Positive Corporate News Supports Stocks Ahead of Tuesday's Tariff News

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.20%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH25) are up +0.05%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH25) are up +0.17%. 

Stock indexes today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 1-week high.  Stocks are seeing support from some positive corporate news.  Intel is up more than +3% to lead chip makers higher after Reuters reported that Nvidia and Broadcom are running manufacturing tests that indicate the companies are moving closer to determining whether to commit manufacturing contracts to Intel.  Also, Allegro MicroSystems is up more than +11% after Bloomberg reported the company is drawing takeover interest from ON Semiconductor.  In addition, Capri Holdings Ltd is up more than +7% after Bloomberg reported that Prada SpA is close to buying Versace from Capri Holdings for $1.6 billion. 

US stocks have carryover support from today’s rally in European stocks to a new record high.  Also, signs of strength in China’s manufacturing activity bolstered global growth prospects and supported stocks after the China Feb manufacturing PMI rose +1.1 to 50.2, stronger than expectations of 49.9. 

On the negative side is the weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks.  Nvidia is down more than -4%, Amazon.com is down more than -1%, Microsoft is down -0.90% and Apple is down -0.41%.

The price of Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is up more than +6% at a 1-week high, and other cryptocurrencies rallied after President Trump said in a social media post Sunday that his January executive order on crypto “directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, and ADA tokens.”  However, many details of Mr. Trump’s plan are still unknown, including how much the government will buy and how the purchases will be funded.

On Tuesday, President Trump has said that he will implement 25% tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico, while tariffs on imports from China will double to 20% from 10%.

Market attention this week will focus on today’s Feb ISM manufacturing report (expected -0.1 to 50.8).  On Wednesday, the Feb ISM services index is expected to fall -0.1 point to 52.7.  On Friday, Feb nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by +160,000, and the Feb unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%.  Meanwhile, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to remain unchanged from Jan at +4.1% y/y.  Also on Friday, Fed Chair Powell will give the keynote speech on the economic outlook at Chicago Booth’s 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum. 

The markets are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 18-19.

Overseas stock markets today are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a record high and is up +1.43%.  China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell to a 2-1/2 week low and closed down -0.12%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.70%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are down -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.4 bp to 4.242%.  June T-notes today are mildly lower due to negative carryover from weakness in European government bonds.  T-note prices are also being undercut by inflation concerns as the Trump administration’s new tariffs are set to begin Tuesday on US imports from Canada, Mexico, and China.

European bond yields today are moving higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week high of 2.513% and is up +10.3 bp to 2.509%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 1-week high of 4.602% and is up +10.3 bp to 4.585%.

Eurozone Feb CPI rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.3% y/y.  Feb core CPI rose +2.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.5% y/y.

The Eurozone Feb S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 47.6, stronger than expectations of no change at 47.3.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 99% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the March 6 policy meeting.

US Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) is up more than +3% to lead chip makers higher after Reuters reported that Nvidia and Broadcom are running manufacturing tests that indicate the companies are moving closer to determining whether to commit manufacturing contracts to Intel.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +2%.  In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%. 

AppLovin (APP) is up more than +8% after it modified the current limit of its share repurchase program, which had about $1.77 billion remaining.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today with the price of Bitcoin up more than +6% at a 1-week high.  As a result, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Coinbase Global (COIN), Bit Digital (BTBT), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +4%. 

Casino stocks with exposure to Macau are climbing today after Macau Feb gaming revenue rose +6.8% y/y, well above the consensus of +0.8% y/y. As a result, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500.  Also, Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) is up more than +3%, and MGM Resorts International (MGM) is up nearly +1%.

Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) is up more than +6% after Bloomberg reported that Prada SpA is close to buying Versace from Capri Holdings for $1.6 billion. 

AST SpaceMobile  (ASTS) is up more than +3% after signing an agreement with Vodaphone to create a jointly-owned European satellite service business.

Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) is up more than +20% after Bloomberg reported the company is drawing takeover interest from ON Semiconductor. 

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is up more than +2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $70. 

Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials and the Magnificent 7 Tech stocks.  Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) is down more than -1%, Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.90%, and Apple (AAPL) is down -0.41%.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is down more than -3% on signs of insider selling after an SEC filing showed SVP Kao’george sold $3.62 million of shares last Wednesday. 

Kroger (KR) is down more than -1% after CEO McMullen resigned over “personal conduct,” and the company said a special board committee is investigating the matter. 

AES Corp (AES) is down more than -1% after Seaport Global Securities downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $7. 

Earnings Reports (3/3/2025)

Fortrea Holdings Inc (FTRE), Gitlab Inc (GTLB), Okta Inc (OKTA).