Stock Index Futures Slip on Trump Tariffs, Powell’s Testimony on Tap

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.33%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.44% this morning as investors digested another round of tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump and looked ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony as well as Wednesday’s release of a key U.S. inflation report.

Late Monday, President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including key suppliers Mexico and Canada, effective March 12th, but stated he would consider an exemption for Australia. Trump earlier said he would introduce reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax U.S. imports this week.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended higher. Rockwell Automation (ROK) surged over +12% after the automation products maker reported better-than-expected FQ1 adjusted EPS. Also, aluminum and steel company stocks advanced after Trump announced plans to impose a 25% levy on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) soaring more than +17% and Alcoa (AA) rising over +2%. In addition, McDonald’s (MCD) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the burger chain posted an unexpected increase in Q4 comparable sales. On the bearish side, ON Semiconductor (ON) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker posted downbeat Q4 results and issued below-consensus Q1 guidance. 

Today, market participants will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee for insights into the rate outlook. Powell will likely emphasize the resilient economy as a primary reason policymakers are not in a hurry to further reduce borrowing costs. 

Also, investors will likely focus on speeches from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, and New York Fed President John Williams, due later in the day.

Aside from Powell’s testimony, the U.S. consumer inflation report for January, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will be a highlight, as it may indicate when U.S. interest rates are next likely to be cut, if at all. The CPI is expected to remain unchanged from December at +2.9% y/y, while the core CPI is projected to ease to +3.1% y/y from +3.2% y/y in December. 

“Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market story,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “If the S&P 500 is going to break out of its two-month consolidation, it may need a respite from the types of negative surprises - like DeepSeek, tariffs, and consumer sentiment - that have tripped it up over the past few weeks.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.5% probability of no rate change and a 6.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Coca-Cola (KO), Shopify (SHOP), Gilead (GILD), Marriott (MAR), and DoorDash (DASH) are set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.

The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.521%, up +0.58%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.07% this morning as cautious sentiment prevailed amid escalating global trade tensions. Food & beverage and energy stocks outperformed on Tuesday, while mining and travel & leisure stocks lost ground. Meanwhile, the European Union stated it would retaliate against any tariffs imposed by the U.S., raising concerns about a potential escalation of the global trade war. “I deeply regret the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on European steel and aluminum exports. Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered - they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a Tuesday statement. In corporate news, Kering (KER.FP) climbed over +3% after the French luxury group posted better-than-expected Q4 revenue. At the same time, Entain Plc (ENT.LN) tumbled more than -10% after the British bookmaker announced that CEO Gavin Isaacs would step down immediately.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Tuesday. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.12%, while Japanese financial markets were closed for a holiday.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, snapping a 3-day winning streak. Consumer and property stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Investor sentiment was subdued despite pledges from China’s cabinet to increase spending and attract foreign investment. In a weekly meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, the State Council stated on Monday that it would focus on boosting residents’ incomes, fostering sustainable income growth, and broadening property-related income channels, all intended to stimulate domestic consumption. Investors also weighed the potential effects of the latest tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which indirectly affect China. Meanwhile, investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence stocks waned on Tuesday as they took some profits after a 12% rally since the market reopened following the Chinese New Year holidays. In other news, Goldman Sachs said in a note that global hedge funds have been aggressively purchasing Chinese stocks this year, with their buying activity gaining momentum over the past week following the emergence of DeepSeek. In corporate news, SAIC Motor climbed over +4% after a mainland media outlet reported that the company set up a new vehicle brand with Huawei. At the same time, Xpeng slumped -9% and Geely Auto plunged more than -10% in Hong Kong amid concerns that they will face challenges competing with BYD’s move to provide smart driving features for free across nearly its entire lineup.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the National Foundation Day holiday. The markets will reopen on Wednesday.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

SelectQuote (SLQT) jumped over +32% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat FQ2 results, raised its FY25 revenue guidance, and announced a $350 million strategic investment from funds managed by Bain Capital, Morgan Stanley Private Credit, and Newlight Partners.

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) surged more than +14% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 revenue, provided solid Q1 revenue guidance, and named Lorenzo Flores as the new CFO.

Phillips 66 (PSX) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist Elliott Investment Management had built a more than $2.5 billion stake in the oil refiner.

Fluence Energy (FLNC) plummeted about -35% in pre-market trading after the company posted downbeat FQ1 results and cut its full-year guidance.

Harmonic (HLIT) tumbled more than -27% in pre-market trading after issuing weaker-than-expected FY25 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - February 11th

Coca-Cola (KO), S&P Global (SPGI), Shopify (SHOP), Gilead (GILD), Welltower (WELL), Marriott (MAR), DoorDash (DASH), Energy Transfer (ET), Ecolab (ECL), Carrier Global (CARR), AIG (AIG), Fidelity National Info (FIS), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Humana (HUM), DuPont De Nemours (DD), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Zillow Group (ZG), Leidos (LDOS), Carlyle Group (CG), Masco (MAS), Royalty Pharma (RPRX), WP Carey Inc (WPC), Assurant (AIZ), Confluent (CFLT), Allison Transmission (ALSN), Primerica (PRI), Exelixis (EXEL), WESCO (WCC), Sunoco LP (SUN), AutoNation (AN), Agree Realty (ADC), TPG Inc (TPG), Upstart (UPST), LYFT (LYFT), Freshworks (FRSH), Kite Realty (KRG), OneStream (OS), Blackline (BL), Sensata Tech (ST), Mirion Technologies (MIR), Brighthouse Financial (BHF), SolarWinds Corp (SWI), Highwoods Properties (HIW), Avis (CAR), Teradata (TDC), IPG Photonics (IPGP), Red Rock Resorts (RRR), Acadia (AKR), Mercury General (MCY), LCI Industries (LCII), Diodes (DIOD), Inventrust Properties (IVT), Monarch (MCRI), Pitney Bowes (PBI), WK Kellogg (KLG), SimilarWeb (SMWB), Arvinas (ARVN), Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT), MRC Global (MRC), ANGI Homeservices (ANGI), MYT Netherlands (MYTE), Silvercorp Metals (SVM), United Fire (UFCS), Anterix (ATEX), Doubledown (DDI), SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE), Ceragon (CRNT), Bioceres Crop (BIOX), Forrester (FORR), Electromed (ELMD), Atomera (ATOM), Proficient Auto Logistics (PAL), Franklin Street Properties (FSP), Evolution Petroleum (EPM), Genasys Inc (GNSS).