Stocks Mixed on Hopes of a US Tariff Compromise

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.05%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH25) are up +0.13%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH25) are down -0.11%. 

Stock indexes today are mixed as they recover some of the Monday/Tuesday selloff.  US equity markets received a boost after the close Tuesday when US Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted at a compromise on US tariffs when he said the US could announce a pathway for tariff relief as soon as today on Canadian and Mexican goods covered by North America’s free trade agreement.  However, any tariff relief may be limited after President Trump reiterated on Tuesday evening that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign nations on April 2.

Stock indexes gave up some of their gains on signs of a slowdown in the US labor market after the Feb ADP employment change rose +77,000, well below expectations of +140,000 and the smallest increase in 7 months.  Also, today’s -3% fall in the price of WTI crude oil to a 5-3/4 month low is weighing on energy stocks.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +20.4% in the week ended February 28, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +9.1% and the refinancing sub-index up +37.0%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -15 bp to a 3-month low of 6.73% from 6.88% the prior week.

Market attention will focus on today’s Feb ISM services index (expected to fall -0.1 point to 52.7).  On Friday, Feb nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by +160,000, and the Feb unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%.  Meanwhile, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to remain unchanged from Jan at +4.1% y/y.  Also, on Friday, Fed Chair Powell will give the keynote speech on the economic outlook at Chicago Booth’s 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum. 

The markets are discounting the chances at 11% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 18-19.

Overseas stock markets today are higher.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up sharply by +2.20%.  China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.53%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.23%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are up +2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.6 bp to 4.198%.  June T-notes today recovered from early losses and are slightly higher after the US Feb ADP employment change showed companies added fewer than expected jobs, a dovish factor for Fed policy. 

T-notes initially moved lower today on negative carryover from a selloff in 10-year German bunds to a 15-month low.  Also, a rebound in equity markets today has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. 

European bond yields today are moving higher.  The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 15-month high of 2.739% and is up +22.8 bp to 2.722%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 5-week high of 4.667% and is up +11.4 bp to 4.647%.

Eurozone Jan PPI rose +0.8% m/m and +1.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y.

German Chancellor-in-waiting Merz said Germany would amend its constitution to exempt defense and security outlays from limits on fiscal spending and do “whatever it takes” to defend the country.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 99% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the March 6 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Energy producers are under pressure today, with the price of WTI crude down more than -3% to a 5-3/4 month low.  Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -4%.  Also, ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Phillips 66 (PSX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are down more than -2%.

Copper mining stocks are climbing today as copper prices jumped more than +4% to a 2-1/2 week high after President Trump suggested Tuesday night that US copper imports may be subject to a 25% tariff.  As a result, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +5%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) is up more than +2%.

Automakers are moving higher after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that the Trump administration may announce a pathway for tariff relief on goods from Canada and Mexico covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement.  General Motors (GM) and Stellantis NV (STLA) are up more than +5%, and Ford Motor (F) is up more than +2%. 

Brown-Forman (BF.A) is up more than +9% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 EPS of 57 cents, stronger than the consensus of 46 cents.

Moderna (MRNA) is up more than +9% on signs of insider buying after an SEC filing showed CEO Bancel and Board Director Sagan bought $6 million of stock on Monday. 

Carrier Global (CARR) is up more than +4% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $78. 

Albertsons Cos (ACI) is up more than +3% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Aspen Technology in the S&P MidCap 400 before the open of trading on Tuesday, March 11. 

AeroVironment (AVAV) is down more than -11% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of 30 cents, well below the consensus of 61 cents, and cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $2.92 to $3.13 from $3.18 to $3.49, weaker than the consensus of $3.43. 

Crowdstrike (CRWD) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.33-$3.45, well below the consensus of $4.43.

The Campbell’s Company (CPB) is down more than -3% after reporting Q2 net sales of $2.68 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.74 billion.

Box Inc (BOX) is down more than -6% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.13 to $1.17, well below the consensus of $1.87.

AppLovin (APP) is down more than -2% after Arete downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $200.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) is down more than -2% after HSBC downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Earnings Reports (3/5/2025)

Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL), MongoDB Inc (MDB), The Campbell’s Company (CPB), Thor Industries Inc (THO), Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV), Zscaler Inc (ZS).