Stocks Slip Before the Open With Focus on U.S. Retail Sales Data and Powell’s Remarks, Walmart Earnings on Tap

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.59%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.77% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as a rally sparked by the U.S.-China tariff deal cooled, while investors look ahead to a raft of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and an earnings report from retail giant Walmart.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500, extending Tuesday’s gains after Saudi Arabia-based data center company DataVolt signed a multi-year partnership agreement with the company. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Arm Holdings (ARM) climbing more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising over +4%. In addition, Exelixis (EXEL) soared more than +20% after the biotechnology firm posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. On the bearish side, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) slumped over -6% after the apparel chain withdrew its full-year guidance due to macro uncertainty.

“As trade tensions ease, investors are pivoting back to fundamentals, but they may not like what they see. The market has raced from oversold to overbought in record time. That limits near-term upside unless we see a clear re-acceleration in growth,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. 

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that India has proposed eliminating tariffs on U.S. goods, even as bilateral trade negotiations between the two nations continue. “They’ve offered us a deal where basically they’re willing to literally charge us no tariff,” Trump said.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated on Wednesday that tariffs and the associated uncertainty could dampen growth and boost inflation this year, but monetary policy remains well-positioned to respond as needed. “If the increases in tariffs announced so far are sustained, they are likely to interrupt progress on disinflation and generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” Jefferson said. Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that policymakers should avoid reacting to daily fluctuations in equities and policy announcements, noting that current economic data remain steady.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.7% chance of no rate change and an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at June’s monetary policy meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks on the central bank’s monetary policy review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference later today. Also, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak today.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Walmart (WMT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), and Take-Two (TTWO) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that April Retail Sales will be unchanged m/m following a +1.4% m/m jump in March.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.5% m/m in March. Economists expect the April figure to be +0.3% m/m.

The U.S. Producer Price Index will be closely monitored today. Economists foresee the U.S. April PPI coming in at +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, compared to the previous figures of -0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y.

The U.S. Core PPI will be released today. Economists expect April figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, compared to the March numbers of -0.1% m/m and +3.3% y/y.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be reported today. Economists forecast April Industrial Production at +0.2% m/m and Manufacturing Production at -0.2% m/m, compared to the March figures of -0.3% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.

The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the Empire State Manufacturing Index will come in today. Economists anticipate the Philly Fed manufacturing index to be -11.3 and the Empire State manufacturing index to be -8.20 in May, compared to last month’s values of -26.4 and -8.10, respectively. 

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 229K, compared to 228K last week.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.507%, down -0.46%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.39% this morning as the rally sparked by the U.S.-China trade truce waned and investors shifted their focus to corporate earnings reports and economic data. Energy stocks led the declines on Thursday as oil prices dropped on the prospects of a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement that could lift sanctions and increase supply. Mining stocks also lost ground. Meanwhile, data from Eurostat released on Thursday showed that the Eurozone economy expanded at a slower pace than initially estimated in the first quarter, though employment remained resilient, suggesting the bloc continues to create jobs despite years of sluggish growth. Separately, data showed that the U.K. economy expanded more than anticipated in the first quarter, though a slowdown likely looms due to rising unemployment and a downbeat sentiment among consumers and businesses. In addition, final data from the statistics agency Insee confirmed that France’s annual inflation rate held steady at 0.8% in April for the third consecutive month. In corporate news, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA.D.DX) plunged over -9% after the industrial giant reported lower quarterly sales and orders. Also, Merck KGaA (MRK.D.DX) slumped more than -5% after the pharmaceutical company cut its full-year guidance.

U.K.’s GDP (preliminary), France’s CPI, Eurozone’s GDP (second estimate), Eurozone’s Employment Change (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Industrial Production data were released today.

U.K. GDP has been reported at +0.7% q/q and +1.3% y/y in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.6% q/q and +1.2% y/y.

U.K. March GDP stood at +0.2% m/m and +1.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.0% y/y.

The French April CPI arrived at +0.6% m/m and +0.8% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.5% m/m and +0.8% y/y.

Eurozone GDP came in at +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y in the first quarter, compared to expectations of +0.4% q/q and +1.2% y/y.

Eurozone Employment Change arrived at +0.3% q/q and +0.6% y/y in the first quarter, compared to expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.8% y/y.

Eurozone March Industrial Production stood at +2.6% m/m and +3.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.9% m/m and +2.5% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.68%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.98%. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, snapping a 3-day winning streak as investors digested weaker credit data from the country and looked for direction amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions. AI-related and defense stocks led the declines on Thursday. At the same time, shipping and port stocks continued to climb on hopes that the de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war would spur a recovery in shipping demand and freight rates. In another indication of easing trade tensions, China on Wednesday lifted restrictions on exports of rare earths and other goods and technologies intended for military use. Still, analysts warned that the absence of a long-term trade deal continues to cast uncertainty over China’s economic outlook. Data released on Wednesday showed that China’s new bank loans fell more sharply than expected in April, as the prolonged trade war with the U.S. further dampened market appetite during what is typically a sluggish month for loan demand. In other news, China’s previously announced 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for banks took effect today, with state media outlet Securities Daily reporting that there remains room for additional cuts later in the year. In corporate news, Tencent Holdings slid -0.2% in Hong Kong after the company reported mixed Q1 results. Investors now await an earnings report from Alibaba.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today, continuing its pullback from a nearly 3-month high. Export-oriented stocks such as automakers and electronics slumped on Thursday as the yen strengthened for a third consecutive day, reducing the value of Japanese exporters’ foreign earnings. An overnight report that U.S. and South Korean officials held talks last week on the exchange rate triggered a rally in the Korean won, which in turn lifted the yen. The benchmark index had surged 25% from its April 7th low to Tuesday’s high, driven in part by growing optimism over a series of U.S. trade agreements that could eliminate the risk of a global recession. However, investors are still awaiting any updates on a trade deal between Japan and the U.S., after the Asian country was among the first to formally enter negotiations. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Thursday that Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, could head to Washington as early as next week for a third round of trade negotiations with the U.S. Japan is weighing a set of proposals to secure U.S. concessions that could involve boosting imports of U.S. corn and soy, enhancing technical cooperation in shipbuilding, and revising inspection standards for imported cars, according to the report. In other news, Japan’s equity markets drew approximately 439 billion yen in foreign inflows during the week ended May 10th, as overseas investors extended their net buying streak to a sixth consecutive week. Investor focus is now on Japan’s preliminary GDP data, scheduled for release on Friday, which is expected to show that the nation’s economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in a year. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +3.98% to 22.72.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slumped over -5% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice was investigating the company for possible Medicare fraud.

Energy stocks are falling in pre-market trading as oil prices tumbled on the prospects of a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement that could lift sanctions and increase supply. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Schlumberger (SLB) are down more than -1%.

DXC Technology (DXC) plunged over -14% in pre-market trading after the information-technology consultant issued below-consensus guidance for FQ1 and FY26.

Foot Locker (FL) spiked about +69% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Dick’s Sporting Goods was nearing a deal to buy the company for about $2.3 billion.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat FQ3 results and raised its full-year guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - May 15th

Walmart (WMT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), NetEase (NTES), Take-Two (TTWO), Credicorp (BAP), CAVA Group (CAVA), Doximity (DOCS), Birkenstock Holding Ltd (BIRK), ADS (WMS), Globant SA (GLOB), South Bow (SOBO), Marex (MRX), Bitdeer Tech (BTDR), Hafnia (HAFN), Acuren (TIC), Quantum (QUBT), Youdao (DAO), Gaotu Techedu DRC (GOTU), Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ), Gambling.com Group (GAMB), Taysha Gene (TSHA), KULR Technology Group (KULR).