Wheat Posting Midday Gains on Lower than Expected Acreage

The wheat complex is trading with gains across the three market on Monday. Chicago SRW futures are showing 6 to 7 cent gains at midday. Kansas City HRW contracts are 4 to 6 cents in the green so far on Monday. MPLS spring wheat is up 8 to 9 cents in the nearby contracts at midday.

NASS tallied March 1 wheat stocks at 1.236 billion bushels in this morning’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, 15 mbu above the average trade estimate but still within the full range of expectations. That is also a hike of 147 mbu increase from last year.

The annual Prospective Plantings report showed 45.35 million acres of wheat intended this spring, which is shy of the 46.53 million acre trade average guess. Winter wheat acres were down 800,000 acres from the January Winter Wheat Seedings report at 33.315 million acres, which is also 75,000 below last year. Spring wheat was tallied at intentions of 10.02 million acres, below the 10.531 million acre trade estimate. 

This morning’s Export Inspections report from FGIS showed a total of 435,644 MT (16.007 mbu) of wheat shipped in the week that ended on March 27. That was down 10.19% from the previous week and 13.46% below the same week last year. Of that total, 76,142 MT was headed to Mexico, with 67,470 MT destined for South Korea. Marketing year shipments have totaled 17.29 MMT (635.29 mbu) since June 1, 2024, which is 16.41% above the same period last year. 

Russian wheat crop estimates for 2025/26 were trimmed by Argus, down 1.2 MMT from their prior estimate to 80.3 MMT.

May 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.35 1/4, up 7 cents,

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.49 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.57, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.69 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $5.89 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.04 1/2, up 8 cents,