Soybeans Rally Out of the Holiday, with Chinese Rumors

Soybeans posted gains of 35 to 50 ½ cents across the front months on Monday, with defereds up 23 to 32 cents. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 47 1/4 cents at $11.36 3/4. Soymeal futures were $5.10 to $9.10 higher across most contracts, with Soy Oil futures 99 to 141 points higher. Rumors of China buying surfaced late in the day, with a reported 5 cargoes purchased.  

Crop Progress data from NASS showed 34% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/5, up 6% from normal, with 9% setting pods and 3 percentage points faster than normal. Condition ratings were down 1% at 64% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index steady at 365.

The 7-day forecast shows rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across parts of the Dakotas and MN, mainly in the next couple days. Eastern Corn Belt totals are a half inch to 2 inches in the next week, with up to an inch in parts of IA, MO, and NE. The 8-14 day outlook shows warmer temps across the country, with a dry pocket in the central part of the US.

USDA’s FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 528,350 MT (19.41 mbu) during the week ending on July 2. That was up 19% from the week prior and 31.9% above the same week last year. China was the top destination of 268,115 MT, with 64,664 MT headed to Mexico and 46,176 MT to Japan. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 37.85 MMT (1.39 bbu), which is now 18.2% below the same period last year.

Commitment of Traders data showed managed money cutting back 5,479 contracts from their net long position in the week ending on June 30 to 31,200 contracts. 

Brazilian trade ministry data showed 14.5 MMT of soybeans shipped in June, well above the 13.42 MMT in the same month last year.

Jul 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.82 1/4, up 50 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $11.36 3/4, up 47 1/4 cents,

Aug 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.84, up 47 3/4 cents,

Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.92 1/4, up 44 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $11.26 1/4, up 38 1/4 cents,