Stock Index Futures Gain With U.S. PMI Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.11%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.28% this morning, partially rebounding from yesterday’s slump on Wall Street, while investors brace for U.S. business activity data.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the red. Walmart (WMT) slid over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the world’s largest retailer issued below-consensus FY26 guidance. Also, EPAM Systems (EPAM) tumbled more than -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company provided a disappointing full-year EPS forecast. In addition, Carvana (CVNA) plunged over -12% after the company reported a decline in gross profit per vehicle and lower wholesale volumes for the fourth quarter. On the bullish side, Hasbro (HAS) climbed nearly +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the toymaker posted better-than-expected Q4 results.

“This news out of Walmart raises even more concerns about the state of the consumer. We have already seen some very disappointing numbers on consumer confidence and last week’s retail sales data was much lower than expected. It raises some questions about how strong growth will be over the rest of this year,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.

Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to 18.1 in February, weaker than expectations of 19.4. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +5K to 219K, compared with the 215K expected. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.3% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that policy should stay “modestly restrictive” until there is clear evidence that inflation is moving toward the central bank’s 2% target, adding that he sees increased risks that progress could stall or even reverse. Also, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stated that upside risks to inflation persist, indicating support for the central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged for now.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% chance of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February Manufacturing PMI will come in at 51.3, compared to last month’s value of 51.2.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 52.9 in January. Economists expect the preliminary February figure to be 53.0.

U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure standing at 4.13M in January, compared to the previous number of 4.24M.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure at 67.8 in February, compared to 71.1 in January.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.489%, down -0.22%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.15% this morning as investors digested flash PMI data from the region as well as fresh corporate earnings reports. Chemical stocks outperformed on Friday, while energy and insurance stocks lost ground. Still, the benchmark index is on track to snap an 8-week winning streak. A survey released on Friday showed that Eurozone business activity experienced sluggish growth in February as demand declined at a faster rate, while an expansion in services only marginally offset a prolonged downturn in manufacturing. Separately, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that Britain’s monthly retail sales rebounded more than expected in January, though rising inflation and weak consumer confidence suggest the sector’s outlook remains uncertain. In addition, final data from the statistical office Istat confirmed that Italy’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.5% in January from 1.3% in the previous month. Meanwhile, investors will be keeping a close eye on Germany. The conservative alliance, which is expected to secure the most votes in Sunday’s election, supports keeping the debt brake intact, though its leader, Friedrich Merz, has indicated openness to adjusting it. In corporate news, Air Liquide (AI.FP) rose over +3% after the industrial gases supplier posted better-than-expected 2024 sales and boosted its medium-term operating margin forecast. Also, Standard Chartered Plc (STAN.LN) gained more than +4% after the lender posted an 18% increase in full-year profit and announced a new $1.5 billion share buyback.

U.K.’s Retail Sales, U.K.’s Core Retail Sales, Italy’s CPI, Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

U.K. January Retail Sales arrived at +1.7% m/m and +1.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +0.6% y/y.

U.K. January Core Retail Sales came in at +2.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +0.5% y/y.

The Italian January CPI stood at +0.6% m/m and +1.5% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone February Manufacturing PMI has been reported at 47.3, stronger than expectations of 46.9.

Eurozone February Services PMI came in at 50.7, weaker than expectations of 51.5.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.85%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.26%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today amid upbeat sentiment surrounding the tech sector. Technology stocks outperformed on Friday as optimism toward the sector got a boost from Alibaba’s latest earnings. Also, AI-related stocks continued to attract investor interest following DeepSeek’s tech breakthrough. In addition, investors are optimistic that Beijing will transition to a more favorable regulatory environment for the private sector after a years-long regulatory crackdown. The benchmark index notched its third consecutive weekly gain. Meanwhile, Chinese officials are mapping out plans to leverage the nation’s vast customer base. Premier Li Qiang took the lead Thursday, calling on China’s cabinet to “vigorously” enhance the supply of services across industries such as education, healthcare, culture, and sports, though details were not provided. The world’s second-largest economy will depend more on boosting consumption to drive growth, he added, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Investors are also looking ahead to the “Two Sessions” meeting in early March for additional measures to bolster the economy. In corporate news, Alibaba jumped over +14% in Hong Kong after the e-commerce giant posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue and announced plans to increase investments in e-commerce and AI.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier losses and closed higher today following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Automobile and pharmaceutical stocks outperformed on Friday. Despite Friday’s gains, the benchmark index posted a weekly loss. Government data released on Friday showed that core inflation in Japan accelerated more than expected in January, reaching its highest level in 19 months. Separately, preliminary business surveys showed that Japan’s factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in February, albeit at a slower pace, while the service sector continued to expand. These figures bolstered expectations that the BOJ will proceed with interest rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields retreated from a decade-high, and the yen weakened past 150 per dollar on Friday after remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda eased concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes by the central bank. Ueda stated that the central bank is prepared to ramp up government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise sharply. “In exceptional cases where long-term interest rates rise sharply in a way somewhat different from normal movements, we will flexibly increase purchases of government bonds to promote stable formation of interest rates in the market,” Ueda told a parliamentary committee. In corporate news, Nissan Motor soared more than +9% after the Financial Times reported that a top-level Japanese group had formulated plans for Elon Musk’s Tesla to invest in the struggling automaker. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.29% to 21.06.

The Japanese January National Core CPI came in at +3.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.1% y/y.

The Japanese February au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) arrived at 48.9, weaker than expectations of 49.0.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Booking Holdings (BKNG) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results. 

Celsius Holdings (CELH) soared about +31% in pre-market trading after the energy drink maker posted upbeat Q4 results and confirmed its $1.8 billion acquisition of rival Alani Nutrition.

Five9 (FIVN) surged over +14% in pre-market trading after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 results and offering solid full-year guidance.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) slumped more than -9% in pre-market trading after the content delivery networking company issued below-consensus 2025 guidance.

Block (XYZ) slid over -6% in pre-market trading after the company posted downbeat Q4 results and provided weak FY25 gross profit guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - February 21st

Vipshop (VIPS), United States Cellular (USM), Balchem (BCPC), TXNM Energy (TXNM), Telephone&Data Systems (TDS), Brady (BRC), Atmus Filtration Tech (ATMU), Arbor (ABR), Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO), Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Uniti Group (UNIT), AdvanSix (ASIX), Oil States (OIS), StealthGas (GASS).