European Commodities: German Stocks Approach Double-Top Resistance

Weekly European Commodity Winners

Alum. Alloy Official (R7Y00), +4.43%

China, accounting for approximately 60% of global aluminium production, is nearing its government-imposed annual capacity limit of 45 million tonnes, per Reuters. The market is following the potential supply constraint in global markets.

According to the latest ING report, Rusal, a major aluminium producer outside China, has announced production cuts of up to 500,000 tonnes due to soaring alumina costs. Sanctions and trade restrictions have further limited Russian aluminium exports.

Finally, U.S. tariffs on aluminium imports (at 25%) are currently disrupting the markets. It remains to be seen for how long such tariffs will hold, as U.S. domestic production only covers 15% of demand.

German DAX Futures (DYM25), +4.35%

Several major German companies - Rheinmetall (RNMBY), Deutsche Bank (DB) and Siemens Energy (SMNEY) - reported strong first-quarter results, boosting investor confidence. Investor sentiment improved following indications that the U.S. might ease tariffs on auto parts for vehicles manufactured domestically.

The market is hoping for easing U.S.-China trade tensions and the mood went back to a "risk-on" environment.

Technically, the DAX has shown an impressive V-shape recovery from the initial trade war shock, when it reached a low on April 7. Prices have been rocketing since then. 

Attention long traders: the DAX is approaching a tough resistance at 23,700. It made a double top on March 19 near that level.

Steel Scrap Turkey (C-K25), +2.73%

In Q1 2025, Turkey's deep-sea bulk steel scrap imports reached 4.53 million metric tonnes, a 15% increase year-over-year. However, weak domestic and export demand for finished steel products has led to cautious purchasing behavior among mills.

The latest reports show that Turkey has been enhancing its domestic scrap collection, reaching approximately 12 million metric tonnes per year, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and stabilize supply.

Technically, daily prices are moving below the 50-day, and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), and have just broken to the upside of the 10-day EMA. There was record volume action on the low reached on April 24. This indicates that 321 is a solid support level for those looking to enter, if prices pull back here.

Prices are at multi-year lows, so the risk for further downside at that support is limited.

European Commodity Losers This Week

Crude Oil Brent (CBN25), -8.77%

On the supply side, OPEC+ announced plans to increase crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June 2025, adding to the 549,000 bpd increase from April through May. There are concerns about oversupply in the oil markets. 

On the demand side, overall imports were down by 280,000 bpd year-on-year for the first four months of 2025. No doubt the uncertainties about the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are a key factor.

The Brent contract is clearly in a downtrend below the 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs. The 20 EMA is working as an effective resistance so far, giving an edge to short traders. That said, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fast approaching an oversold level. Watch out for the 58.50 level as key support; a break below here for more than a session will encourage further short positions. 

Long traders can take an attempt in the area around 58-58.50 and enter using a proper stop-loss, as this area could be hard to break further down.

White Sugar #5 (SWQ25) -4.73%

In India, sugar production is anticipated to fall to a five-year low of 26.4 MMT, a 17.5% decrease from the previous season. In Brazil, where drought conditions are an issue, output is expected to decline 3.4% from the previous year.

The ISO anticipates a global sugar deficit of 4.88 MMT for the 2024-25 season, marking a shift from the previous year's surplus and raising concerns about the market balance.

However, the market in this commodity has been affected indirectly by the ongoing trade war, and raw sugar futures are also affected by concerns over a reduction of future demand. 

Market prices are trading below the 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs, but this downtrend for now is slowing in speed. The area around 485-488 offers important support, and short traders should wait for break below there before increasing positions. This contract uses the 50-day EMA as key resistance, so look for breakouts there for trend-changing signals. 

If 480 is broken to the downside, the next target is 460.