Did A 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Just End The Bull Run In Cattle & Hogs?

Livestock

(LEZ24) (LEG25) (HEZ24) (HEG25) 

The charts are key to this analysis.

In both the December Cattle and Hogs they just hit the short term targets that were 78.6% Fibonacci retracements. In Cattle it was 188.20 and in Hogs it was 83.70 (actual high is 83.60). Based on the ONE44 78.6% rule, this is where a lot of Bull runs end and start. For Hogs this was the start of the Bull run when it hit 78.6% at 63.70 on 8/13/24. The rally in Cattle also started when the retest of the 8/21/24 low hit 78.6% at 174.50.

We will now see if failing to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement does end the bull run.

You can see last week's update below this current update.

Here is what to look for now,

Live Cattle

December

Use 188.20 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, look for the area of the next major Gann square at 191.86 and 78.6% back on the combination chart at 192.20.

Below it, since it already reacted to 38.2% at 183.40, we will now look for 61.8% of the same move at 179.59, this is also a major Gann square.

Lean Hogs

December

Use 83.70 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, look for the next major Gann square at 89.12.

Below it, since it already reacted to 23.6% at 79.70, the target area is the 76.67 major Gann square and 38.2% at 76.30.

11/21/24

Cattle

This is the last update for DecemberFrom last week,

The short term target of 38.2% at 183.50 held for the first part of the week, but failed to get a rally going, it is currently under this level and it will be key for the next week.

Use 183.50 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, provided it can get right back above it, the longer term target is the 191.86 major Gann square. The short term target is 78.6% back to the 10/29/24 at 188.20, a failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the end of the Bull move for now. Any rally that can't get back above the 185.29 major Gann square is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.

It got back above 38.2% at 183.50 on Monday and so far has rallied $3.00 and closed above the 185.29 major Gann square, this will be key for the next week.

Use 185.29 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 10/29/24 at 188.20, a failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the end of the Bull move for now. The long term target is the 191.86 major Gann square.Below it, the short term target is a retest of 38.2% at 183.50. The long term target is 78.6% the other way at 177.00 based on the ONE44 78.6% rule, (after getting back below 78.6% at 187.70).

Lean Hogs

This will be the last update for December.From last week,

The trade below 80.77 held above 23.6% at 79.70, but the rally failed to make a new high and it is currently below 80.77. Without a new high, or low the levels will be the same for the next week.

Use 80.77 as the swing point for the week again.

It was a tight range for the week with most of it between 80.77 and 23.6% at 79.70. Without being able to take out 79.70 this level will be key for the next week.

Use 79.70 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 11/1/24 high at 83.70, a failure to make a new high in this area could be the end of the rally for now and a quick break can follow.. The long term target is the 89.12 major Gann square.

Below it, the short term target area is the 76.67 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 7/15/24 low at 76.40. The long term target is 78.6% of the same move at 66.90 based on the fact that the 11/1/24 high hit 78.6%.

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