S&P Futures Gain With Focus on U.S. PCE Inflation Data

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending up +0.38% this morning, staging a partial rebound from the prior session’s losses, while investors brace for the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed in the red. Teleflex (TFX) plummeted over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company provided a downbeat full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the chipmaker’s good-but-not-great quarterly results disappointed investors. In addition, Salesforce (CRM) fell over -4% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and issuing below-consensus FY26 revenue guidance. On the bullish side, Invitation Homes (INVH) climbed more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after reporting better-than-expected Q4 revenue.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its second estimate of Q4 GDP growth, said on Thursday that the economy grew at an unrevised +2.3% annualized rate. Also, U.S. January durable goods orders advanced +3.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +2.0% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, U.S. pending home sales fell -4.6% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of -0.9% m/m and the biggest decline in 9 months. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +22K to a 2-1/2 month high of 242K, compared with the 222K expected.

“Investors want lower rates from the Fed, but they don’t want to get there by seeing a notable deterioration in the underlying economy,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “At the very least, if the economy is going to slow, investors will want to see inflation slow down too.”

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Thursday that interest rates are not “meaningfully restrictive” and should remain unchanged for some time as policymakers await clear evidence that inflation is moving toward their 2% target. “A patient approach will allow us time to monitor the trajectories for the labor market and inflation and how the economy in general is performing in the current rate environment,” Hammack said. Also, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said, “The policy rate remains restrictive enough to continue putting downward pressure on inflation over the longer term, as we need it to, while not negatively impacting the rest of the economy.” In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that the central bank could have to balance inflation risks against growth concerns. “While the risks to inflation appear to be to the upside, discussions with contacts in my district, as well as some recent data, suggest that elevated uncertainty might weigh on growth,” he noted. 

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.5% chance of no rate change and a 5.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March meeting.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y in January, compared to the previous figures of +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y. 

U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate January Personal Spending to be +0.2% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to December’s figures of +0.7% m/m and +0.4% m/m, respectively.

The U.S. Chicago PMI will be reported today. Economists expect this figure to come in at 40.5 in February, compared to the previous value of 39.5.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists foresee the preliminary January figure standing at +0.1% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -0.5% m/m.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.249%, down -0.89%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.31% this morning, tracking losses in Asia as U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest trade tariff remarks weighed on sentiment. Mining stocks led the declines on Friday as metal prices weakened amid Trump’s imminent tariff plans. Technology stocks also slumped following a selloff in AI darling Nvidia on Wall Street after its earnings report disappointed investors. However, the benchmark index was off its Friday lows after preliminary data from the statistics agency Insee showed that French inflation retreated to a 4-year low in February, strengthening the case for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Separately, data showed that Germany’s monthly retail sales rebounded in January, while the unemployment rate in Europe’s largest economy held steady in February despite creeping layoffs. In addition, an ECB survey revealed that Eurozone consumers reduced their near-term inflation expectations in January but still anticipated economic contraction ahead. Meanwhile, Trump signaled that the U.S. and U.K. could reach a “real trade deal” and escape tariffs while also hinting earlier this week at upcoming “reciprocal” tariffs on the European Union. Investor attention is now on Germany’s preliminary inflation data for February, due later in the session. In corporate news, Valeo (FR.FP) plunged over -12% after reporting its full-year results.

France’s CPI (preliminary), France’s GDP, Germany’s Retail Sales, Germany’s Unemployment Change, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, and Italy’s CPI (preliminary) data were released today. 

The French February CPI stood at +0.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y, better than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

The French GDP has been reported at -0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to expectations of -0.1% q/q and +0.7% y/y.

The German January Retail Sales arrived at +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m.

The German February Unemployment Change came in at 5K, stronger than expectations of 14K.

The German February Unemployment Rate was 6.2%, in line with expectations.

The Italian February CPI arrived at +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -1.98%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -2.88%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed sharply lower today as investor sentiment was dampened by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese goods. Software and semiconductor stocks led the declines on Friday. The benchmark index notched a weekly loss but posted gains for the month. Trump announced on Thursday a 10% duty on Chinese imports, set to take effect on March 4th, in addition to the 10% tariff imposed on February 4th, bringing the total tariff to 20%. Also dampening sentiment was China’s pledge to retaliate against Trump’s trade threats, increasing the risk of escalating tensions between the world’s largest economies. “If the U.S. insists on having its own way, China will counter with all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests,” a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said Friday. Meanwhile, state media cited the Politburo as saying after a meeting on Friday that China will prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key economic sectors. The Politburo stated that Asia’s largest economy will adopt a more proactive macro policy and boost domestic demand. Investors are now awaiting the annual National People’s Congress meeting starting next week for indications of Beijing’s plans to stimulate its economy. Focus will be on the details of fiscal stimulus measures designed to support economic growth. In corporate news, Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) surged over +11% in Hong Kong after the Chinese drug developer announced it had completed the localized deployment of the DeepSeek R&D platform.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, hitting a 5-month low as rising concerns about U.S. tariffs weighed on sentiment. Chip-related stocks led the declines on Friday, tracking Nvidia’s sharp overnight losses after it posted good-but-not-great quarterly results. Investors also grappled with U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs after he confirmed that levies on Mexico and Canada would take effect next week, and China would face an additional 10% tariff. The benchmark index posted losses for the week and for the month. Government data released on Friday showed that core consumer inflation in Japan’s capital eased in February, tempering speculation about an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Separately, government data showed that retail sales grew as expected in January, while industrial production fell for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated on Friday that the central bank will pursue further monetary tightening if the economy and inflation evolve as projected. Uchida also stated that the BOJ will continue to taper its government bond purchases despite recent rises in yields. In other news, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s party and a coalition partner cut the draft budget by $2.30 billion for the next fiscal year. In corporate news, Takara & Company Ltd. climbed over +5% after announcing plans to purchase land and a building in Toshima-ku for 3 billion yen by April 2026 to replace its aging annex. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +19.15% to 27.32.

The Japanese February Tokyo Core CPI came in at +2.2% y/y, better than expectations of +2.3% y/y.

The Japanese January Industrial Production (preliminary) arrived at -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.0% m/m.

The Japanese January Retail Sales stood at +3.9% y/y, in line with expectations.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Elastic (ESTC) jumped more than +13% in pre-market trading after the data analytics company posted upbeat FQ3 results.

SoundHound AI (SOUN) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 results and raised its FY25 revenue guidance.

HP Inc. (HPQ) fell more than -3% in pre-market trading after the company issued below-consensus FQ2 EPS guidance.

Dell Technologies (DELL) dropped over -2% in pre-market trading after the PC and server maker reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and issued weak Q1 guidance.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading, with the price of Bitcoin down more than -6%. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is down more than -3%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down about -3%, and Bit Digital (BTBT) is down over -3%.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - February 28th

Apellis Pharma (APLS), Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX), Amneal Pharma A (AMRX), PAR Technology (PAR), Global Partners (GLP), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), Sphere Entertainment (SPHR), Terawulf (WULF), Natural Resource LP (NRP), Fubotv (FUBO), Docebo (DCBO), ANI Pharma (ANIP), Butterfly Network (BFLY), Middlesex Water (MSEX), Owens&Minor (OMI), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Fulgent Genetics (FLGT), Oxford Square (OXSQ), Monroe Capital Corp (MRCC), Acme United (ACU), 1Stdibs.Com (DIBS), Rapid Micro Biosystems (RPID).