How to Trade a Tariff Tantrum: Barchart Experts Weigh In

The U.S. stock market has experienced wild volatility following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements, with the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) plummeting nearly 12% since the April “Liberation Day” declaration. Even traditional “safe haven” assets have been caught up in the selling pressure, with the front-month gold futures contract (GCJ25) down by 2.6% over the past week.

Despite the potential for a sharp bounce, with many equity benchmarks now deeply oversold, overall investor sentiment remains cautious - especially given China’s combative stance against additional U.S. tariffs. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) has soared above 50 as investors grapple with both the direct impact of the baseline 10% tariff on most imports and escalating global trade tensions. 

To help investors navigate this spiraling uncertainty, we’ve rounded up insights and wisdom from some of our top Barchart analysts. Here’s what our team has to say about trading the 2025 “tariff tantrum.”

Technical Signals for Every Time Frame

My advice is be patient and rational and follow the data, especially what I think are the 3 most valuable Barchart momentum indicators: (1) for the short term, Trend Seeker; (2) for the mid-term, Barchart Opinion; and (3) for the long term, Weighted Alpha.

• Jim Van Meerten is the author of Barchart’s free Chart of the Day newsletter.

Make Up for the Stocks You Missed

“Trump’s tariffs are an analyst's worst nightmare. They make forecasting earnings impossible and during the upcoming earnings, many companies might not provide quarterly guidance given the uncertainty over tariffs.”

“However, the market crash is also an opportunity to add those stocks that one missed out on previously. I opened a new position in HP (HP), Netflix (NFLX), and Bank of America (BAC) while adding more shares of Citi (C), Amazon (AMZN) and SoFi (SOFI).”

• Mohit Oberoi is a regular contributor to Barchart’s free daily Dividend Investor newsletter.

Markets Don’t Lie

“We can’t believe what we hear, see, or read about the U.S. administration. This creates uncertainty, and we know long-term investors don’t like uncertainty. This is a game being played - think of it as a staged professional wrestling match - where nothing is actually real. The U.S. administration, much as it did the first time around, says and does things simply to gauge market reaction. To borrow a phrase from ‘Beauty and the Beast,’ it’s a tale as old as time, but in this case it is simply about power and money.” 

“We’ve long clung to the belief, maybe foolishly, that the market doesn’t lie. If we still believe this then we can see the S&P 500 has dropped more than 20%, the historic indicator of a bear market. However, if we also believe there is a good deal of manipulation going on, it could just as easily be argued this 20% break isn’t telling us what we think it is. From a technical point of view, the Index completed a bearish spike reversal at the end of February before falling to a new 4-month low during March. These both tell us the long-term trend has turned down.” 

• Darin Newsom is Barchart’s Senior Market Analyst. Follow his work here.

Value vs. Price

“My feeling about this market, having lived through many corrections like this, including a 23% market decline in one day in 1987, is that investors should remember that a profitable company’s value does not decline just because its stock’s trading price falls.”

“The point is that value investors should try and take advantage of this discrepancy between a company’s long-term value and its stock price. One very easy, extremely simple way to monitor this is to compare a stock’s present dividend yield to its average historical yield. I try to do this in my articles.”

“If a company’s yield is significantly higher than its trailing 12-month (TTM) yield or its average 3 to 5 year yield, it seems reasonable to assume that at some point in the future it will revert to this average yield (by rising to that point). That is, as long as the company is not expected to cut its dividend.”

“I recently pointed this out in my articles on Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Franklin Resources (BEN), as well as my articles on BP (BP) and Chevron (CVX).”

• Mark Hake, CFA, is a regular contributor to the Unusual Options Activity newsletter.

When to Put Cash to Work

“Sir John Templeton once said, ‘the four most dangerous words in investing are “this time it’s different.”’”

“I currently have the largest cash position since the beginning of COVID-19 (~30% in Treasurys) and look forward to selling them off and putting the cash back in equities - soon. Not quite ready yet. But, once I see some clarity, I’ll put the capital to work - I have a feeling it’ll be well within the next 60 days.”

“Incidentally, two of my holdings, Adobe (ADBE) and Thermo Fisher (TMO), just entered oversold territory.”

• Rick Orford is the lead options analyst on Barchart’s YouTube channel.

Wait for the Green Candles

“Don’t tell the market what to do; listen to what the market tells you. As the saying goes, they don't ring a bell at tops and bottoms, but they do bring volume. And remember - ALL trades start with a stop.” 

“Finally, in bear market panics, all asset classes correlate to one, e.g., stocks, gold, oil, etc. Look for the correlation to break, and wait for the green candles.”

• John Rowland, CMT, is Barchart’s Senior Technical Strategist. He hosts the weekly Market on Close livestream each Friday at 2:30 PM Central.

Watch the Oracle

“Markets hate uncertainty, and there is plenty to go around, given the administration’s efforts to level the playing field with punitive and reciprocal tariffs by ripping the bandaid off U.S. trade policy. Time will tell if the trade barriers will lead to substantive results through negotiations. Meanwhile, the administration’s tax package is critical for its economic success. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes, which remain in flux.”

“It is not a time for panic. History teaches that risk-off periods provide investors and traders with the best opportunities. Keep an eye on Warren Buffett’s cash stockpile because if the iconic investor begins buying, the markets are likely near bottoms.”

• Andrew Hecht is a regular columnist for Barchart’s free daily Commodity Bulletin newsletter.

Elizabeth H. Volk, Barchart’s Senior Editorial Director, contributed to this report.