Stocks Set to Extend Rally on Fed Reprieve and Trade Optimism, U.S. PMI Data and Earnings in Focus

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are up +2.01%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are up +2.51% this morning, extending yesterday’s rally as sentiment got a boost after the Trump administration’s move to alleviate some of the tensions unsettling investors.

Investors found relief after U.S. President Donald Trump said he doesn’t plan to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Also, hopes for easing U.S.-China trade tensions further boosted risk appetite. President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that U.S. tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods will be reduced “substantially” if the two sides can reach a deal. “We’re going to be very nice and they’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump said. 

Futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed as Tesla (TSLA) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading, even after the EV maker reported disappointing Q1 results, as CEO Elon Musk said he would “significantly” scale back his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency.

Investors now gear up for U.S. business activity data and the next round of corporate earnings reports. 

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Equifax (EFX) surged more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and provided solid Q2 guidance. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) rising over +4% and Amazon.com (AMZN) gaining more than +3%. In addition, 3M Company (MMM) climbed over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the industrial conglomerate posted better-than-expected Q1 results and reaffirmed its FY25 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bearish side, Northrop Grumman (NOC) plunged more than -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the aerospace and defense company cut its FY25 adjusted EPS guidance.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to a 5-month low of -13 in April, weaker than expectations of -6.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy could lead to an economic pullback and a potential recession if no resolution is reached. “The last two months have been the sharpest reduction of confidence in the ten years I’ve been at the Fed, except for March 2020 when Covid hit,” Kashakri said. He also emphasized that the independence of the Fed’s monetary policy is fundamental and crucial to achieving better economic outcomes. Separately, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stated that tariffs are likely to exert upward pressure on prices and have a bigger economic impact than initially anticipated.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.6% chance of no rate change and a 7.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s May meeting.

First-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with investors awaiting new reports from notable companies today, including Philip Morris (PM), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Boeing (BA). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the April Manufacturing PMI will come in at 49.0, compared to last month’s value of 50.2.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 54.4 in March. Economists expect the preliminary April figure to be 52.8.

U.S. New Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 684K in March, compared to 676K in February.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 1.600M, compared to last week’s value of 0.515M.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

Later today, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book will offer insight into the extent to which government policy and uncertainty are affecting business decisions. The report is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.341%, down -1.09%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +2.51% this morning as U.S. President Donald Trump’s assurance that he won’t fire the Fed chief and optimism of easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted sentiment. Technology stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Investors found relief after President Trump said he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Also boosting sentiment was Trump’s softer tone on China tariffs, as he told reporters on Tuesday that he would be “very nice” in negotiations with Beijing. Meanwhile, a survey released on Wednesday showed that business growth in the Eurozone stalled in April, as activity in the bloc’s dominant services sector contracted and the extended slump in manufacturing persisted. In corporate news, SAP SE (SAP.D.DX) surged over +10% after the German software giant reported stronger-than-expected Q1 adjusted operating profit. Also, BP Plc (BP-.LN) gained more than +4% after activist investor Elliott boosted its stake in the oil major to more than 5%.

Eurozone’s Composite PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

Eurozone April Composite PMI has been reported at 50.1, weaker than expectations of 50.3.

Eurozone April Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7, stronger than expectations of 47.4.

Eurozone April Services PMI stood at 49.7, weaker than expectations of 50.4.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.10%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.89%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today as investors remained cautious even after the latest remarks from the Trump administration. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he expects a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that U.S. tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods will be reduced “substantially” after the two sides negotiate a deal. China has not officially responded to Trump’s pledge to be “very nice” in any trade talks with the Asian nation, but the media outlet Cailian described it as “a sign that Trump is already softening stance on his signature tariff policies.” Meanwhile, investors remained wary of Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts and significant uncertainty about the prospects of bilateral trade relations with the U.S., especially given President Xi Jinping’s firm stance in the tariff war. Commerzbank economists said in a note, “We think that any deal between China and the U.S. that will result in lower tariffs is unlikely to happen any time soon.” In other news, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4% from 4.6% amid rising global tariffs and trade uncertainty. Investors are looking ahead to the upcoming month-end politburo meeting for signals on potential policy support to mitigate the economic fallout from tariffs. In corporate news, BYD rose over +4% after the EV maker proposed new plans for profit distribution and capital reserve capitalization.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, hitting a 3-week high as an overnight rally on Wall Street prompted investors to scoop up beaten-down stocks. Sentiment got an extra boost after U.S. President Donald Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and added that he plans to be “very nice” to China during any trade negotiations. Electronics, automobile, and financial stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Preliminary business surveys released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s factory activity contracted for the tenth straight month in April, with manufacturers’ confidence plunging to nearly a 5-year low, while service sector activity returned to growth as customer demand continued to improve. Meanwhile, investors continue to closely monitor developments related to U.S. tariffs following the “big progress” in the Japan-U.S. trade talks last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is scheduled to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington this week, with the yen expected to be a key topic of discussion, though Reuters reported that Tokyo will resist any demands to prop up its currency. In other news, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its 2025 growth forecast for Japan to 0.6% from 1.1%, citing escalating trade tensions. In corporate news, Fujifilm Holdings climbed over +8% after Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced it had entered into an agreement valued at over $3 billion with the healthcare firm’s drug unit. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -11.18% to 29.88.

The Japanese April au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) arrived at 48.5, weaker than expectations of 48.7.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Tesla (TSLA) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading, even after the EV maker reported disappointing Q1 results, as CEO Elon Musk said he would “significantly” scale back his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency.

Intel (INTC) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that the struggling chipmaker is set to announce plans this week to slash over 20% of its workforce.

American Express (AXP) gained over +3% in pre-market trading after Redburn Atlantic upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell.

Intuit (INTU) advanced more than +1% in pre-market trading after HSBC upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $699.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after reporting downbeat Q1 results and issuing weak Q2 revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 23rd

Philip Morris (PM), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), ServiceNow Inc (NOW), Boston Scientific (BSX), Texas Instruments (TXN), NextEra Energy (NEE), Boeing (BA), CME Group (CME), GE Vernova LLC (GEV), Lam Research (LRCX), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Amphenol (APH), General Dynamics (GD), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Newmont Goldcorp (NEM), Waste Connections (WCN), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Discover (DFS), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), TE Connectivity (TEL), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), United Rentals (URI), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), ResMed (RMD), Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), FirstEnergy (FE), Tyler Technologies (TYL), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Check Point Software (CHKP), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Lennox (LII), Watsco (WSO), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Carlisle (CSL), Reliance Steel&Aluminum (RS), Avery Dennison (AVY), Rogers Communications (RCI), Graco (GGG), Masco (MAS), Renaissancere (RNR), Penumbra Inc (PEN), CACI (CACI), SEI (SEIC), Stifel (SF), Chemed (CHE), EastGroup Properties (EGP), Lithia Motors (LAD), Churchill Downs (CHDN), New Oriental Education&Tech (EDU), RLI (RLI), Mr. Cooper (COOP), TFI Intl (TFII), Knight-Swift Trans (KNX), Prosperity Bancshares (PB), Popular (BPOP), Essential Properties (EPRT), First American (FAF), Virtu Financial Inc (VIRT), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), Ryder System (R), Alaska Air (ALK), Selective (SIGI), GATX (GATX), Matador (MTDR), Meritage (MTH), Robert Half (RHI), Element Solutions (ESI), Whirlpool (WHR), Moelis & Co (MC), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), Western Union (WU), Plexus (PLXS), M/I Homes (MHO), First Hawaiian (FHB), Travel + Leisure Co (TNL), Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX), ASGN (ASGN), Banc of California (BANC), Quantumscape (QS), Impinj (PI), Century Communities (CCS), Stewart Info Services (STC), Oceaneering International (OII), OFG Bancorp (OFG), Veris Residential (VRE), Bank of N.T. Butterfield Son (NTB), Getty (GTY), Imax (IMAX), Live Oak Bancshares Inc (LOB), PROG Holdings (PRG).