S&P Futures Muted as Investors Wait for Tariff Clarity

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.07% this morning as cautious investors refrain from making big bets amid uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariffs.

Tariffs have continued to take center stage for investors. The Trump administration signaled that the upcoming wave of U.S. tariffs could be more targeted than initially expected, as nations hurried to obtain exemptions from the impending duties. On Tuesday, President Trump stated he didn’t want too many exceptions, but he would “probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be... that would be very tough for people.” Moreover, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on copper imports could be implemented within several weeks, months ahead of the deadline for a decision.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended higher. International Paper (IP) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the paper and pulp giant issued solid FY25 revenue guidance. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks gained ground, with Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +3% and Alphabet (GOOGL) advancing over +1%. In addition, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) rose more than +3% after BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $431. On the bearish side, KB Home (KBH) slid over -5% after the homebuilder posted downbeat FQ1 results and cut its full-year housing revenue guidance.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a 4-year low of 92.9 in March, weaker than expectations of 94.2. Also, the U.S. January S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. increased to +4.7% y/y from +4.5% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +4.6% y/y. In addition, U.S. new home sales rose +1.8% m/m to 676K in February, weaker than expectations of 682K. Finally, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -4 in March, weaker than expectations of 8.

“Sentiment continues to wane among investors, consumers, and businesses as economic concerns and economic policy uncertainty take their toll. Until there’s more certainty on the tariff and macro front, sentiment and confidence remain vulnerable,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler on Tuesday voiced support for keeping interest rates unchanged for “some time,” while pointing out an uptick in some measures of Americans’ inflation expectations. “I am paying close attention to the acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations, especially given the recent bout of inflation in the past few years,” Kugler said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of no rate change and an 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast February Durable Goods Orders at -1.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of +3.1% m/m and 0.0% m/m, respectively. 

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be 1.500M, compared to last week’s value of 1.745M.

In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem throughout the day.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Dollar Tree (DLTR), Chewy (CHWY), Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), and Jefferies Financial (JEF) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.316%, up +0.19%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.55% this morning as investors continue to evaluate U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Healthcare and telecom stocks retreated on Wednesday, while energy stocks outperformed. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Wednesday showed that Britain’s inflation eased slightly in February, but stayed well above the Bank of England’s target, likely keeping officials cautious as they consider further interest rate cuts. Separately, data from the statistics agency Insee showed that France’s consumer confidence weakened in March. Meanwhile, U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver the “Spring Statement” later in the session and is expected to announce cuts in public spending aimed at strengthening public finances. In other news, the European Union Trade Commissioner met with senior U.S. trade officials in a bid to avert steep tariffs on EU goods set for next week, though the outcome of the discussions remained uncertain. In corporate news, Mfe-Mediaforeurope NV (MFEA.M.DX) rose over +1% after Reuters reported that the company had scheduled a board meeting to consider a potential bid for ProSiebenSat.1.

U.K.’s CPI, U.K.’s Core CPI, France’s Consumer Confidence, and Spain’s GDP data were released today.

U.K. February CPI came in at +0.4% m/m and +2.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +3.0% y/y.

U.K. February Core CPI stood at +0.4% m/m and +3.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +3.6% y/y.

The French March Consumer Confidence arrived at 92, weaker than expectations of 94.

The Spanish GDP has been reported at +0.8% q/q and +3.4% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to expectations of +0.8% q/q and +3.5% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.04%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.65%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed just below the flatline today as cautious sentiment prevailed ahead of the implementation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs next week. Bank stocks led the declines on Wednesday, while solar and technology stocks outperformed. Investors are looking for more stimulus measures from Beijing, given the expected challenges to the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, with attention focused on a press conference by the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley lifted its year-end 2025 index targets for Chinese equities for the second time this year, citing improved earnings growth projections and a brighter outlook for the economy and currency. Also, Goldman Sachs strategists anticipate more fundamental upside to the recent rally as additional positive earnings revisions are expected. In other news, the U.S. placed six subsidiaries of Inspur Group, China’s leading cloud computing and big data service provider, along with dozens of other Chinese entities, on its export restriction list on Tuesday. In corporate news, WH Group rose over +3% in Hong Kong after the Chinese pork group reported 2024 profit growth and announced a special dividend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, rising for the second consecutive session as worries over U.S. tariffs eased. Investors remained hopeful that the next wave of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs would be less severe than previously expected. Electronics and video game stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Bank of Japan data released on Wednesday showed that a key gauge of Japan’s service-sector inflation reached 3.0% in February, sustaining expectations of further interest rate hikes by the central bank. Separately, data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised upward in January. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Wednesday that the central bank might consider raising interest rates if an increase in food prices leads to broader and stronger inflation. “We may have to consider responding by raising interest rates if the rise in some food prices gradually spreads to related prices such as processed food products and restaurants, which would make it easier to raise prices for other goods and services and lead to the possibility for more widespread inflation,” Ueda told a parliamentary committee. Investors will look for further clues on the timing of the BOJ’s next interest rate hike in the summary of opinions from last week’s central bank meeting, which is set to be released on Friday. In corporate news, Nintendo climbed over +5% after Goldman Sachs said it expects the upcoming release of its Switch 2 console will push active user numbers to record levels. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.55% to 20.98.

The Japanese February Corporate Services Price Index came in at +3.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.1% y/y.

The Japanese January Leading Index stood at 108.3, stronger than expectations of 108.0.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

SurgePays (SURG) spiked about +78% in pre-market trading after projecting revenue exceeding $200 million over the next year due to a partnership with AT&T.

GameStop (GME) jumped over +12% in pre-market trading after the video game retailer announced that its board had unanimously approved a plan to add Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.

Playtika (PLTK) surged nearly +7% in pre-market trading after BofA double-upgraded the stock to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $6.50.

Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) gained more than +4% in pre-market trading after Citi upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $35.

Dutch Bros (BROS) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo initiated coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating and $80 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - March 26th

Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Chewy (CHWY), Jefferies Financial (JEF), Titan America (TTAM), Alvotech (ALVO), H B Fuller (FUL), Concentrix (CNXC), BRP Inc (DOOO), Verint (VRNT), MillerKnoll (MLKN), Steelcase (SCS), JinkoSolar (JKS), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), REX American Resources (REX), Target Hospitality (TH), Canaan (CAN), 3D Systems (DDD), Microvision (MVIS), Inventiva (IVA), Perspective Therapeutics (CATX), Journey Medical (DERM).