Wheat Slipping as Tariff Date Nears

The wheat complex is trading with double digit losses across the three exchanges on Friday morning. Wheat futures extended the gains across the three markets on Thursday.. Chicago SRW futures were up another 3 to 4 cents in the nearbys at the close. KC HRW futures were 7 to 8 cents higher in the front months on the session. MPLS spring wheat was 5 to 7 cents in the green on the day. Precip remains limited in much of the Plains for the next week.

Late on Thursday afternoon, President Trump stated he would go ahead with the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada on Saturday. No retaliatory measures from either country have officially been announced. In 2024 wheat exports to Mexico were 16.56% of the total.

Export Sales data was released on Thursday morning, with USDA showing 456,086 MT during the week of 1/23, well above the previous week and 41.41 % larger than the same week last year. That was in the high side of the 150,000 to 500,000 MT in 2024/25 wheat sales. The top buyer was the Philippines at 86,200 MT, with unknown in for 85,300 MT. There was also 24,204 MT in 2025/26 sales, in the middle of the 0 to 50,000 MT estimates and split between Peru and El Salvador. 

Japan purchased 89,134 MT of wheat from the US and Canada, with 29,070 MT US specific in their weekly tender overnight. SovEcon estimates the Russian 2024/25 wheat export total at 42.8 MMT, down 0.9 MMT from the prior number.

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.66 1/2, up 4 cents, currently down 11 3/4 cents

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.79, up 3 cents, currently down 11 1/4 cents

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.88 1/4, up 8 cents, currently down 13 1/4 cents

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.98 1/4, up 8 cents, currently down 13 cents

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.20 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents, currently down 9 1/4 cents

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.28, up 5 3/4 cents, currently down 8 1/4 cents