S&P Futures Tick Lower With U.S. Retail Sales Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending down -0.15% this morning, taking a breather at the end of a turbulent week, while investors await a raft of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 posting a 1-1/2 week high and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching an 8-week high. MGM Resorts International (MGM) surged over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the casino operator reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results. Also, chip stocks advanced after Treasury yields retreated, with Intel (INTC) climbing more than +7% and Micron Technology (MU) rising over +4%. In addition, AppLovin (APP) jumped more than +24% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the mobile software company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) cratered over -38% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after issuing below-consensus FY25 guidance. Also, The Trade Desk (TTD) tumbled more than -32% after the ad tech firm posted weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and provided disappointing Q1 revenue guidance. 

Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.4% m/m and +3.5% y/y in January, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y in January, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -7K to 213K, compared with the 217K expected.

“While PPI was much higher than expected, with even higher revisions, the real data that goes into PCE was weaker. And PCE is the one that Jerome Powell and the Fed look at. So in reality, the numbers are better,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. 

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% chance of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday ordered his administration to explore the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on multiple trading partners. Trump signed a measure directing the U.S. Trade Representative and Commerce Secretary to propose new tariffs on a country-by-country basis to rebalance trade relations, a comprehensive process that could span weeks or months to complete. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, stated that all studies should be finalized by April 1st, allowing Trump to take action immediately thereafter.

“The fact this is a slow burn approach from Trump, with the chance many of the tariffs will be extinguished, is supporting market sentiment,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that January Retail Sales will stand at -0.2% m/m, compared to the December figure of +0.4% m/m.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.4% m/m in December. Economists expect the January figure to be +0.3% m/m.

U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be reported today. Economists forecast January Industrial Production at +0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production at +0.1% m/m, compared to December’s figures of +0.9% m/m and +0.6% m/m, respectively.

U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes will be released today as well. Economists anticipate the export price index to be +0.3% m/m and the import price index to be +0.4% m/m in January, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively. 

In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.528%, up +0.07%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.20% this morning, with the benchmark index on track for a strong weekly gain. Luxury stocks outperformed on Friday, with Hermes Intl (RMS.FP) rising over +2% after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 sales. Final data from the National Statistics Institute released on Friday showed that Spain’s annual inflation rate was revised lower to 2.9% in January from the preliminary reading of 3.0%, though it still marked an acceleration from 2.8% in December. Separately, Eurostat said Friday in new estimates that the Eurozone economy expanded slightly more than initially thought in the fourth quarter, but employment saw minimal growth, providing further evidence that the regional economy remains largely stagnant. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lifted its 12-month price target for Europe’s STOXX 600 to 580 from 540, citing potential benefits from a Ukraine peace deal, such as lower risk premiums, reduced energy costs, improved consumer confidence, and stronger economic growth. In other corporate news, Tomra Systems ASA (TOM.O.DX) surged more than +9% after the Norwegian recycling and sensor-based solutions company posted strong Q4 results.

Spain’s CPI, Eurozone’s GDP (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Employment Change (preliminary) data were released today.

The Spanish January CPI came in at +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y.

Eurozone GDP has been reported at +0.1% q/q and +0.9% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to expectations of 0.0% q/q and +0.9% y/y.

Eurozone Employment Change arrived at +0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.8% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.43%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.79%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as the nation’s growing capabilities in artificial intelligence continued to boost sentiment. The benchmark index notched its second consecutive weekly gain. Pharmaceutical and software stocks led the gains on Friday, benefiting from the AI momentum. Nomura analyst Jialin Zhang believes that investors are wagering on the pharma sector’s AI potential, particularly in diagnosis, contract research, and drug development, following the latest DeepSeek breakthrough. Adding to the positive sentiment, the People’s Bank of China has indicated potential policy adjustments to address increasing external challenges, committing to support the yuan amid trade tensions affecting the currency. In its quarterly report, China’s central bank stated that it would adjust the pace and intensity of its policy measures in response to domestic and global economic and financial conditions. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs were not immediately implemented, alleviating fears of an imminent global trade war. In corporate news, BYD rose over +4% after Reuters reported that the Chinese electric carmaker secured mineral rights for two plots of land in a lithium-rich area of Brazil in 2023. Also, Alibaba Group climbed more than +6% in Hong Kong after company chairman Joe Tsai confirmed on Thursday that it will collaborate with Apple on AI service offerings for iPhones in China.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as some investors took profits following a recent rally. Also, a stronger yen weighed on sentiment. The Japanese currency strengthened on expectations of a softer U.S. PCE inflation reading and a delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Conglomerate and heavy-machinery stocks underperformed on Friday. Still, the benchmark index posted solid gains for the week. Meanwhile, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Friday that the government has approached the U.S. regarding Trump’s plan to impose tariffs equivalent to those set by other countries. “We have already begun communicating with the U.S.,” he said. In other news, Japan’s lower house of parliament on Friday approved the government nominee, Junko Koeda, for the Bank of Japan’s policy board, setting the stage for full endorsement in the legislature. In corporate news, Sony Group climbed over +8% after the audio equipment maker posted robust results in its games and music divisions. Also, Toppan Holdings surged more than +15% after the printing company boosted its full-year net profit forecast. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +5.44% to 21.11.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Applied Materials (AMAT) slumped more than -5% in pre-market trading after the chipmaking equipment maker provided a weak FQ2 revenue forecast. 

Airbnb (ABNB) climbed about +13% in pre-market trading after the vacation home rentals posted upbeat Q4 results.

Roku (ROKU) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 results and said it aims to be profitable in FY26.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slid more than -5% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company issued below-consensus FQ3 adjusted EPS guidance. 

DaVita (DVA) plunged over -9% in pre-market trading after the dialysis firm offered a disappointing 2025 adjusted EPS forecast. 

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - February 14th

Enbridge (ENB), Natwest Group (NWG), TC Energy (TRP), Fannie Mae (FNMA), Fortis Inc (FTS), Moderna (MRNA), Magna Intl (MGA), Essent Group Ltd (ESNT), Bgc Group (BGC), Portland General Electric (POR), Newmark Group (NMRK), Sensient Technologies (SXT), Treehouse Foods (THS), Marcus & Millichap (MMI), American Axle&Manufacturing (AXL), AMC Networks (AMCX).