June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.24%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.25% this morning as investors prepare for U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements while also awaiting the latest reading on U.S. job openings and manufacturing sector surveys.
Market participants nervously brace for a wave of import tariffs taking effect on April 2nd, a day U.S. President Donald Trump has labeled “Liberation Day.” President Trump will announce his reciprocal tariff plan at 3 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday at an event in the White House Rose Garden. Trump on Sunday stated that reciprocal tariffs would initially target “essentially all” countries and reportedly urged his advisers to adopt a more aggressive approach to trade policies. Also, a recently announced 25% tariff on auto imports is set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time on April 3rd. Investors are becoming increasingly worried about the impact of these tariffs on the U.S. and the global economy.
“Tariffs will likely continue to drive the market discussion,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Whether tariffs are more or less rigid than expected could go a long way toward shaping the market’s near-term momentum.”
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Discover Financial (DFS) climbed over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Capitol Forum reported that the Department of Justice was considering approving Capital One’s planned $35.3 billion acquisition of the company. Also, defensive utility stocks gained ground, with Exelon Corp. (EXC) advancing more than +3% and American Electric Power (AEP) rising over +2%. In addition, Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) surged over +14% after Rocket Companies agreed to acquire the mortgage servicer in an all-stock transaction valued at $9.4 billion. On the bearish side, Moderna (MRNA) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Peter Marks, a top vaccine official at the FDA, stepped down.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. Chicago PMI rose to a 16-month high of 47.6 in March, stronger than expectations of 45.5.
New York Fed President John Williams stated on Monday that there is a risk of higher inflation this year, although his baseline expectation is that it will remain relatively stable. “Definitely there’s upside risks depending a lot on these, on the tariffs and other policies that may take place,” Williams said during an interview with Yahoo Finance. Also, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the central bank would need to be confident that inflation is on a downward path before cutting interest rates again.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.9% chance of no rate change and a 13.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in May.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.690M, compared to the January figure of 7.740M.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the March ISM Manufacturing PMI to be 49.5 and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 49.8, compared to the previous values of 50.3 and 52.7, respectively.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure coming in at +0.3% m/m in February, compared to -0.2% m/m in January.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.170%, down -1.77%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.96% this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s slump, while investors digest the latest inflation data from the region and brace for the announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Healthcare and bank stocks outperformed on Tuesday. Preliminary data from Eurostat released on Tuesday showed that the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate eased to a 4-month low in March, reinforcing expectations for another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank later this month. Separately, a survey showed that the Eurozone’s long-struggling manufacturing sector showed early signs of a rebound in March as output grew for the first time in two years, though the recovery could be threatened by U.S. trade tariffs. In addition, data showed that the Eurozone’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a fresh record low in February. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech Tuesday that the European Union remains open to tariff negotiations with the U.S. but will implement retaliatory measures if needed. “We are open to negotiations. We will approach these negotiations from a position of strength. Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures if necessary. All instruments are on the table,” she said. In other news, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 12-month target for Europe’s Stoxx 600 index to 570 from 580, citing weaker growth expectations due to the potential impact of U.S. tariffs. In corporate news, Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.C.DX) gained over +2% after the Danish biotechnology firm received approval from the U.S. FDA for a freeze-dried version of its mpox and smallpox vaccine.
Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone’s CPI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Core CPI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.
Eurozone March Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6, weaker than expectations of 48.7.
Eurozone March CPI arrived at +2.2% y/y, in line with expectations.
Eurozone March Core CPI stood at +2.4% y/y, better than expectations of +2.5% y/y.
Eurozone February Unemployment Rate was 6.1%, stronger than expectations of 6.2%.
Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.02%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as the latest factory activity data from the country boosted sentiment, easing some concerns ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs. Pharmaceutical stocks led the gains on Tuesday. A private sector survey released on Tuesday showed that China’s factory activity grew at the fastest rate in four months in March, supported by stronger demand and solid export orders. Caixin reported that the surveyed companies were optimistic about the near-term economic outlook, though some remained cautious about a possible escalation in global trade tensions. “The economy had a stable start to the year, with signs of further recovery and improvement,” said Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin Insight Group. However, Goldman Sachs analysts cautioned that rising uncertainties from additional trade barriers could affect manufacturing PMI readings in the months ahead. Investor focus is now on President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, which he said will target all countries. China has warned Washington that it will respond with retaliation if the U.S. proceeds with the levies. According to a social media account associated with China’s state broadcaster, China stated that it aims to coordinate its response with Japan and South Korea to upcoming U.S. tariffs. Analysts noted it remains unclear whether China’s policy stimulus will be sufficient and timely enough to counter additional tariff pressure. In corporate news, China Overseas Land and Investment slumped over -4% in Hong Kong after the property developer reported a 40% year-over-year drop in annual net income.
The Chinese March Caixin Manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.2, stronger than expectations of 50.6.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed just above the flatline today as cautious sentiment prevailed ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. reciprocal tariffs. The benchmark index gave up its earlier gains and was pinned near an 8-month low as a stronger yen weighed on exporters. Chip stocks also retreated amid mounting concerns over data center demand. At the same time, pharmaceutical and utility stocks gained ground. A private sector survey released on Tuesday showed that Japan’s factory activity contracted at a faster pace in March as demand softened and the escalating U.S. trade war weighed on the manufacturing outlook. Separately, a Bank of Japan survey revealed that business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers deteriorated to a one-year low in the first quarter of the year, reflecting growing concerns over President Trump’s threat of higher tariffs on U.S. imports. However, the mood among large Japanese non-manufacturers improved to levels not seen since 1991, buoyed by booming profits from inbound tourism and the pass-through of costs through price increases. In addition, data showed that Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in February. Meanwhile, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tuesday that the country will continue its strong push for a U.S. exemption from auto tariffs, while pledging to take necessary steps to cushion the impact on the economy and jobs. In other news, the Bank of Japan’s top economist, Koji Nakamura, was appointed as the new executive director in charge of monetary policy and financial markets on Tuesday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.10% to 27.84.
The Japanese March au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI stood at 48.4, stronger than expectations of 48.3.
The Japanese February Unemployment Rate was 2.4%, stronger than expectations of 2.5%.
The Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index has been reported at 12 in the first quarter, in line with expectations.
The Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index came in at 35 in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of 33.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
PVH Corp. (PVH) surged over +16% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results, issued above-consensus FY25 guidance, and said it plans to enter $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreements.
Progress Software (PRGS) climbed more than +8% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat FQ1 results and raised its full-year EPS guidance.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $423.
Kroger (KR) fell about -1% in pre-market trading after Melius Research downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold with a $58 price target.
Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and American Airlines (AAL) dropped more than -1% in pre-market trading after Jefferies downgraded the stocks on lower estimates.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - April 1st
Ncino (NCNO), Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN), Novagold (NG), Ultralife (ULBI), Sportsmans (SPWH), Widepoint C (WYY).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
