The most recent 13F from legendary investor Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management shows that he has put options on NVDA. This filing was current as of March 31, and comes at a time when Nvidia is still running hot with solid fundamentals. When the company reports its fiscal first-quarter earnings due on May 28, analysts across the board expect Nvidia to overshoot expectations once more.
Burry, apparently, is not so confident.
Michael Burry rose to notoriety as he made millions from predicting the subprime mortgage crisis and shorting the housing market. Individual investors now follow his portfolio closely and tend to take his bearish warnings to heart.
Should ordinary shareholders dump NVDA just because the Big Short hero has seemingly turned skeptical on Nvidia? Let’s take a look.
Michael Burry Shorts Nvidia
Scion’s first‑quarter form 13F lists just seven positions and highlights put options on Nvidia alongside bearish wagers against Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), JD (JD), PDD Holdings (PDD), and Trip.com (TRIP). The notional value of those puts is included in Scion’s $199 million of reportable assets, yet the document does not reveal strike price, expiration, or whether the contracts hedge undisclosed long positions . In other words, we know Burry is negative on Nvidia, but we do not know if he expects a swift collapse or just wants insurance on an unseen long position. There is a chance that he may hold long positions that are not eligible to be disclosed on the filing.
Burry has leaned bearish before and not always for long. He bought $1.6 billion of S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and Nasdaq‑100 Index ($IUXX) puts in mid‑2023, then closed them at a profit within one quarter. He shorted Tesla (TSLA) in 2021 and bailed months later. History shows that he trades around catalysts rather than sitting on ideological shorts.
Investors should also note that while Burry is largely influential, it is never wise to follow an individual without doing your own research and evaluating your own investment thesis. Following Burry alone is not a guarantee of gains.
How This Could Play Out
Nvidia has been beating forecasts for the past two years, and Blackwell chips are still sold out. There’s no indication that the company has taken a big hit, minus the tariff-related charges of $5.5 billion announced earlier. Management guided for $43 billion in Q1 revenue, which was above the $41 billion Wall Street estimated back then. On top of that, most hyperscalers have only increased their capital expenditure forecasts in recent earnings reports. Their data centers run almost exclusively on Nvidia’s silicon.
So, Nvidia could simply continue what it has been doing.
Or, Burry could be the odd one out again. There are two ways I see Nvidia failing. The first one is a bigger-than-expected hit from the Q1 U.S.-China trade war, and the second is a production bottleneck. The Blackwell bottleneck from design flaws has been lingering around since Q3 2024, and Nvidia still performed well, so it’s unlikely to be a big problem now. The first scenario is likely what Burry is betting on.
Should You Follow Burry on NVDA stock?
Michael Burry is betting big on a broader market decline, and this could be just another short-term move. Nvidia releases its earnings soon, and considering the stock is sitting on a fresh rally, it could move down due to technical reasons ahead of earnings before fundamentals take over. I’d recommend sticking to your own thesis (whether bullish or bearish) on Nvidia instead of letting one person dictate your moves.
On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
/Technology%20abstract%20by%20TU%20IS%20via%20iStock.jpg)
