S&P Futures Tick Lower After Fresh Tariff Threats, FOMC Minutes and U.S. Housing Data Awaited

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending down -0.11% this morning as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats.

President Trump said on Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs of approximately 25% on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an announcement expected as soon as April 2nd. This fueled concerns about an escalating trade war and pushed Treasury yields higher. Treasury yields also tracked rising government bond yields in Europe after inflation in Britain jumped to a 10-month high.

Market participants now look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes, comments from a Fed official, and fresh data on the U.S. housing market.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed in the green. Intel (INTC) surged over +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Broadcom are each exploring deals that would break up the chip giant. Also, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) climbed more than +14% after CNBC reported that a take-private deal with private equity firm Sycamore Partners remains possible. In addition, Constellation Brands (STZ) gained nearly +4% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new stake in the company. On the bearish side, Medtronic (MDT) slumped more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the MedTech giant reported weaker-than-expected FQ3 revenue.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 5.70 in February, stronger than expectations of -1.90.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that monetary policy must stay restrictive until further progress is made on inflation, which she anticipates will keep declining over time. “There’s, in my mind, no reason to be discouraged about the progress on inflation today. It just is going to take longer than anyone wants,” Daly said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.

Today, investors will closely monitor the publication of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the January 28-29 meeting for further indications that rate cuts remain unlikely in the foreseeable future amid expectations that inflation may remain elevated for longer. Market watchers will pay particular attention to any comments on the potential inflationary impact of President Trump’s proposed policies, including trade tariffs.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data. Economists expect January Building Permits to be 1.460M and Housing Starts to be 1.390M, compared to the prior figures of 1.482M and 1.499M, respectively.

Market participants will also look forward to a speech from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Analog Devices (ADI), Carvana (CVNA), and Etsy (ETSY) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.564%, up +0.44%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.27% this morning as investors digested fresh corporate earnings and hotter-than-expected U.K. inflation data. Increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty also dampened sentiment. Real estate stocks underperformed on Wednesday. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Wednesday showed that U.K. annual inflation in January hit its highest level since last March, adding complexity to the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Separately, data from the European Central Bank showed that the Eurozone’s current account surplus surged in December, driven by increased services income and a higher primary balance. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta stated on Wednesday that a sluggish Eurozone economy presents downside risks to inflation, noting that the main upside risks to prices stem from energy. In corporate news, Kon.Philips N.V. (PHIA.NA) plunged over -12% after the Dutch healthcare technology group reported weaker-than-expected Q4 sales growth. Also, Glencore Plc (GLEN.LN) fell more than -6% after reporting a decline in full-year profit. At the same time, STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP) climbed over +5% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.

U.K.’s CPI, U.K.’s Core CPI, and Eurozone’s Current Account data were released today.

U.K. January CPI has been reported at -0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y.

U.K. January Core CPI came in at -0.4% m/m and +3.7% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.5% m/m and +3.7% y/y.

Eurozone December Current Account arrived at 38.4B euros, stronger than expectations of 30.2B euros.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.81%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.27%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, rebounding from the prior session’s losses. Semiconductor and technology stocks outperformed on Wednesday. Investor sentiment remained upbeat following President Xi Jinping’s rare meeting with business leaders, which many viewed as a potential shift away from the years-long regulatory crackdown. Also, excitement over DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence advancements continued to boost market sentiment, with the nation’s major companies integrating its technology. Meanwhile, China’s drop in new home prices eased for the fifth consecutive month in January, indicating that values are stabilizing as policymakers intensify efforts to end the property downturn. New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slipped 0.07% from December, following a 0.08% decline, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Wednesday. Investors are awaiting the “Two Sessions” meeting in early March to assess Beijing’s economic growth plan for this year. In corporate news, Baidu slid over -2% in Hong Kong after the search engine operator posted its third straight quarterly revenue drop.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as worries over borrowing costs and U.S. tariffs weighed on sentiment. Automobile stocks led the declines on Wednesday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about tariffs on cars. Limiting losses, bank stocks advanced on expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Ministry of Finance data released Wednesday showed that Japan’s exports rose in January for the fourth consecutive month, driven by stronger demand for cars and ships, although the increase was slightly below expectations. Separately, the Reuters Tankan poll showed that business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers improved for the second straight month in February. At the same time, data showed that Japan’s monthly core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, unexpectedly fell in December. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened after BOJ policy board member Hajime Takata said Wednesday that the central bank must continue adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation, warning that inflation could rise too high. “It is important to shift gears gradually - even after the additional interest-rate hike in January - to avoid the risks of price upswings and financial overheating from becoming a reality,” Takata said. Investor attention is now on Japan’s CPI report for January, set for release on Friday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -0.85% to 19.83.

The Japanese January Trade Balance has been reported at -2,758.8B yen, weaker than expectations of -2,100.0B yen.

The Japanese January Exports arrived at +7.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +7.9% y/y.

The Japanese January Imports stood at +16.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +9.7% y/y.

The Japanese December Core Machinery Orders came in at -1.2% m/m and +4.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +6.9% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Bumble (BMBL) tumbled over -17% in pre-market trading after the company issued below-consensus Q1 revenue guidance. 

Celanese (CE) plunged about -13% in pre-market trading after the specialty chemicals company swung to a quarterly loss.

Toll Brothers (TOL) slid more than -5% in pre-market trading after the builder posted weaker-than-expected FQ1 results and provided weak FQ2 deliveries guidance. 

Global Blue Holding (GB) surged over +18% in pre-market trading after Shift4 Payments agreed to acquire the company for $7.50 per share in cash.

Workday (WDAY) fell more than -2% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - February 19th

Analog Devices (ADI), Carvana (CVNA), Manulife Financial (MFC), Garmin (GRMN), Texas Pacific (TPL), ANSYS (ANSS), Nutrien (NTR), American Water Works (AWK), Toast (TOST), Trimble (TRMB), CF Industries (CF), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Klaviyo (KVYO), Nordson (NDSN), Biomarin Pharma (BMRN), Wix.Com Ltd (WIX), Clean Harbors (CLH), Host Hotels Resorts (HST), GlobalE Online (GLBE), Alamos Gold (AGI), EXACT Sciences (EXAS), Pan American Silver NQ (PAAS), Churchill Downs (CHDN), Wingstop Inc (WING), OGE Energy (OGE), Gildan Activewear (GIL), Charles River Laboratories (CRL), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Parsons (PSN), Jackson Financial (JXN), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Etsy Inc (ETSY), Healthcare RT (HR), Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), Remitly Global (RELY), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Ionis Pharma (IONS), Krystal Biotech (KRYS), SM Energy (SM), TFI Intl (TFII), One Gas Inc (OGS), Enpro Industries (NPO), Cinemark (CNK), Tanger Inc (SKT), Sabra (SBRA), Travel + Leisure Co (TNL), Osisko Gold Ro (OR), HudBay Minerals (HBM), Northern Oil&Gas (NOG), CLARIVATE (CLVT), ACV Auctions (ACVA), Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM), B2Gold (BTG), Equinox Gold (EQX), Broadstone Net (BNL), McGrath (MGRC), Amicus (FOLD), The Cheesecake (CAKE), American States Water (AWR), Park Hotels & Resorts (PK), Coeur Mining (CDE), Oceaneering International (OII), Mister Car Wash (MCW), Empire State Realty (ESRT), OneSpaWorld (OSW), New Gold (NGD), Appian (APPN), Bausch Health (BHC), Enovix (ENVX), Openlane (KAR), Trupanion (TRUP), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), Materion (MTRN), Enlight Energy (ENLT), PROG Holdings (PRG), Gibraltar Industries (ROCK), Rogers (ROG), Amplitude (AMPL), Wolverine (WWW), Imax (IMAX), Liberty Latin America (LILA), Stepan (SCL), Vital Energy (VTLE), Fiverr International (FVRR), Kaiser (KALU), Vimeo (VMEO), Gentherm (THRM), Nerdwallet (NRDS).