Nasdaq Futures Plunge After Nvidia Curbs, U.S. Retail Sales Data and Powell Speech in Focus

June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are trending down -1.22% this morning as sentiment took a hit after the Trump administration imposed new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China.

The Trump administration has barred Nvidia from selling its H20 chip in China, further escalating the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The U.S. government notified Nvidia that the company must now obtain a license to export its H20 processors to China and several other countries, according to a Tuesday filing. The chipmaker cautioned it would incur up to $5.5 billion in related charges in its fiscal first-quarter results. As a result, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) slumped over -5% in pre-market trading.

U.S. equity futures trimmed some of their losses after Bloomberg News reported that China wants the Trump administration to take several steps before agreeing to trade talks, including demonstrating more respect by curbing disparaging comments from cabinet members.

Investors now await remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as well as a raft of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended lower. Boeing (BA) fell over -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after Bloomberg reported that China had ordered its airlines to stop taking deliveries of the company’s jets. Also, Albemarle (ALB) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after three brokerages lowered their price targets on the stock. In addition, Allegro Microsystems (ALGM) plunged over -9% after ON Semiconductor withdrew its $6.9 billion takeover offer. On the bullish side, Netflix (NFLX) climbed more than +4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the streaming giant aims to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization and double its revenue by 2030.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. import price index unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m in March, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Also, the U.S. March export price index was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m. In addition, the Empire State manufacturing index came in at -8.10 in April, stronger than expectations of -12.80.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech on the economic outlook before the Economic Club of Chicago later today. Also, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak today.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 79.9% probability of no rate change and a 20.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that March Retail Sales will stand at +1.3% m/m, compared to the February figure of +0.2% m/m.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.3% m/m in February. Economists expect the March figure to be +0.4% m/m.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be reported today. Economists forecast March Industrial Production at -0.2% m/m and Manufacturing Production at +0.3% m/m, compared to February’s figures of +0.7% m/m and +0.9% m/m, respectively.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure standing at 0.400M, compared to last week’s value of 2.553M.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Travelers (TRV), and CSX Corporation (CSX) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.312%, down -0.25%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.71% this morning as trade tensions between the U.S. and China continued to escalate, while investors digested inflation data from the region and a new round of corporate earnings. Technology stocks led the declines on Wednesday, with ASML Holding (ASML.NA) sinking over -5% after the world’s biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment reported weaker-than-expected Q1 net bookings. The company also cautioned that tariffs were adding uncertainty to its outlook for 2025 and 2026. Adding further pressure to the tech sector, Nvidia announced that the U.S. government imposed new restrictions on the company’s chip exports to China. On the economic front, final data from Eurostat confirmed on Wednesday that the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February. Separately, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that British annual inflation cooled for the second consecutive month in March. Meanwhile, the European Union and the U.S. faced challenges in resolving trade disagreements this week as White House officials stated that the majority of the U.S. tariffs imposed on the bloc would remain in place. Investors now look ahead to the European Central Bank’s rate-setting meeting on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to lower the deposit rate by another 25 basis points to 2.25% as U.S. tariffs continue to threaten growth. In other corporate news, Bunzl Plc (BNZL.LN) plummeted over -23% after the British business supplies distributor lowered its full-year guidance and suspended its share buyback program.

U.K.’s CPI, U.K.’s Core CPI, Eurozone’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Core CPI data were released today.

U.K. March CPI has been reported at +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y.

U.K. March Core CPI came in at +0.5% m/m and +3.4% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone March CPI arrived at +0.6% m/m and +2.2% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone March Core CPI stood at +1.0% m/m and +2.4% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.26%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.01%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today as a slew of upbeat economic data from the country outweighed fears of an expanding U.S.-China trade war. The benchmark index eked out a small gain just before the close, having spent most of the day in negative territory. Local media reported that state-backed “National Team” investors may have purchased A-shares during afternoon trading as volume surged in some exchange-traded funds tracking major indexes. Semiconductor stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Official data released on Wednesday showed that China’s economy demonstrated unexpected strength in the first quarter, buoyed by consumer subsidies and a surge in export shipments ahead of tariffs. Other monthly economic indicators pointed to some improvements in the world’s second-largest economy, with retail sales and industrial production rising more than expected. Still, the escalating trade war with the U.S. has clouded the outlook and increased pressure on Beijing to implement additional stimulus measures. Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said, “The damage from the trade war will show up in the macro data next month. The uncertainty is extremely high for corporates and investors.” Meanwhile, the Trump administration imposed new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China. The repercussions could impact earnings in the chip sector and hinder China’s ambitions to compete in the global AI arena. Also, Trump ordered an investigation into potential new tariffs on critical mineral imports, many of which are sourced from China. In addition, reports emerged that the U.S. is leveraging tariff negotiations to pressure allies to curb China’s economic influence. While Trump called on Beijing to initiate contact to begin negotiations, Chinese officials have shown no indication of backing down.

The Chinese GDP has been reported at +1.2% q/q and +5.4% y/y in the first quarter, compared to expectations of +1.4% q/q and +5.2% y/y.

The Chinese March Industrial Production arrived at +7.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +5.9% y/y.

The Chinese March Retail Sales stood at +5.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.2% y/y.

The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment came in at +4.2% y/y in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of +4.1% y/y.

The Chinese March Unemployment Rate was 5.2%, stronger than expectations of 5.3%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, snapping a two-day winning streak. Chip stocks led the declines on Wednesday after Nvidia announced that the U.S. government is restricting exports of a key chip to China and ASML reported disappointing Q1 orders. Government data released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s monthly core machinery orders rebounded sharply in February. Separately, a Reuters Tankan survey showed that Japanese manufacturers reported improved business sentiment in April compared to March, though they remain pessimistic about their outlook for the next three months as they prepare for the impact of U.S. import tariffs. Meanwhile, the Sankei newspaper reported on Wednesday that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign has pushed the Japanese economy into a “bad scenario” that may compel the central bank to respond with a policy action. “Although a policy response may be necessary depending on the situation, we will make an appropriate decision depending on the changing situation,” Ueda said. Investor focus is now on trade talks between Washington and Tokyo. Japan’s chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is set to visit Washington from April 16th to 18th to initiate formal discussions with his U.S. counterparts, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Tokyo will persist in its efforts to secure a full withdrawal of all additional tariffs imposed and threatened by the Trump administration, Akazawa told reporters on Tuesday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +2.18% to 35.20.

The Japanese February Core Machinery Orders arrived at +4.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.1% m/m and -1.4% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) slumped over -5% in pre-market trading after the Trump administration imposed new restrictions on the company’s chip exports to China.

United Airlines (UAL) climbed more than +6% in pre-market trading after the carrier posted better-than-expected Q1 results.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) slid over -6% in pre-market trading after the transportation and logistics company logged lower Q1 profit and revenue.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) fell more than -7% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 adjusted EPS.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $575.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 16th

Abbott Labs (ABT), Prologis (PLD), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Travelers (TRV), CSX (CSX), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), First Horizon National (FHN), Rexford Inl Rty (REXR), Alcoa (AA), Autoliv (ALV), First Industrial RT (FR), Synovus (SNV), Home BancShares (HOMB), Bank Ozk (OZK), FNB (FNB), SL Green (SLG), Cohen Steers (CNS), Simmons First National (SFNC), Banner (BANR), Liberty Oilfield (LBRT), Triumph Bancorp (TFIN).