S&P Futures Climb on Hints of Tariff Compromise, U.S. ADP Jobs Report in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending up +0.73% this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s losses after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the Trump administration might dial down some trade tariffs.

Lutnick said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump would “probably” announce a deal to lower tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday. He noted that tariffs would probably settle “somewhere in the middle,” with Trump “moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way.”

Investors also digested President Trump’s speech to Congress. Trump acknowledged that there could be an “adjustment period” to tariffs as he defended his policies aimed at reshaping the U.S. economy. He also urged the termination of a $52 billion semiconductor subsidy program and repeated the 25% tariffs on aluminum, copper, and steel.

Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the ADP employment report.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower. Best Buy (BBY) plunged over -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the electronics retailer issued a weak FY26 adjusted EPS forecast. Also, bank stocks lost ground, with Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) sliding more than -6%. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) fell over -4% after preliminary data from China’s Passenger Car Association showed that the EV maker’s China vehicle deliveries tumbled 49% year-over-year to 30,688 units in February. On the bullish side, Okta (OKTA) jumped more than +24% after the company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus FY26 guidance. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbing nearly +3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining more than +2%.

New York Fed President John Williams stated on Tuesday that tariffs from the Trump administration will somewhat contribute to rising price pressures, though there remains significant uncertainty about how this will ultimately unfold. He added that he views monetary policy as being in a “good place” and sees “no need to change it” at the moment.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.0% probability of no rate change and a 7.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 141K, compared to the January figure of 183K.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI. Economists expect the February ISM services index to be 52.5 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 49.7, compared to the previous values of 52.8 and 52.9, respectively.

U.S. Factory Orders data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at +1.7% m/m in January, compared to the previous number of -0.9% m/m.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 0.600M, compared to last week’s value of -2.332M.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Marvell Technology (MRVL), Zscaler (ZS), MongoDB (MDB), and Campbell Soup (CPB) are set to report their quarterly results today.

Later today, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.254%, up +1.05%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +2.45% this morning, rebounding from the previous session’s selloff, as Germany’s plans to deploy hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure lifted sentiment. Defense and construction stocks rallied on Wednesday after the parties expected to form Germany’s next government agreed to establish a 500 billion euro ($534 billion) infrastructure fund and ease fiscal rules to increase defense spending and stimulate growth. Bank stocks also gained ground. Sentiment was further boosted by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s hints at a compromise on tariffs. Meanwhile, a survey released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone economy barely grew in February, as a modest expansion in the bloc’s dominant services sector was offset by a prolonged slump in manufacturing. Separately, data showed that France’s monthly industrial production unexpectedly fell in January. Investor focus is now on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday, with the central bank widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut. In corporate news, Adidas Ag (ADS.D.DX) fell over -1% after the sportswear giant projected slower profit growth in 2025.

France’s Industrial Production, Eurozone’s Composite PMI, Eurozone’s Services PMI, and Eurozone’s PPI data were released today.

The French January Industrial Production stood at -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

Eurozone February Composite PMI arrived at 50.2, in line with expectations.

Eurozone February Services PMI came in at 50.6, weaker than expectations of 50.7.

Eurozone January PPI has been reported at +0.8% m/m and +1.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +1.4% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.53%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.23%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today amid positive sentiment following Beijing’s announcement of an ambitious economic growth target and additional support for domestic consumption. Telecom and bank stocks led the gains on Wednesday. The National People’s Congress in Beijing on Wednesday set a 2025 economic growth target of around 5%, marking the third consecutive year it has maintained that goal. Economists stated that the unchanged growth target reflects confidence and indicates enhanced policy support to stimulate domestic demand. China also raised its budget deficit target to the highest level in 30 years as it grapples with deflation, a property downturn, and a trade war with the U.S., while setting an inflation target of 2%. Policymakers pledged a “special action plan” to boost consumption and allocated 300 billion yuan ($41.27 billion) to support a newly expanded consumer subsidy scheme aimed at revitalizing tepid domestic spending. Meanwhile, the government announced its support for the application of large-scale AI models, citing AI models for the first time in a government work report, following the global buzz surrounding Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. In economic news, a private sector survey released on Wednesday showed that growth in China’s services sector accelerated in February, bolstered by an uptick in new business activity. In corporate news, Harbin Boshi Automation gained over +3% after securing an 88.5 million yuan supply deal.

The Chinese February Caixin Services PMI arrived at 51.4, stronger than expectations of 50.8.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly higher today as worries over trade frictions between the U.S. and its trading partners eased for now. Investors were buoyed after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at potential tariff relief, stating that the U.S. could reach a tariff compromise with Canada and Mexico. Automobile and electronics stocks led the gains on Wednesday. A private sector survey released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s service activity expanded at the fastest pace in six months in February, driven by strong sales and new export businesses. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to a near 15-year high on Wednesday following hawkish remarks from a senior Bank of Japan official. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank remains open to further interest rate hikes but is cautious about moving too quickly, as underlying inflation is still below its 2% target. In other news, Bloomberg reported that Japanese companies, including Sony Group, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, and Suntory, were stockpiling goods in the U.S. to minimize the impact of any tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump might impose, following levies on China, Canada, and Mexico. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.32% to 26.57.

The Japanese February au Jibun Bank Services PMI stood at 53.7, stronger than expectations of 53.1.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after William Blair upgraded the stock to Market Perform from Underperform.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) slumped over -8% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company issued disappointing FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. 

AeroVironment (AVAV) plunged more than -18% in pre-market trading after the maker of military drones and autonomous equipment posted downbeat FQ3 results and cut its full-year guidance. 

Intuit (INTU) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $660.

Albertsons Companies (ACI) climbed over +4% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the company would join the S&P MidCap 400 Index on March 11th.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - March 5th

Marvell (MRVL), Zscaler (ZS), MongoDB (MDB), Brown Forman (BFb), Campbell Soup (CPB), Descartes Systems (DSGX), South Bow (SOBO), Thor Industries (THO), Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF), Kodiak Gas Services (KGS), Grindr (GRND), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Victoria's Secret Co (VSCO), Foot Locker (FL), Rev Group (REVG), Vermilion Energy (VET), Yext (YEXT), Riskified (RSKD), Bally's (BALY), OppFi (OPFI), Global Ship Lease (GSL), Stratasys Ltd (SSYS), Daktronics (DAKT), Miller Industries (MLR), Riley Exploration Permian (REPX), Climb Global Solutions (CLMB), Lendingtree (TREE), Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM), North American Construction (NOA), Eyepoint Pharma (EYPT), Allient (ALNT), GeoPark Ltd (GPRK), VersaBank (VBNK), Kamada (KMDA), Dine Brands Global (DIN), Methode Electronics (MEI), Triplepoint Venture (TPVG), Park Ohio Holdings (PKOH), Mistras (MG), Sleep Number (SNBR), Aquestive Therapeutics (AQST), SmartRent (SMRT), Ring Energy Inc (REI), Orion Office Reit (ONL), Arq Inc (ARQ), Amplify Energy (AMPY), Forge Global Holdings (FRGE), Ocugen (OCGN), Silvaco (SVCO), B Riley Principal (ALTG), Arbe Robotics (ARBE), Acres Commercial Realty (ACR), NN Inc (NNBR), Caesarstone (CSTE), Sight Sciences (SGHT), Alto Ingredients (ALTO).