Inflation Still a Concern: January CPI Data Exceeds Forecasts

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending down -1.08% this morning as investors digest key U.S. inflation data and also await further testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

January's inflation figures exceeded expectations, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.5% for the month and the annual rate ticking up to 3%, signaling that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates. 

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. DuPont de Nemours (DD) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the industrial materials maker reported better-than-expected Q4 results. Also, Coca-Cola (KO) advanced more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the beverage maker posted upbeat Q4 results. In addition, Intel (INTC) rose over +6% after U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration would ensure that advanced artificial intelligence chips are manufactured in the country. On the bearish side, Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) plunged more than -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the payment technology company issued below-consensus Q1 guidance. 

In prepared remarks for a Senate hearing Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut rates. “With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” he said. Also, Powell described the labor market as “not a source of significant inflationary pressures.” In addition, the Fed chief noted that speculating on tariff policy at this time would be unwise.

“He’ll want to see the February jobs and inflation data, and align with other policymakers before saying much,” said David Russell at TradeStation.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Tuesday that keeping interest rates steady for “some time” is appropriate as policymakers wait for further progress on inflation and assess the economic impact of new government policies. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said that “the modestly restrictive stance of policy should support the return to 2% inflation while sustaining solid economic growth and labor market conditions,” but cautioned that policy-related uncertainty casts a shadow over the economic outlook.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.5% probability of no rate change and a 4.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.

Today, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, due later in the day. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Christopher Waller are scheduled to speak today as well. 

On the earnings front, notable companies like Cisco (CSCO), AppLovin (APP), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), The Trade Desk (TTD), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and Reddit (RDDT) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.549%, up +0.26%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.22% this morning as investors digested the latest earnings news and looked ahead to the key U.S. inflation print. Food and beverage stocks led the gains on Wednesday, while energy stocks retreated. Data from statistics agency Istat released on Wednesday showed that Italy’s monthly industrial production fell the most in nearly 3 years in December. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated on Wednesday that the tariff policies of U.S. President Trump are likely to affect the Eurozone and the global economy. In corporate news, Heineken (HEIA.NA) soared over +12% after the Dutch brewer reported stronger-than-expected annual profit and launched a 1.5 billion euro ($1.55 billion) share buyback program. Also, Banco Bpm Spa (BAMI.M.DX) rose about +1% after the lender posted strong 2024 results and updated targeted profits and payouts for investors through 2027.

Italy’s Industrial Production data was released today.

The Italian December Industrial Production came in at -3.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.1% m/m.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.85%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.42%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses and closed higher today. Property stocks led the gains on Wednesday, with China Vanke surging nearly +10% after Bloomberg reported that Beijing is considering a funding plan worth billions of dollars to help the company repay debt. Technology stocks also advanced as the excitement around DeepSeek continued to bolster sentiment. Morgan Stanley equity strategists noted that global investors are beginning to reevaluate China’s investability in the tech and AI space, as U.S.-China competition has broadened from trade and tariffs to high-end manufacturing and AI. Meanwhile, investors found some relief after Donald Trump disclosed that he had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping since his inauguration on January 20th, though he did not offer specifics on the conversation’s timeline or subjects discussed. Still, the ongoing risk of Trump’s escalating tariffs continues to pose a threat to the nation’s economy, especially its export-dependent industries. In other corporate news, Alibaba Group climbed more than +8% in Hong Kong after The Information reported that Apple is partnering with the company to integrate AI features into products in China.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today as trading resumed after a holiday. A weaker yen supported the benchmark index, but gains were limited due to ongoing concerns about U.S. tariff policy. Industrial and some electronics stocks outperformed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the yen is poised for its longest losing streak in over a month amid growing concerns that Japan could be included in U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plan. The Japanese government requested Trump on Wednesday to exempt the nation’s companies from his newly imposed tariffs. In other news, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated Wednesday that the central bank needs to fully assess the impact of Trump’s policies before factoring them into its economic forecasts. In corporate news, Fujikura jumped more than +10% after posting a 65.1% year-over-year increase in profit for the nine months ending in December. Investor attention is now on Japan’s PPI data for January, scheduled for release on Thursday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.40% to 21.01.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after the artificial intelligence server company provided an aggressive long-term revenue forecast and said it hopes to file its delayed annual and quarterly reports by February 25th.

Lyft (LYFT) slumped more than -12% in pre-market trading after the company gave disappointing guidance for Q1 gross bookings.

Upstart Holdings (UPST) jumped over +25% in pre-market trading after the AI-driven lending platform posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 and FY25 revenue guidance.

DoorDash (DASH) gained more than +6% in pre-market trading after the food delivery company reported better-than-expected Q4 gross order value and provided a strong Q1 order outlook.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) rose over +4% in pre-market trading after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 results and giving solid FY25 guidance. 

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - February 12th

Cisco (CSCO), Applovin (APP), Equinix (EQIX), CME Group (CME), CVS Health Corp (CVS), Williams (WMB), The Trade Desk (TTD), Waste Connections (WCN), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Dominion Energy (D), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), Exelon (EXC), HubSpot (HUBS), Reddit (RDDT), Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Sun Life Financial (SLF), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Restaurant Brands (QSR), Smurfit Westrock (SW), Tyler Technologies (TYL), Ventas (VTR), Rollins (ROL), Waters (WAT), Biogen (BIIB), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), NiSource (NI), Kinross Gold (KGC), Aurora Innovation (AUR), Curtiss-Wright (CW), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Antero Resources Corp (AR), Paycom Soft (PAYC), MGM (MGM), IPG (IPG), Lithia Motors (LAD), Royal Gold (RGLD), Pegasystems (PEGA), Albemarle (ALB), Generac (GNRC), Wyndham Hotels (WH), Antero Midstream (AM), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND), West Fraser Timber (WFG), Casella (CWST), Mr. Cooper (COOP), Cognex (CGNX), Ryder System (R), First American (FAF), MSA Safety (MSA), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), STAG Industrial (STAG), Siteone Landscape Supply (SITE), Q2 Holdings (QTWO), Dutch Bros (BROS), Essential Properties (EPRT), GXO Logistics (GXO), Alkermes Plc (ALKS), Caretrust (CTRE), Independence Realty Trust (IRT), Kadant (KAI), Advanced Energy (AEIS), Copa (CPA), Crane NXT (CXT), Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT), Sylvamo (SLVM), Palomar (PLMR), Quidel (QDEL), Urban Edge Properties (UE), Four Corners Property Trust Inc (FCPT), Sonic Automotive (SAH), Quantumscape (QS), Rapid7 Inc (RPD), The Chefs Warehouse (CHEF), Upwork (UPWK), AtriCure (ATRC), Patria Investments (PAX), Getty (GTY), Diebold Nixdorf (DBD), P10 Inc (PX), Tronox (TROX), Fastly (FSLY), 10X Genomics (TXG), Kornit Digital Ltd (KRNT), Veeco (VECO), Chimera Investment (CIM), Corsair (CRSR), Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN).