Stocks Set to Open Sharply Lower as Tariff Worries Sour Risk Sentiment, U.S. Jobs Data and Powell’s Remarks Awaited

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -1.01%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -1.21% this morning as risk sentiment took a hit ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for a new round of comprehensive global trade tariffs.

Market participants nervously brace for a wave of import tariffs taking effect on April 2nd, a day U.S. President Donald Trump has labeled “Liberation Day.” President Trump is expected to unveil plans for so-called “reciprocal tariffs,” targeting countries that export more to the U.S. than they import. Trump on Sunday stated that reciprocal tariffs would initially target “essentially all” countries and reportedly urged his advisers to adopt a more aggressive approach to trade policies. Also, a recently announced 25% tariff on auto imports is set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time on April 3rd. Investors are becoming increasingly worried about the impact of these tariffs on the U.S. and the global economy.

This week, investors also look ahead to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials and a slew of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply lower. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the yogawear brand issued disappointing FY25 guidance. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks slumped, with Amazon.com (AMZN) sliding more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow and Alphabet (GOOGL) falling over -4%. In addition, Oxford Industries (OXM) dropped more than -5% after the owner of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer provided below-consensus Q1 and FY25 revenue guidance. On the bullish side, W. R. Berkley (WRB) climbed over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance announced plans to build a 15% stake in the company.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, came in at +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y in February, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Also, U.S. February personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m, while personal income grew +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m. In addition, the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised lower to a 2-1/3 year low of 57.0 in March, weaker than expectations of no change at 57.9.

“[Friday’s] data has the general pattern of what many observers will be looking for in the months ahead as new tariffs and other policy change begin to bite: weaker-than-expected spending and stronger-than-expected inflation,” said David Alcaly at Lazard Asset Management.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated on Friday that the central bank could afford to wait and see the impact of tariffs on the economy, and she still views two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year as a “reasonable” projection. 

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.5% probability of no rate change and a 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s May meeting.

On the economic data front, the U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the main highlight this week. With consumer spending and confidence declining, any significant weakening in job growth would heighten concerns about the economic outlook. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Factory Orders, Crude Oil Inventories, Exports, Imports, Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, the S&P Global Composite PMI, the S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate. 

Shortly after Friday’s key jobs report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia. A host of other Fed officials will also be making appearances throughout the week, including Barkin, Kugler, Jefferson, Cook, Barr, and Waller.

In addition, several notable companies like Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW), Guess (GES), PVH Corp. (PVH), and RH (RH) are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. Chicago PMI, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the Chicago PMI will stand at 45.5 in March, unchanged from last month. 

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.202%, down -1.25%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -1.06% this morning, tracking a sell-off in Asia as investors brace for a fresh round of U.S. tariffs this week. New reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, heightening concerns over a global economic slowdown. Tariff-exposed mining and automobile stocks led the declines on Monday. Still, the benchmark index is on track to close the first quarter with solid gains. Data from the Federal Statistical Office released on Monday showed that Germany’s monthly retail sales rose in February at the fastest pace in five months. Separately, preliminary data from the statistical agency Istat showed that Italy’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly climbed to a 1-1/2 year high in March. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said on Monday that elevated uncertainty, primarily driven by U.S. trade policy announcements, means the ECB must proceed cautiously in lowering interest rates. Investors are also awaiting Germany’s preliminary inflation data for March, due later in the session. In corporate news, Fortnox Ab (FNOX.S.DX) jumped over +34% after the Swedish financial services firm said it had received a takeover offer from its largest owner, First Kraft, and private equity group EQT. At the same time, Associated British Foods Plc (ABF.LN) slumped more than -4% after the head of its fashion chain Primark, Paul Marchant, stepped down, effective immediately.

Germany’s Retail Sales and Italy’s CPI (preliminary) data were released today. 

The German February Retail Sales came in at +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m.

The Italian March CPI stood at +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.6% y/y.

Asian stock markets closed in the red today. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.46%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -4.05%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs overshadowed strong PMI data from the country. Property and consumer stocks led the declines on Monday. The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that activity in China’s huge manufacturing sector grew at the fastest rate in a year in March, driven by new orders that boosted production, while growth in the services sector reached a three-month high, signaling further signs of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. “The official PMIs suggest that infrastructure spending is ramping up again and that exports have so far remained resilient in the face of U.S. tariffs,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics. Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for Trump’s reciprocal tariff push, which he stated will begin with “all countries” on April 2nd. The U.S. is also scheduled to complete a review this week of Beijing’s compliance with the phase-one trade agreement struck during Trump’s first term. China has warned Washington that it will respond with retaliation if the U.S. proceeds with the levies. In other news, China’s finance ministry on Monday announced plans to issue 500 billion yuan ($68.84 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025 to support bank capital replenishment. In corporate news, CK Hutchison Holdings fell over -3% in Hong Kong after the conglomerate announced it was considering a plan to spin off its global telecoms business.

The Chinese March Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5, stronger than expectations of 50.4.

The Chinese March Non-Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.8, stronger than expectations of 50.5.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, plummeting to its lowest level in nearly eight months as worries about U.S. tariffs resurfaced. Chip and financial stocks led the declines on Monday. Hiroyuki Ueno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, said, “Investors’ sentiment was weakened as there is so much uncertainty ahead of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs.” President Trump stated on Sunday that reciprocal tariffs he plans to announce this week will apply to all nations, not merely the 10 to 15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. Meanwhile, data released on Monday showed that Japan’s industrial production rebounded more strongly than expected in February, though slowing retail sales growth highlighted mounting pressures on an economy confronting increasing external risks. The nation’s factory output in the coming months is expected to be impacted by the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. president and weakness in the global economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has stated that the government will keep communicating with the Trump administration to secure exemptions and will also contemplate actions to safeguard jobs for Japanese workers. In corporate news, Suruga Bank slid over -3% after disclosing that the Tokyo High Court had overturned a lower court ruling and referred its damages lawsuit against former directors back to the Shizuoka District Court. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +25.95% to 28.15.

The Japanese February Industrial Production (preliminary) stood at +2.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.9% m/m.

The Japanese February Retail Sales came in at +1.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y.

The Japanese February Housing Starts arrived at +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of -2.3% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks are falling in pre-market trading. Tesla (TSLA) is down over -4%, and Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -3%.

U.S. Steel (X) fell more than -1% in pre-market trading after BMO Capital downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform.

ChargePoint (CHPT) slumped over -4% in pre-market trading after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to In Line from Outperform.

Bluebird Bio (BLUE) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after receiving an unsolicited offer from Ayrmid Pharma to buy the company in a deal valued at up to $110.5 million. 

Mr. Cooper Group (COOP) surged over +17% in pre-market trading after Rocket Companies agreed to acquire the company for $9.4 billion. 

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - March 31st

Loar Holdings LLC (LOAR), PVH (PVH), Progress (PRGS), Sigma Lithium Resources (SGML), TechTarget (TTGT), Omeros (OMER), Celcuity (CELC), Microvast Holdings (MVST), Open Lending (LPRO), Nano X (NNOX), I80 Gold (IAUX), Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN), Caledonia Mining (CMCL), Rekor Systems (REKR), Rani Therapeutics Holdings (RANI).