Wheat Extending Weakness on Thursday Morning

Wheat is continuing the recent trend of lower price action, with Thursday AM losses across the three exchanges. The wheat market posted losses on Wednesday, as the three markets were faced with weakness.  Chicago SRW futures were 6 to 8 cents in the red on the session. KC HRW futures posted losses of 6 to 7 cents at the midweek session. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the bear side, down 11 to 13 1/2 cents.

The annual USDA Outlook Forum showed the US wheat acreage total pegged at 47 million acres according to the Office of the Chief Economist. That was up 0.9 million acres from last year. Yield was estimated at 50.1 due to a ‘long term linear trend.’ Stocks were forecast at 826 mbu. We will get our first official look at acreage in the March Intentions report and the official balance sheet in the May WASDE.

NOAA’s 7-day QPF shows precip picking up in parts of the Eastern half of the US over the next week, mainly in the early portion of week. The Plains are expected to see lighter totals, mainly in the eastern portions. 

Export Sales data for the week that ended on February 20 will be released tomorrow morning, with traders looking for 2024/25 bookings at 300,000-600,000 MT, with new crop estimated to be in a range of 0-100,000 MT. 

Russian wheat production is estimated at 81-82 MMT for 2025 according to IKAR.

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.66, down 6 3/4 cents, currently down 7 1/2 cents

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.79 3/4, down 8 cents, currently down 6 3/4 cents

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.85, down 6 3/4 cents, currently down 3 cents

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.98 1/2, down 7 cents, currently down 5 3/4 cents

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.99 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents, currently down 1/2 cents

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.17 3/4, down 11 cents, currently down 2 cents