S&P Futures Slip as U.S. House Passes Trump’s Tax Bill, PMI Data in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.33% this morning as longer-dated Treasury yields climbed after U.S. President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill narrowly passed the House, with investors now turning their attention to U.S. business activity data.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended lower. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the cybersecurity firm provided a tepid FQ4 revenue forecast. Also, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slid more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the Guardian reported that the insurer had quietly paid bonuses to nursing homes to limit hospital transfers for ailing residents. In addition, Wolfspeed (WOLF) plummeted over -59% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the chip-component maker was preparing to file for bankruptcy in the coming weeks. On the bullish side, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose more than +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the Google parent announced it will roll out “AI mode” in search to all U.S. users.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the tax and spending bill in Washington. On Wednesday night, House Republican leaders released a revised version of the bill that includes a higher cap on the deduction for state and local taxes, along with several other changes. The tax bill narrowly passed the House on Thursday morning and now heads to the Senate, with a vote on approval expected by August.

In other news, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Thursday he can’t rule out the possibility that the U.S. economy will enter stagflation as the nation grapples with significant risks from geopolitics, deficits, and inflationary pressures.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the May Manufacturing PMI will come in at 49.9, compared to last month’s value of 50.2.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 50.8 in April. Economists expect the preliminary May figure to be 51.0.

U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee the April figure standing at 4.15M, compared to 4.02M in March.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 230K, compared to 229K last week.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from New York Fed President John Williams.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Intuit (INTU), Analog Devices (ADI), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Copart (CPRT), and Ross Stores (ROST) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.7% probability of no rate change and a 5.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at June’s monetary policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.625%, up +0.61%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.71% this morning as investors digested flash PMI data from the region as well as headlines on tariffs and geopolitics, while concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook continued to weigh on sentiment. Financial and industrial stocks led the declines on Thursday. Also dampening sentiment was the fading likelihood of peace talks bringing an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia in the near future. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump, during a call on Monday, told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the Ukraine war because he believes he is winning. Meanwhile, a survey released on Thursday revealed that Eurozone business activity unexpectedly fell back into contraction in May as the bloc’s key services sector experienced a sharper decline in demand, though manufacturing continued to show signs of stabilization. Separately, a survey showed that German business sentiment improved slightly more than anticipated in May, driven by less pessimistic expectations. “The German economy is slowly regaining its footing,” Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. In other news, EU Commissioner for Economy and Productivity Valdis Dombrovskis said that U.S.-brokered agreements with major trading partners could help ease elevated uncertainty in the business community and financial markets, though he described them as a “suboptimal” solution. In corporate news, Johnson Matthey Plc (JMAT.LN) jumped over +27% after the British chemicals firm agreed to sell its unit to Honeywell International for 1.8 billion pounds ($2.4 billion), including debt.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index, Eurozone’s Composite PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

The German May Ifo Business Climate Index stood at 87.5, stronger than expectations of 87.4.

Eurozone May Composite PMI has been reported at 49.5, weaker than expectations of 50.7.

Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI arrived at 48.4, weaker than expectations of 49.2.

Eurozone May Services PMI came in at 48.9, weaker than expectations of 50.4.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.22%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.84%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today, tracking weakness in global markets amid growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook. Sentiment was dampened by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tax bill, projected to add more than $3 trillion to the already sizable U.S. debt, could spark financial instability and dent global risk appetite. Most Chinese sectors ended in the red today. Still, bank stocks outperformed. China’s recent move to cut key rates, including deposit interest rates at major state-owned banks, was expected to prompt smaller lenders to follow suit in an effort to ease pressure from narrowing interest margins. Mining stocks also advanced. Meanwhile, China said on Wednesday that trade talks with the U.S. marked an important step toward narrowing differences, but emphasized that what is truly needed is “indispensable” multilateralism to resolve the global trade turmoil. In other news, Yan Bojin, Chief Risk Officer at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at a Thursday news briefing that China will offer a more efficient, transparent, and predictable regulatory environment to support technology companies seeking overseas listings. In corporate news, Baidu slid about -4% in Hong Kong after Daiwa Securities Group lowered its projections for the search engine’s advertising revenue.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower and hit a 2-week low today as sentiment took a hit following a sharp selloff on Wall Street overnight. U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday as Treasury yields spiked amid concerns that Trump’s proposed tax-cut bill could further swell the federal deficit. In Japan, energy, automobile, and technology stocks underperformed on Thursday. Preliminary business surveys released on Thursday showed that Japan’s manufacturing activity contracted for the eleventh straight month in May, as factories remained under pressure from U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, while the service sector showed some resilience and remained in expansionary territory. Separately, data showed that Japan’s monthly core machinery orders unexpectedly jumped in March, reaching their highest level in nearly two decades, driven by strong demand in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan policy board member Asahi Noguchi on Thursday adopted a more cautious stance regarding the pace of future interest rate hikes, stating that the bank should pursue “a measured, step-by-step approach.” He also stated that the central bank does not need to implement major changes to its bond tapering plan and should only increase purchases during periods of “severe market disruption.” The comments sparked a jump in Japanese government bond yields on Thursday. In other news, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not discuss foreign exchange levels after the U.S. stated that both sides agreed the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals. Investor focus remains on the outcome of U.S. trade negotiations with Japan. TV Tokyo reported on Thursday that Japan’s trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed to hold talks next week. Investors also await the release of Japan’s national core CPI data for April, which is scheduled for Friday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +7.95% to 25.40.

The Japanese May au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 49.0, in line with expectations.

The Japanese March Core Machinery Orders came in at +13.0% m/m and +8.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of -1.5% m/m and -2.2% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Snowflake (SNOW) surged over +11% in pre-market trading after the cloud-based data storage company posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) soared more than +18% in pre-market trading after the conglomerate of apparel brands reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results.

Nike (NKE) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after the sportswear giant announced plans to begin selling products on Amazon.com’s U.S. site for the first time in more than five years.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) jumped more than +12% in pre-market trading after AT&T agreed to acquire the company’s residential fiber broadband network for $5.75 billion.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Humana (HUM), and CVS Health Corp. (CVS) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it would expand its auditing of Medicare Advantage plans.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - May 22nd

Intuit (INTU), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), Analog Devices (ADI), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Copart (CPRT), Ross Stores (ROST), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Ralph Lauren A (RL), BJs Wholesale Club (BJ), Stepstone (STEP), CSW Industrials Inc (CSWI), Cavco (CVCO), Corporacion America Airports (CAAP), Lionsgate Studios (LION), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), ePlus (PLUS), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD), Thermon (THR), Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG), Silvercorp Metals (SVM), Titan Machinery (TITN), Nano X (NNOX), Himalaya Shipping (HSHP), Sunlands Tech (STG).