Stock Index Futures Climb as Bond Yields Fall

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.31%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.38% this morning as Treasury yields fell after cash trading resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday.

Today, the U.S. stock markets will be opened for a half-session, with trading ending at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.

In Wednesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed in the red. Dell Technologies (DELL) slumped over -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the IT giant reported weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and issued downbeat Q4 guidance. Also, HP Inc. (HPQ) slid more than -11% after the PC giant provided below-consensus FQ1 adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) fell over -4% after the cybersecurity company gave a weak Q4 adjusted EPS forecast. On the bullish side, Urban Outfitters (URBN) soared more than +18% after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Wednesday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, came in at +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y in October, in line with expectations. Also, U.S. Q3 GDP growth was unrevised at 2.8% (q/q annualized), in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. October durable goods orders rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose +0.1% m/m, lower than the forecast of +0.2% m/m. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -2K to a 7-month low of 213K, compared with the 215K expected.

“While PCE matched expectations, there may be some concerns that the final push to get inflation to the Fed’s 2% target will take some time. Overall inflation has been moving in the desired direction, but a lack of further follow-through could force investors to reassess bets on future rate cuts,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 66.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 33.7% chance of no rate change at December’s monetary policy meeting.

Meanwhile, holiday shopping has kicked off robustly, with consumers spending nearly 10% more online this holiday season so far, according to e-commerce sales data compiled by Adobe Analytics. During the first 24 days of the holiday season starting November 1st, consumers spent $77.4 billion online, marking a 9.6% increase from last year and surpassing Adobe’s projected pace for a record-breaking total of $241 billion in online spending.

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.208%, down -0.85%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.06% this morning as investors digested Eurozone inflation data. Telecom stocks led the declines on Friday, while mining stocks outperformed. The index was heading for a monthly loss as factors such as the potential for Europe to become a U.S. tariff target and France’s political woes weighed on investor sentiment toward the bloc. Preliminary data from Eurostat, released on Friday, showed that Eurozone inflation accelerated in November, though probably not enough to prevent European Central Bank officials from reducing interest rates for a third consecutive meeting next month. Separately, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Germany’s monthly retail sales fell more than expected in October, while the adjusted unemployment rate held steady this month. Meanwhile, a survey released by the European Central Bank on Friday showed that median inflation expectations in the Euro Area for the next 12 months rose for the first time in nine months, increasing to 2.5% in October from 2.4% in September, which was the lowest level since September 2021. Also, median inflation expectations for three years ahead held steady at 2.1%, their lowest level since February 2022. In other news, France’s Prime Minister Michel Barnier abandoned plans to increase electricity taxes in his 2025 budget, bowing to far-right pressure. In corporate news, Anglo American Plc (AAL.LN) rose over +3% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.

Germany’s Retail Sales, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, France’s GDP, Eurozone’s CPI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Core CPI (preliminary) data were released today.

The German October Retail Sales came in at -1.5% m/m and +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and +3.2% y/y.

The German November Unemployment Rate was 6.1%, in line with expectations.

The French GDP arrived at +0.4% q/q and +1.2% y/y in the third quarter, compared to expectations of +0.4% q/q and +1.3% y/y.

Eurozone November CPI has been reported at +2.3% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone November Core CPI stood at +2.7% y/y, better than expectations of +2.8% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.93%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.37%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today amid expectations that Beijing will announce additional stimulus measures at a key policy meeting in December. Consumer stocks led the gains on Friday. Healthcare stocks also advanced following the release of the latest national reimbursement drug list by the agency overseeing national medical insurance. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting China’s official PMI data for November, set for release on Saturday, for insights into the nation’s economic recovery. Market participants are also looking forward to the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December for potential policy updates. The meeting of Chinese top leaders sets economic priorities for the year ahead. There is speculation that authorities will release additional stimulus measures, including the launch of a stabilization fund, a reduction in the required reserve ratio, and the inclusion of housing prices in local governments’ performance metrics. In other news, China extended tariff exemptions on certain American goods, suggesting it might be less inclined to adopt a tough stance amid U.S. trade tensions. In corporate news, New World Development Co. slumped about -6% in Hong Kong following a Bloomberg report that Chief Executive Officer Eric Ma is likely to resign.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended lower today as the yen strengthened amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike following hotter-than-expected inflation data. Automobile and machinery stocks led the declines on Friday. The benchmark index posted its third consecutive weekly decline. Data released on Friday showed that Tokyo’s core consumer inflation picked up in November and stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target as price pressures widened, sparking speculation that the central bank could raise interest rates next month. Separately, data showed that Japan’s retail sales and industrial production grew in October, though at a slower pace than expected, signaling gradual economic improvement. Meanwhile, the yen climbed to its highest level in over a month against the greenback on Friday following the strong Tokyo CPI reading. Swaps market pricing indicates a more than 60% likelihood that the BOJ will raise interest rates at its meeting next month. In other news, Mitsunari Okamoto, the policy chief of Komeito, the coalition partner of Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party, suggested that Japan might postpone a decision on tax increases to help cover higher defense spending. “It would be wonderful if we could make a decision this year, but if we can’t it doesn’t mean that we will stop increasing defense spending and boosting our defense capabilities,” Okamoto said. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -7.31% to 22.31.

The Japanese November Tokyo Core CPI came in at +2.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.0% y/y.

The Japanese October Industrial Production (preliminary) stood at +3.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of +3.8% m/m.

The Japanese October Retail Sales arrived at +1.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.1% y/y.

The Japanese October Unemployment Rate was at 2.5%, in line with expectations.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, with the price of Bitcoin up more than +1%. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up more than +4%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up over +2%, and Bit Digital (BTBT) is up more than +4%.

Applied Therapeutics (APLT) plummeted about -72% in pre-market trading after the company’s New Drug Application for govorestat received a negative response from the FDA.

VNET Group (VNET) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $5.

RumbleON (RMBL) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after B. Riley downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - November 29th

Miniso (MNSO), Nordic American Tankers (NAT).