Stocks Settle Higher as Bond Yields Fall on Trump’s Treasury Secretary Pick

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Monday closed up +0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.99%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.14%.

Stocks settled higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting new all-time highs and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1-week high. Stocks rallied, and government bond yields fell Monday on optimism that President-elect Trump's pick of Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager for US Treasury Secretary, will bring a Wall Street mindset to the role and ease concerns over Trump's inflationary agenda of lower taxes and higher tariffs.  Bessent has indicated he'll back Trump's policies, but his background as a fiscal hawk signals that he will prioritize economic and market stability and lower deficits.

Limiting gains in the overall market Monday was weakness in energy stocks, as the price of WTI crude plunged more than -3%.  Also, Monday’s -4% slump in Nvidia weighed on technology stocks. 

Monday’s US economic news was weaker than expected and negative for stocks.  The Oct Chicago Fed national activity index fell -0.13 to a 9-month low of -0.40, weaker than expectations of no change at -0.28.  Also, the Nov Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey rose +0.3 to -2.7, weaker than expectations of -1.8.

Most of this week’s US economic news is front-loaded due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day holiday.  Tuesday will bring Oct new home sales (expected -1.8% m/m to 725,000) and the Conference Board’s Nov consumer confidence index (expected +3.1 to 111.8).  Also, the Nov-6-7 FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Tuesday afternoon.  Wednesday will bring revised Q3 GDP (expected no change at 2.8% y/y annualized), and the Oct core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (expected +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y). 

The markets are discounting the chances at 53% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 1-week high and closed up +0.23%. China's Shanghai Composite Index dropped to a 5-week low and closed down by -0.11%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a 1-week high and closed up +1.30%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Monday closed up +28.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -13.1 bp to 4.269%. Dec T-notes Monday rallied to a 2-week high, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2-week low of 4.260%. T-notes rose Monday after President-elect Trump nominated Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary.  The bond market applauded the move as Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, is seen as a fiscal hawk who will prioritize economic and market stability and lower deficits.  T-notes were also supported from a decline in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 2-1/2 week low Monday at 2.295%.  T-notes added to their gains after Monday’s US economic news showed the Oct Chicago Fed national activity index fell more than expected to a 9-month low and the Nov Dallas Fed manufacturing survey rose less than expected, dovish factors for Fed policy.

European government bond yields Monday moved lower.  The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 5-week low of 2.197% and finished down -3.2 bp to 2.210%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 3-1/2 week low of 4.316% and finished down -4.2 bp to 4.343%.

The German Nov IFO business climate fell -0.8 to 85.7, weaker than expectations of 86.0.

ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said, "My conviction is that looking at what's happening at the moment in the European economy, there has to follow another interest rate cut in December."

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 35% for a -50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.

US Stock Movers

Homebuilding stocks rallied Monday after the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 2-week low, which will lower mortgage rates and support housing demand. As a result, Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN), and PulteGroup (PHM) closed up more than +6%.  Also, Builders FirstSource (BLDR) and DR Horton (DHI) closed up more than +5%.  

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and added to the 25% jump over the past two sessions after it said it believes it can file its delayed 10-K and 10-Q reports in the period available under Nasdaq rules.

Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH) closed up more than +8% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $16. 

Moderna (MRNA) closed up more than +6% after Jeffries said Robert F. Kennedey’s nomination to the Department of Health and Human Services is unlikely to mean the removal of vaccines.

Healthcare stocks are climbing today after a federal judge late last Friday ruled the Biden administration wrongly downgraded UnitedHealth Group’s 2025 star ratings and must re-calculate them.  As a result,  UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Humana (HUM), Centene (CNC), and Elevance Health (ELV) closed up more than +1%.   

Bath & Body Works (BBWI) closed up more than +16% after reporting Q3 net sales of $1.61 billion, better than the consensus of $1.58 billion, and raising its 2025 sales forecast to down -1.7% to -2.5% from a previous forecast of -2% to -4%.

Brown-Forman (BF/B) closed up more than +3% after BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $48. 

US Bancorp (USB) closed up more than +2% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $65. 

Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 after Amazon.com said it was developing its own AI chips.

Defense stocks were under pressure Monday amid reports that Israel and Hezbollah are close to a cease-fire.  As a result, Lockheed Martin (LMT) and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) closed down more than -3%.  Also, Axon Enterprise (AXON) and Northrup Gruman (NOC) closed down more than -2%, and RTX Corp (RTX) closed down more than -1%. 

Energy stocks and energy service companies retreated Monday after the price of WTI crude oil fell more than -3%.  As a result, ConocoPhillips (COP) closed down more than -5%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG) closed down more than -3%.  Also, Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Hess Corp (HES) closed down more than -2%.  In addition, Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Baker Hughes (BKR), and Schlumberger (SLB) closed down more than -1%. 

Macy’s (M) closed down more than -2% after saying it would delay the release of its Q3 earnings after an investigation revealed an employee hid tens of millions of dollars of expenses. 

Despegar.com (DESP) closed down more than -5% after TD Cowen double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy with a price target of $14.

Newmont (NEM) closed down -2% to lead mining stocks lower after the price of gold dropped by more than -3%.

Earnings Reports (11/26/2024)

Analog Devices Inc (ADI), Autodesk Inc (ADSK), Best Buy Co Inc (BBY), Burlington Stores Inc (BURL), Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD), Dell Technologies Inc (DELL), Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), HP Inc (HPQ), J M Smucker Co/The (SJM), Kohl's Corp (KSS), Nordstrom Inc (JWN), Nutanix Inc (NTNX), Workday Inc (WDAY).