Nasdaq Futures Gain With All Eyes on Nvidia Earnings, FOMC Minutes on Tap

June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are trending up +0.18% this morning as investors look ahead to an earnings report from AI darling Nvidia and the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended sharply higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing over +6% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +3%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Arm Holdings (ARM) gaining over +5%. In addition, Hologic (HOLX) jumped over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Financial Times reported that private equity firms TPG and Blackstone made a non-binding offer of up to $16.7 billion to take the company private. On the bearish side, PDD Holdings (PDD) plunged more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted weaker-than-expected Q1 results.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to a 3-month high of 98.0 in May, stronger than expectations of 87.1. Also, U.S. durable goods orders slid -6.3% m/m in April, stronger than expectations of -7.6% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m. In addition, the U.S. March S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +4.1% y/y from +4.5% y/y in February, weaker than expectations of +4.5% y/y.

New York Fed President John Williams stated on Wednesday that central banks need to “respond relatively strongly” when inflation starts to stray from their target. “The thing you want to avoid is allowing inflation to become highly persistent, because highly persistent can kind of become permanent,” Williams said. Last week, Williams indicated that policymakers may keep interest rates unchanged through July as they seek to better understand the economic effects of President Trump’s trade policy shifts.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.9% chance of no rate change and a 2.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, long-dated Treasury yields climbed again on Wednesday after a weak auction of Japan’s longest-dated government bonds reignited investors' worries over government debt.

Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s first-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. Two main questions looming over the earnings are how much of an impact the company will face from restrictions on its H20 chip sales to China, and how swiftly it is ramping up production and sales of its cutting-edge Blackwell hardware. Wedbush analysts stated that the company is poised to remain a key beneficiary of massive AI infrastructure investments by hyperscalers.

“Nvidia’s next earnings report will be important in determining whether or not the stock can break out of the relatively narrow trading range that it’s been in over the past 10 months,” said Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management. “While Nvidia’s valuation is once again rich, as it’s recovered almost all of its tariff-driven decline, the stock needs a catalyst to break out to new record highs.”

Investors will also closely follow the publication of the Fed’s minutes from the May 6-7 meeting for further insights into policymakers’ discussions on interest rates and the economy. The Fed signaled that rate cuts are unlikely for now due to inflation risks, though officials remain concerned about the potential economic damage from tariffs.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure will stand at -9 in May, compared to the previous value of -13.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and New York Fed President John Williams.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.477%, up +0.97%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.48% this morning, taking a breather after a recent rally, while investors digest regional economic data and await Nvidia’s earnings. Retail and mining stocks led the declines on Wednesday, while defense stocks outperformed. Final data from statistics office INSEE released on Wednesday confirmed that France’s economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter. Separately, data from the Federal Employment Agency showed that the number of people out of work in Germany increased more than expected in May as major companies accelerate plans to restructure their workforces amid an uncertain economic backdrop. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s survey revealed that Eurozone consumers lifted their inflation expectations for the next year to 3.1% in April but maintained stable longer-term views, underscoring persistent uncertainty amid a global trade war. Investors also continue to monitor developments in trade negotiations with the U.S. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the European Commission has requested top European companies and CEOs to disclose their U.S. investment plans in an effort to gather leverage ahead of critical trade negotiations with Washington. In corporate news, Kingfisher Plc (KGF.LN) dropped over -2% after the home improvement retailer’s Q1 results disappointed investors.

France’s GDP, Germany’s Unemployment Change, and Germany’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

The French GDP has been reported at +0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y in the first quarter, compared to expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.8% y/y.

The German May Unemployment Change came in at 34K, weaker than expectations of 12K.

The German May Unemployment Rate was 6.3%, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.02%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed flat. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just below the flatline today as investors remained on the sidelines awaiting clarity on tariffs and domestic stimulus measures. Shares of major electric vehicle makers extended losses on Wednesday as an escalating price war in China’s auto industry has fueled concerns of a long-expected shakeout in the world’s largest car market. The benchmark index has struggled for direction in recent sessions as investor sentiment remains muted due to a lack of positive news, though the absence of major negative catalysts has also limited downside pressure. Analysts say that for the market to break such tranquility, Beijing needs to carry out deeper structural reforms and achieve breakthroughs in trade negotiations with the U.S. While China and the U.S. agreed to maintain communication following a call between senior officials last week, investors were disappointed by the absence of concrete progress toward a broader trade deal. Meanwhile, the 90-day negotiation window ends in August. Citic Securities analysts said in a note that U.S.-China trade talks “are expected to remain in a tug-of-war phase.” In other news, China’s finance ministry said on Wednesday it intends to issue 12.5 billion yuan ($1.74 billion) in treasury bonds in Hong Kong on June 4th. In corporate news, Xiaomi Corp. rose about +0.4% in Hong Kong after the company posted record Q1 revenue and profit. Investors await China’s manufacturing activity data for May, set for release on Saturday, for fresh insights into the health of the economy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index erased earlier gains and closed flat today as sentiment was dampened by poor demand at an auction for the country’s longest-dated bonds, triggering a rebound in Japanese government bond yields. Investors also exercised caution ahead of Nvidia earnings later in the day. Utilities stocks led the declines on Wednesday, while energy stocks outperformed. An auction of 40-year Japanese government bonds attracted the weakest demand in almost a year, signaling increased investor caution amid the recent surge in super-long bond yields. The government on Wednesday sold approximately 500 billion yen ($3.46 billion) of 40-year bonds at a yield of 3.135%. The nation’s bond yields surged after the sale, raising concerns about further volatility in global debt markets. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the central bank will remain alert to the risk that significant fluctuations in super-long bond yields could affect shorter-term borrowing costs and have a broader impact on the economy. “Our research has shown that changes in short- and medium-term interest rates have larger impacts on economic activities than super-long yields due to a larger weight of debt held by companies and households in those durations,” Ueda told parliament. The remarks highlight the BOJ’s increasing focus on the recent turbulence in super-long bond yields. In other news, Japan’s government is set to pledge in this year’s policy guidelines to take “nimble policy action” as U.S. tariffs and elevated inflation weigh on household finances, according to a draft seen by Reuters. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.93% to 23.20.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Okta (OKTA) plunged over -12% in pre-market trading after the identity access management company maintained its full-year revenue guidance, disappointing investors.

Box (BOX) surged more than +12% in pre-market trading after the cloud-storage company posted better-than-expected Q1 results and issued strong guidance for Q2 and FY26.

Vail Resorts (MTN) climbed over +11% in pre-market trading after the company announced that executive chairperson and former chief executive officer Rob Katz will return as CEO, effective immediately. The company also reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

Macy’s (M) gained more than +3% in pre-market trading after the department store posted better-than-feared Q1 results.

State Street (STT) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after Truist upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $112.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - May 28th

NVIDIA (NVDA), Salesforce Inc (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Agilent Technologies (A), HP Inc. (HPQ), Nutanix (NTNX), Pure Storage (PSTG), Nordson (NDSN), SentinelOne (S), ELF Beauty (ELF), Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF), Macy’s (M), Kingsoft Cloud (KC), C3.ai (AI), Ncino (NCNO), Capri Holdings (CPRI), Phreesia (PHR), Photronics (PLAB), Eagle Point Cred (ECC).