14% in pre-market trading after the provider of high-speed connectivity solutions for data centers posted upbeat FQ4 results and issued above-consensus FQ1 revenue guidance.

Pinterest (PINS) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $40.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - June 3rd

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Ferguson (FERG), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Dollar General (DG), Guidewire (GWRE), Healthequity (HQY), Donaldson (DCI), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Asana (ASAN), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Couchbase (BASE), Yext (YEXT), National Energy Services (NESR), Mama’s Creations (MAMA), Citi Trends (CTRN).