Stocks Set to Open Higher With All Eyes on Nvidia Earnings and Key U.S. Inflation Data

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.53%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.42% this morning, pointing to a partial rebound from Friday’s selloff on Wall Street.

This week, investors look ahead to an earnings report from semiconductor stalwart Nvidia, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge along with other key economic data.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply lower. Akamai Technologies (AKAM) tumbled over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the content delivery networking company issued below-consensus 2025 guidance. Also, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slumped more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Justice Department had launched an investigation into the health insurer’s Medicare billing practices. In addition, Block (XYZ) plunged over -17% after the company posted downbeat Q4 results and provided weak FY25 gross profit guidance. On the bullish side, MercadoLibre (MELI) climbed more than +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results. 

Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised lower to a 15-month low of 64.7 in February, weaker than expectations of no change at 67.8. Also, the U.S. February S&P Global services PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.7, weaker than expectations of 53.0. In addition, U.S. existing home sales fell -4.9% m/m to 4.08M in January, weaker than expectations of 4.13M. At the same time, the U.S. February S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to an 8-month high of 51.6, stronger than expectations of 51.3.

“With policy uncertainty and weaker retail sales guidance [last Thursday] from consumer spending bellwether Walmart, we may have the catalyst we need for a healthy correction. However, there’s still a strong foundation in place for the bull market to continue,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.

Market participants will focus on earnings reports from several major companies this week, with semiconductor giant Nvidia’s (NVDA) report on Wednesday attracting the most attention. BofA analysts noted recently that the results will serve as the “next important test for AI bulls.” Retailers such as Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), and TJX Companies (TJX), along with notable companies like Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Zoom (ZM), C3.ai (AI), Dell Technologies (DELL), and HP Inc. (HPQ), are also set to release their quarterly results this week.

On the economic data front, the January reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight this week. Market watchers will also be monitoring a spate of other economic data releases, including U.S. GDP (second estimate), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Goods Trade Balance, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), and the Chicago PMI.

Investors will also await further announcements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding his plans to impose hefty trade tariffs.

In addition, several central bankers are scheduled to deliver remarks this week, including Logan, Barr, Barkin, Bostic, Schmid, Bowman, Harker, and Goolsbee.

The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.437%, up +0.38%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.09% this morning as investors digested the outcome of Germany’s elections. Germany’s conservative leader Friedrich Merz secured victory in Sunday’s election, but the results left his Christian Democrat-led bloc with only one clear path to power, and they face intense pressure to swiftly form a government. Real estate and utility stocks led the gains on Monday, while mining stocks underperformed. Final data from Eurostat confirmed on Monday that the Eurozone annual inflation rate rose to 2.5% in January from 2.4% in the previous month. Separately, a survey showed that German business sentiment unexpectedly remained flat in February, presenting a challenging situation for a future government. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported on Monday that European Central Bank policymaker Pierre Wunsch warned that the Eurozone risks “sleepwalking” into excessive interest rate cuts and must be ready to stop soon. “I’m not pleading for a pause in April but we must not sleepwalk to 2% [interest rates] without thinking about it. If the data justify a new cut, we’ll cut. If they don’t, we might have to pause,” the Financial Times quoted Wunsch as saying on Friday. In corporate news, Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (TKWY.NA) spiked about +53% after Prosus N.V. agreed to buy the food delivery giant for about 4.1 billion euros ($4.3 billion).

Eurozone’s CPI, Eurozone’s Core CPI, and Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index were released today.

Eurozone January CPI came in at -0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone January Core CPI arrived at -0.9% m/m and +2.7% y/y, compared to expectations of -1.0% m/m and +2.7% y/y.

The German February Ifo Business Climate Index has been reported at 85.2, weaker than expectations of 85.9.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.18%, while Japanese financial markets were closed for a holiday.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as sentiment was dampened by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest salvo against the world’s second-largest economy. Technology stocks led the declines on Monday. Trump signed a memorandum on Friday that directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. to restrict Chinese spending on technology, energy, and other strategic American sectors. “Investors should not be complacent about escalating U.S.-China competition,” said Jefferies analysts following Trump’s move. Also, shipping stocks lost ground after the U.S. proposed fees on the use of commercial ships made in China to counter the country’s dominance in vessel production. In addition, the Trump administration urged Mexican officials to impose their own tariffs on Chinese imports. Limiting losses on Monday, property and liquor stocks advanced. George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, stated that the firm has observed some green shoots in the property sector over the past few months, signaling that “the worst of the property deleveraging cycle is behind us.” Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to the “Two Sessions” meeting in early March for additional policy signals from Beijing. In corporate news, China Vanke rose over +2% after announcing that its key shareholder, Shenzhen Metro, would provide a 4.2 billion yuan ($580.87 million) loan for the company to repay the principal and interest of its issued bonds.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Emperor’s Birthday holiday. The markets will reopen on Tuesday.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Berkshire Hathaway Cl B (BRK.B) climbed over +1% in pre-market trading after the Warren Buffett-owned conglomerate posted a record full-year profit.

Nike (NKE) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $115.

Rtx Corp. (RTX) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $147 price target.

Twilio (TWLO) advanced more than +3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $160.

Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 results.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - February 24th

ONEOK (OKE), Public Storage (PSA), Realty Income (O), Diamondback (FANG), Zoom Video (ZM), SBA Communications (SBAC), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Gfl Environmental (GFL), Domino’s Pizza Inc (DPZ), Owens Corning (OC), Westlake Chemical (WLK), Tempus AI (TEM), Hims Hers Health (HIMS), Viper Energy Ut (VNOM), BWX Tech (BWXT), KBR (KBR), Trex (TREX), JBTMarel (JBTM), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Clearway Energy C (CWEN), Civitas Resources (CIVI), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB), Primoris (PRIM), Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Black Stone Minerals (BSM), Veracyte Inc (VCYT), Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI), Quaker Chemical (KWR), Ziff Davis (ZD), Addus (ADUS), BioCryst (BCRX), Ultra Cleans (UCTT), Veris Residential (VRE), LTC Properties (LTC), Kosmos Energy (KOS), Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP), Apartment Invest (AIV), V2X Inc (VVX), Callaway Golf (MODG), Helios Tech (HLIO), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), Cannae (CNNE), Helix (HLX), Artivion (AORT), Netstreit (NTST).