Stock Index Futures Slip as Trump’s Tariffs Fuel Growth Concerns, U.S. Economic Data and Home Depot Earnings on Tap

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.21%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.39% this morning, while Treasury yields also slipped amid worries that U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies could hurt global economic growth.

President Trump signaled on Monday that tariffs set to hit Canada and Mexico next month were “on time” and “moving along very rapidly” after an initial delay. His administration is also outlining stricter versions of U.S. semiconductor curbs and urging key allies to tighten their restrictions on China’s chip industry. Bloomberg News reported that Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts to discuss restricting Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding engineers from servicing semiconductor equipment in China.

Investors now await a new batch of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from home improvement chain Home Depot.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended mixed. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) slumped over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on continued worries about potential budget cuts by the Department of Defense. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) sliding more than -5% and Broadcom (AVGO) dropping over -4%. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) fell about -1% after TD Cowen analysts said in a note that the software giant canceled several AI data center leases. On the bullish side, Nike (NKE) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $115.

Meanwhile, market watchers are looking ahead to an earnings report from AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday, as well as the January reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. 

“If we see blowout earnings from Nvidia and softer-than-expected inflation data, that could add upward momentum to stocks,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.

Today, home improvement chain Home Depot (HD), as well as notable companies like Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), are slated to release their quarterly results.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 102.7, compared to last month’s figure of 104.1.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the December figure to be +4.4% y/y, compared to +4.3% y/y in November.

The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to come in at -3 in February, compared to the previous value of -4. 

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.5% chance of no rate change and a 4.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.340%, down -1.21%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.11% this morning, with investors focusing on corporate earnings and geopolitical developments. Healthcare and defense stocks outperformed on Tuesday. Limiting gains, technology stocks slumped following reports that the U.S. intends to tighten semiconductor restrictions on China. Mining stocks also retreated. Final data from the Federal Statistical Office released on Tuesday showed that the German economy shrank 0.2% in the fourth quarter, matching a prior estimate. The data highlights the magnitude of the challenge facing the next German government in reversing its economic fortunes. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has initiated talks with the Social Democrats to rapidly approve up to 200 billion euros ($210 billion) in special defense spending. In corporate news, Unilever Plc (ULVR.LN) fell over -1% after Hein Schumacher unexpectedly stepped down as the CEO. At the same time, Fresenius Medical Care Ag & CO Kgaa (FME.D.DX) rose about +2% after delivering positive guidance.

Germany’s GDP data was released today.

The German GDP has been reported at -0.2% q/q and -0.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.80% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.39%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, extending losses from the previous session as escalating geopolitical risks stoked a risk-off mood. Technology stocks led the declines on Tuesday. The selloff followed a Bloomberg News report that Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China. Also, Trump signed a memorandum on Friday that directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. to restrict Chinese spending on technology, energy, and other strategic American sectors, further dampening market sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged on Tuesday in a widely expected move, as authorities have signaled steady short-term policy rates so far this month. The People’s Bank of China injected 300 billion yuan ($41.4 billion) into the country’s financial system through its one-year medium-term lending facility at an interest rate of 2.0%. Investors are looking ahead to the “Two Sessions” meeting in early March for additional policy signals from Beijing. In corporate news, Li Auto surged over +12% in Hong Kong after the automaker introduced its first electric SUV, the i8, on Tuesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today as trading resumed after a holiday, with concerns over U.S. trade policies weighing on sentiment. The benchmark index hit a 3-month low on Tuesday. Electronics stocks led the declines, tracking weakness in their U.S. counterparts. A Bloomberg News report that Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts to discuss restricting Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding engineers from servicing semiconductor equipment in China also dampened risk appetite. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday showed that a key indicator of Japan’s service-sector inflation picked up in January as prices for various services continued to climb, keeping alive expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the central bank. In corporate news, Mitsubishi Corp. surged over +8% and Marubeni Corp. rose more than +7% after Berkshire Hathaway announced plans to increase its stakes in Japanese trading houses in an annual letter to shareholders. Investor attention this week is on Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo core inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday, which could provide new insights into the BOJ’s future monetary policy. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +12.20% to 23.63.

The Japanese January Corporate Services Price Index arrived at +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.9% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) fell nearly -1% in pre-market trading after a Bloomberg report stated that some officials in the Trump administration are seeking to impose additional restrictions on the type of Nvidia chips that can be exported to China without a license.

Chegg (CHGG) tumbled over -23% in pre-market trading after the online learning platform provided a below-consensus Q1 revenue forecast and said it was conducting a review of its business and exploring alternatives.

Tempus AI (TEM) plunged more than -16% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 results.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading, with the price of Bitcoin down more than -8%. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is down more than -6%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down about -6%, and Bit Digital (BTBT) is down over -7%.

EverQuote (EVER) surged over +23% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - February 25th

Home Depot (HD), Intuit (INTU), American Tower (AMT), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Workday (WDAY), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Sempra Energy (SRE), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Public Service Enterprise (PEG), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Extra Space Storage (EXR), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Amer Sports (AS), First Solar (FSLR), ChipMOS Tech (IMOS), CAVA Group (CAVA), Maplebear (CART), Smith&Nephew SNATS (SNN), Permian Resources (PR), Pinnacle West (PNW), Vaxcyte (PCVX), Henry Schein (HSIC), Range Resources (RRC), Masimo (MASI), Middleby Corp (MIDD), Topbuild Corp (BLD), Stantec (STN), Lucid Group (LCID), Planet Fitness Inc (PLNT), Jazz Pharma (JAZZ), ExlServices (EXLS), Caesars (CZR), Chord Energy (CHRD), CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings (CCCS), Armstrong World Industries (AWI), SPX Corp (SPXC), Merit (MMSI), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), Zeta Global Holdings (ZETA), Novanta (NOVT), Kontoor Brands (KTB), Matson (MATX), Sealed Air (SEE), Workiva Inc (WK), Baldwin Insurance (BWIN), Inter Parfums (IPAR), Itron (ITRI), SGHC Limited (SGHC), Procept Biorobotics (PRCT), IGT (IGT), DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN), Sterling Construction (STRL), ZoomInfo (ZI), Gulfport Energy Operating (GPOR), National Health Investors (NHI), Bitdeer Tech (BTDR), Outfront Media (OUT), Boston Beer (SAM), Driven Brands Holdings (DRVN), Oddity Tech (ODD), Lemonade (LMND), Flywire (FLYW), Revolve (RVLV), Delek Logistics Partners LP (DKL), Camping World Holdings (CWH), Huron (HURN), Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD), Harmony Bio (HRMY), Carter’s (CRI), UFP (UFPT), Sezzle (SEZL), Tarsus (TARS), Fidelis Insurance Holdings (FIHL), LGI Homes (LGIH), Supernus (SUPN), Cipher Mining (CIFR), Integra (IART), Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA), Sprout Social (SPT), Xometry (XMTR), Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Expro Holdings NV (XPRO), Grocery Outlet (GO), Arcutis (ARQT), agilon health (AGL), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Kiniksa Pharma (KNSA), Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc (XHR), RLJ Lodging (RLJ), Sila Realty Trust (SILA), MidCap Financial Investment (MFIC), Easterly Government Properties (DEA), Interface (TILE), Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN), Rxsight (RXST), International General Insurance (IGIC), Adapthealth (AHCO), Portillo’s (PTLO), Maravai Lifesciences (MRVI), Delek US Energy (DK), Nexpoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT), Arcus Biosciences (RCUS), SLR Investment (SLRC), Global Industrial Co (GIC), Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD), Hyster-Yale Materials Handling (HY), Couchbase (BASE), Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), Shutterstock (SSTK), CECO Environmental (CECO), Axogen Inc (AXGN), Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS), Jack In The Box (JACK), Orthofix (OFIX), Ziprecruiter (ZIP), USANA Health Sciences (USNA), Diversified Healthcare (DHC), Universal Insurance (UVE), Tetra Technologies (TTI), B&G Foods (BGS).