Stocks Move Higher as Automakers Surge on Tariff Relief

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.33%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.42%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.53%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH25) are up +0.56%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH25) are up +0.77%. 

Stock indexes have been volatile today as investors await clarity on US tariffs, but recovered from modest losses after the White House granted automakers a one-month exemption. Elsewhere, today’s -3% fall in the price of WTI crude oil to a 5-3/4 month low is weighing on energy stocks, though chip stocks have bounced back from negative territory.

US equity markets received a boost after the close Tuesday when US Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted at a compromise on US tariffs when he said the US could announce a pathway for tariff relief as soon as today on Canadian and Mexican goods covered by North America’s free trade agreement.  However, any tariff relief may be limited after President Trump reiterated on Tuesday evening that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign nations on April 2.

Signs of a slowdown in the US labor market are negative for stocks after Feb ADP employment rose +77,000, well below expectations of +140,000 and the smallest increase in 7 months. 

Other US economic news today was supportive for stocks after Jan factory orders posted their largest increase in 6 months, and the Feb ISM services index expanded more than expected.

US Jan factory orders rose +1.7% m/m, right on expectations and the largest increase in 6 months.

The US Feb ISM services index unexpectedly rose +0.7 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.5.  The Feb ISM services prices paid sub-index rose +2.2 to 62.6, stronger than expectations of no change at 60.4.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +20.4% in the week ended February 28, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +9.1% and the refinancing sub-index up +37.0%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -15 bp to a 3-month low of 6.73% from 6.88% the prior week.

Market attention for the rest of this week will focus on Friday’s Feb payroll report, which is expected to show nonfarm payrolls climbing by +160,000, and the Feb unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%.  Meanwhile, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to remain unchanged from Jan at +4.1% y/y.  Also, on Friday, Fed Chair Powell will give the keynote speech on the economic outlook at Chicago Booth’s 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum. 

The markets are discounting the chances at 11% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 18-19.

Overseas stock markets today are higher.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up sharply by +2.16%.  China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.53%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.23%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are down -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +4.8 bp to 4.252%.  June T-notes today are under pressure on negative carryover from a selloff in 10-year German bunds to a 16-month low.  Also, today’s stronger-than-expected US Feb ISM services report weighed on T-notes.

T-notes recovered from early losses and moved higher briefly after the US Feb ADP employment change showed companies added fewer than expected jobs, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Also, today’s plunge in crude oil prices to a 5-3/4 month low has reduced inflation expectations, a supportive factor for T-note prices.

European bond yields today are higher.  The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 16-month high of 2.784% and is up +28.8 bp to 2.782%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 5-week high of 4.693% and is up +15.9 bp to 4.692%.

Eurozone Jan PPI rose +0.8% m/m and +1.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y.

German Chancellor-in-waiting Merz said Germany would amend its constitution to exempt defense and security outlays from limits on fiscal spending and do “whatever it takes” to defend the country.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 99% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the March 6 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Chip stocks are sliding today and are weighing on the Nasdaq 100 after President Trump called for an end to the $52 billion Chips Act subsidy program.  Intel (INTC) is down more than -3%.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%. 

Energy producers are under pressure today, with the price of WTI crude down more than -3% at a 5-3/4 month low.  Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -5%.  Also, ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -3%.  In addition, Chevron (CVX) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Exxon Mobil (XOM), Baker Hughes (BKR), Halliburton (HAL), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are down more than -2%.

Copper mining stocks are climbing today as copper prices jumped more than +5% to a 2-1/2 week high after President Trump suggested Tuesday night that US copper imports may be subject to a 25% tariff.  As a result, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +6%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) is up more than +2%.

Automakers are moving higher after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that the Trump administration may announce a pathway for tariff relief on goods from Canada and Mexico covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement.  General Motors (GM) and Stellantis NV (STLA) are up more than +4%, and Ford Motor (F) is up more than +2%. 

Brown-Forman (BF.A) is up more than +8% after reporting Q3 EPS of 57 cents, stronger than the consensus of 46 cents.

PDD Holdings (PDD) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 as US-listed Chinese stocks rallied today after the Chinese government said it will sell special bonds to fund public spending on infrastructure and other areas and make boosting domestic consumption its top priority. 

Moderna (MRNA) is up more than +4% on signs of insider buying after an SEC filing showed CEO Bancel and Board Director Sagan bought $6 million of stock on Monday. 

Carrier Global (CARR) is up more than +3% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $78. 

Albertsons Cos (ACI) is up more than +3% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Aspen Technology in the S&P MidCap 400 before the opening of trading on Tuesday, March 11. 

Crowdstrike (CRWD) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.33-$3.45, well below the consensus of $4.43.

AeroVironment (AVAV) is down more than -5% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 30 cents, well below the consensus of 61 cents, and cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $2.92 to $3.13 from $3.18 to $3.49, weaker than the consensus of $3.43. 

The Campbell’s Company (CPB) is down more than -3% after reporting Q2 net sales of $2.68 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.74 billion.

Box Inc (BOX) is down more than -5% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.13 to $1.17, well below the consensus of $1.87.

AppLovin (APP) is down more than -4% after Arete downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $200.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -3% after HSBC downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Earnings Reports (3/5/2025)

Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL), MongoDB Inc (MDB), The Campbell’s Company (CPB), Thor Industries Inc (THO), Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV), Zscaler Inc (ZS).