A Robusta Coffee Selloff Gives Some Relief to Roasters and Importers

European Commodity Winners This Week: 

VSTOXX Futures (DVJ25), +47%

In my last article I also started with VSTOXX (DVJ25) as I noted it was indicating increasing bearish tension across all risk markets. Last week, this index hit levels not seen since March 2022.

These sharp increases in the VSTOXX reflect heightened investor anxiety, primarily driven by escalating global trade tensions and substantial equity market losses.

As of April 8, the VSTOXX has shown some retracement from its recent peak, indicating  a potential stabilization in market sentiment. 

However, the index remains elevated compared to historical averages and only values below the 22 mark should signal a market back to “normal risk.”
Feed Wheat (LWX25), +1.5%  

Initial projections for the 2025/26 season indicate a rise in global grain production, with wheat output expected to reach a record 806.7 million tonnes.

The European Union in particular expects a recovery of 13.5 tonnes in the period. 

The European livestock sector depends heavily on grain imports for animal feed and the latest EU plans to impose tariffs on U.S. grain imports are shaking the sector.

A stronger British pound (B6M25) also makes the exports less competitive, so fundamentals are not very supportive for demand in this sector.

Technically, Feed Wheat (LWX25) is trading above the 10- and 20-, but below the 50 EMA. It tried a breakout above the 50 EMA (190.32) but it failed with high volatility revealing this level as a strong resistance. Short traders are very active at this level, so best for those with a long view to wait for the breakout.

The 14-day RSI marks 49.75 and is not indicating any new strong direction.    

Milling Wheat (MLK25), +1.5% 

French wheat continues to face stiff competition from Black Sea region exporters. 

This is despite a slight improvement in crop conditions, with 76% of soft wheat rated as good or excellent.

The latest impressive EURO rally is restraining any fast bullish run here, but watch out for any indication for crop issues as prices are still at a relative low level historically speaking.  

Technicals: The contract made a low a 215 (March 28) in a clear candle pattern of “morning star.” This is promising since then for long traders who entered right after.

It has just crossed upward the 10 (222.53) and 20 (224) EMAs, reassuring long positions on the move. However, it is facing a tough resistance at the 50 (226.95) EMAs.

Watch out for any breakouts from that level as the next target would be 240.

European Commodity Losers This Week: 

Dutch TTF Gas (TGK32), -14 %  

The transition from winter to spring typically leads to reduced natural gas consumption in Europe, exerting downward pressure on prices.

Countries like Germany and Poland are switching from gas to coal in electricity generation. Also LNG supplies are increasing in Europe, which has reduced prices sharply since the start of February 2025.

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Natural Gas May 2025 futures contract has experienced notable price movements. We see a candle capitulation pattern on April 7 with a bottom at 33.5 and record volume for this contract. 

The move remains bearish as the contract is trading below the 10 (39), 20 (40.6) and 50 (43.18) EMAs. However it looks like is taking a pause after that pattern. Watch out at this level for a possible reversal.

Robusta Coffee 10-T (RMN25), -11,27%  

Robusta accounts for 30%–40% of coffee imports into Europe (Arabica dominates the rest) and current U.S. trade policies are also shaking this market.

The ICE Robusta contract for July delivery declined by $328 (-6.4%), settling at $4,800 per metric ton, marking a four-month low.

U.S. tariffs on coffee imports (46% on Vietnamese coffee, 32% on Indonesian) are increasing costs for importers and roasters. As a result, the market is expecting declining demand for coffee globally.

Added to that, Brazil real depreciation directly affects the Arabica type by increasing its exports and total global supply.

Technically, the contract is in a deep downtrend breaking down the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs. The last two days have shown extreme volatility and fund liquidation.

At the current level prices may take a pause as the RSI indicates “Oversold” marking 27. The area 4,700-4,750 has been a solid bottom and this is what is being tested this week. Long traders will be active here.