Wheat Extending Weakness Following Larger USDA Numbers

Wheat futures are extending the weakness into the new week, with contracts down across the three exchanges. Chicago SRW futures are posting Monday losses of 2 to 3 cents so far on the day. There were 5 deliveries against May CBT wheat on Friday evening.  Kansas City HRW futures are facing pressure, with contracts 4 to 5 cents lower. Minneapolis spring wheat futures are 6 to 7 cents in the red.

USDA’s Export Inspections report indicated a total of 405,170 (14.88 mbu) of wheat shipped in the week that ended on 5/8. That was down just 1.61% from the previous week but 5.77% above the same week in 2024. The Philippines was the top destination of 127,569 MT, with 83,779 MT headed to Mexico. Marketing year shipments have totaled 20.28 MMT (649.1 mbu), which is up 14.79% compared to the same week last year.

Wheat production via the Crop Production report showed winter wheat at 1.382 billion bushel, with HRW at 784 mbu, SRW tallied at 345 mbu and white winter at 253 mbu. All wheat production shown in the WASDE was 1.921 billion bushels above trade estimates. 

Old crop US balance sheets tallied the US carryout at 841 mbu, a 5 mbu reduction from last month. New crop was pegged at 923 mbu with the large production figure. For the world stocks, USDA showed a 4.51 MMT increase to 265.21 MMT, with the first release for new crop at 265.73 MMT. 

Expectations ahead of the weekly Crop Progress update are for spring wheat to be 62% planted. Winter wheat conditions are estimated to be steady this week at 51%.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.19 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.33 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.12 1/2, down 5 cents,

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.27, down 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.86 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.00, down 6 1/2 cents,