S&P Futures Gain With Focus on Key U.S. Jobs Report and Powell Speech

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending up +0.35% this morning as investors look ahead to the all-important U.S. payrolls report and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed lower. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) slumped over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 amid signs of insider selling after an SEC filing revealed that director Alexander Moore sold $1.74 million worth of shares on Monday. Also, MongoDB (MDB) plunged more than -26% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company issued below-consensus FY26 guidance. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) tumbled over -19% after the semiconductor company’s Q1 revenue forecast failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations. On the bullish side, Zscaler (ZS) rose more than +2% after the cybersecurity firm posted upbeat FQ2 results and raised its full-year guidance.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -21K to 221K, compared with the 234K expected. Also, U.S. Q4 nonfarm productivity was revised higher to +1.5% q/q from +1.2% q/q, while unit labor costs were revised downward to +2.2% q/q from +3.0% q/q. In addition, the U.S. trade deficit was a record -$131.40B in January, wider than expectations of -$128.30B.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated on Thursday that risks to the economy are increasing as businesses and consumers grow more cautious and inflationary pressures mount. Harker added that he is increasingly worried that the decline in price growth “is at risk.” Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said it may take several months to gauge the impact of President Trump’s policies and other factors on the economy, indicating that officials might keep rates steady until at least late spring. At the same time, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that he would not back a rate cut in March but sees the potential for two or possibly three reductions this year.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.0% probability of no rate change and a 9.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting later this month.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a keynote speech on the economic outlook at an event in New York hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business later today. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak today. 

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that February Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 159K, compared to January’s figure of 143K.

A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 53% of respondents expect key U.S. jobs data to be “risk-off,” 28% “risk-on,” and 19% “mixed/negligible.” “Investors have turned their focus back to Payrolls this month after being more focused on average hourly earnings last month,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V.

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will also be closely watched today. Economists expect February figures to be +0.3% m/m and +4.1% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.5% m/m and +4.1% y/y.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will remain steady at 4.0% in February.

U.S. Consumer Credit data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be $15.60B in January, compared to the previous figure of $40.85B.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.266%, down -0.37%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -1.05% this morning, tracking losses in Asia as U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on trade tariffs fueled market uncertainty and undermined confidence in the economic outlook. President Trump first declared a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, later exempted autos, and ultimately postponed tariffs on most goods until April 2nd. Travel & leisure and retail stocks led the declines on Friday. Luxury stocks also lost ground amid disappointing trade data from China. Still, the benchmark index is on track to end the week little changed. Final estimates from EU statistics agency Eurostat released Friday showed that the Eurozone economy expanded slightly more than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, supported by stronger growth in Ireland and Italy. Separately, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Germany’s monthly factory orders tumbled in January, signaling ongoing weakness in a struggling sector. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the sixth time since last June on Thursday, as widely expected, but adopted a more cautious stance on future rate adjustments while raising its near-term inflation forecasts. Investor focus is now on the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In corporate news, Elia Group (ELI.BB) surged over +16% after posting full-year results.

Germany’s Factory Orders, Eurozone’s GDP, and Eurozone’s Employment Change data were released today.

The German January Factory Orders came in at -7.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of -2.4% m/m.

Eurozone GDP has been reported at +0.2% q/q and +1.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.9% y/y.

Eurozone Employment Change arrived at +0.1% q/q and +0.7% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.25%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -2.17%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today, snapping a 3-day winning streak as investors digested disappointing trade data from the country. Property and insurance stocks led the declines on Friday. Still, the benchmark index ended the week higher. Customs data released on Friday showed that China’s export growth over the first two months of the year was weaker than expected, as shipments were impacted by escalating trade tensions with the U.S. Also, data showed that imports to China unexpectedly fell in the January-February period, marking the steepest decline since July 2023. Meanwhile, Citi economists boosted their forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth to 4.7% from 4.2%. China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an stated Thursday on the sidelines of the annual legislative session that the central government has ample fiscal policy tools and room to address potential domestic and external challenges. Also, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, reiterating a previous commitment to cut interest rates and reduce the reserve requirement ratio for banks at “an appropriate time.” In corporate news, JD Logistics plunged over -14% in Hong Kong after posting slower net profit growth in the fourth quarter.

The Chinese Trade Balance arrived at $170.52B in the January-February period, stronger than expectations of $147.50B.

The Chinese Exports stood at +2.3% y/y in the January-February period, weaker than expectations of +5.0% y/y.

The Chinese Imports came in at -8.4% y/y in the January-February period, weaker than expectations of +1.0% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, hitting a 6-month low as worries over U.S. tariffs and higher borrowing costs dampened sentiment. Electronics and pharmaceutical stocks led the declines on Friday. The benchmark index notched a weekly loss. U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting approach to trade tariffs heightened concerns about the global economy, adding to market uncertainty. Japanese equities also came under pressure from a stronger yen and higher domestic bond yields amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year. Renewed expectations for the BOJ’s interest rate hikes emerged after Japan’s largest labor union group, Rengo, said on Thursday that its member unions are aiming for an average wage increase of 6.09% for this year, surpassing last year’s demand. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Friday that inflationary pressures from wage gains and sustained increases in food prices could lead BOJ board members to consider another interest rate hike as early as May. In other news, Japan’s economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, stated on Friday that the country has met the key criteria for the government to officially declare an end to prolonged price deflation. In corporate news, Nissan Motor rose over +1% after a report indicated that its directors were scheduled to meet on March 11th to discuss potential successors for CEO Makoto Uchida. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +11.79% to 28.16.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Broadcom (AVGO) surged over +12% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor and software giant posted upbeat FQ1 results and issued above-consensus FQ2 revenue guidance. 

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after private equity firm Sycamore Partners agreed to acquire the company for $10 billion.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) tumbled over -19% in pre-market trading after the server and cloud company reported weaker-than-expected FQ1 adjusted EPS and offered a downbeat FQ2 forecast.  

The Gap Inc. (GAP) jumped more than +17% in pre-market trading after the retailer posted better-than-expected Q4 results.

Zscaler (ZS) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $240.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - March 7th

Algonquin Power (AQN), Advantage Solutions (ADV), Genesco (GCO), Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK), inTest (INTT), Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY).