Grain Markets Retreat Following Monthly WASDE Report

Corn

Tuesday’s Recap
Corn futures were lower Tuesday with the May contract finishing the session at 470’2, dropping by 1’6. Across all maturities, 407,110 contracts were traded, with 189,880 done in the May maturity. Total open interest rose by 1,298, or 0.0710%, to 1,830,054. May dropped 5,090 (0.70%), finishing at 724,092.

Technicals
May corn futures came within 2 1/2 cents of resistance before reversing and finishing the day in negative territory and back below our pivot pocket. The lack of new bullish news coupled with a weak close has dropped prices to the 100-day moving average, which is near our first support pocket, 461-463 3/4. A failure to hold ground here and 454 1/2-457 3/4 would be the next downside objective for Bears. I use the term “bears” loosely as this remains an environment for traders to position on both sides of the market. With that in mind, our longer-term bias is mostly neutral. The average daily trading range over the last 14 days is coming in but still elevated at 11 cents.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 480-484***, 486 1/2-488 1/2****
Pivot: 472 3/4-473 1/2
Support: 461-463 3/4***, 454 1/2-457 3/4***

Fundamental Notes
Corn prices were weighed down on Tuesday after the U.S. government left domestic corn inventories unchanged in a monthly supply-and-demand report – despite strong export sales and trade tensions with top buyer Mexico.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged 2024-25 U.S. corn stocks at 1.54 billion bushels and exports at 2.45 billion bushels, both unchanged from February. Analysts had expected stocks to decline to 1.516 billion bushels due to robust demand, according to a Reuters poll.

Popular Options
The May 440 put saw the most action with 7,427 contracts traded. Option open interest is greatest for the July 500 calls at 36,879, and the July 450 puts at 20,107.

Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility closed the session moderately down, losing 0.36 to end at a one week low of 22.50. Dropping by 0.0886%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 24.44%. The CVL Skew settled down, lower by 0.17 to finish at 1.26, a one week low.

Read the FULL article wth Charts + our WASDE Report Here: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/03/12/grain-markets-retreat-following-monthly-wasde-report/

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