Stocks Set to Open Higher as Investors Cheer U.S. Treasury Pick, Fed Minutes and Inflation Data in Focus

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.45%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.57% this morning as investors welcomed Scott Bessent’s nomination as U.S. Treasury Secretary, while also awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting as well as the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and other key economic data later in the week.

Market participants viewed Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary as a prudent choice that could bring greater stability to the U.S. economy and financial markets. Bessent, the head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group, has signaled support for Trump’s tariff and tax cut plans, but investors anticipate he will prioritize economic and market stability over pursuing political gains.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended higher. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after announcing that it expects to file its delayed 10-K and 10-Q reports in the period available under Nasdaq rules. Also, Copart (CPRT) advanced more than +10% after reporting better-than-expected FQ1 revenue. In addition, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) surged over +14% after the AI enterprise search company posted upbeat FQ2 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Intuit (INTU) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the tax and accounting software company issued below-consensus FQ2 guidance.

Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to a 4-month high of 48.8 in November, in line with expectations. Also, the U.S. November S&P Global services PMI climbed to a 2-1/2 year high of 57.0, better than expectations of 55.2. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s U.S. November consumer sentiment index was revised lower to 71.8 from the preliminary reading of 73.0, weaker than expectations of 73.7.

“The U.S. flash PMIs for November were bullish in aggregate thanks to strength in services,” stated Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli, noting that the details indicated a goldilocks scenario, “with favorable growth developments and cooling price pressures.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Also, the stock markets will close early on Black Friday, with trading ending at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.

The highlight of this holiday-shortened week will be the October reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Also, investors will be monitoring a spate of other economic data releases, including U.S. GDP (second estimate), the CB Consumer Confidence Index, Building Permits, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., New Home Sales, the Richmond Manufacturing Index, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Crude Oil Inventories.

Market participants will also focus on earnings reports from several high-profile companies. Prominent tech firms such as Dell Technologies (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Analog Devices (ADI), Workday (WDAY), and CrowdStrike (CRWD), along with retailers like Best Buy (BBY), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Macy’s (M), are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.

In addition, investors will closely monitor the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the November 6-7 meeting on Tuesday. The report will offer details on the policymakers’ discussion during the November meeting, where they decided to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, and may shed light on the central bank’s future rate-cut plans.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 56.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 43.8% chance of no rate change at December’s policy meeting.

The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.343%, down -1.52%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.56% this morning as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary nomination and dovish remarks from a European Central Bank official boosted sentiment. Technology stocks led the gains on Monday. A survey showed on Monday that German business sentiment fell more than expected in November. Ifo noted November’s drop “was due primarily to the worse assessment of the current situation.” “The German economy is floundering,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. Meanwhile, ECB chief economist Phillip Lane stated that the central bank’s policy should not stay restrictive for an extended period, while also acknowledging that inflation will require more time to ease to the 2% target. Market participants are awaiting the release of preliminary Eurozone inflation data for November, scheduled for Friday, which will provide insights into the size of the ECB rate cut in December. In corporate news, Banco Bpm Spa (BAMI.M.DX) gained over +1% after UniCredit SpA launched an unexpected 10 billion euros ($10.45 billion) all-share offer for the lender.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index, Germany’s Business Expectations, and Germany’s Current Assessment data were released today.

The German November Ifo Business Climate Index has been reported at 85.7, weaker than expectations of 86.1.

The German November Business Expectations came in at 87.2, stronger than expectations of 87.0.

The German November Current Assessment arrived at 84.3, weaker than expectations of 85.4.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.11% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.30%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today, reflecting continued investor disappointment over the absence of stronger fiscal measures to rejuvenate the nation’s economy. Also, impending U.S. trade tariffs and uncertainty regarding U.S. policies toward China kept sentiment subdued. The People’s Bank of China maintained a key policy rate unchanged in November after previously cutting it in September, providing no fresh catalyst for the market. China’s central bank on Monday infused 900 billion yuan ($124.26 billion) of liquidity into the banking system through its one-year medium-term lending facility at an unchanged rate of 2.00%. This contrasts with a total of 1.45 trillion yuan of such loans due this month, resulting in a net drain of 550 billion yuan in November. Meanwhile, The Guardian reported that the U.S. is expected to unveil new export restrictions to China this week, potentially adding up to 200 Chinese chip companies to a trade restriction list. On the positive side, a separate report indicated that China and Germany were close to reaching a resolution regarding tariffs on Chinese EV imports into the bloc. Investors’ attention this week is centered on Chinese PMI and industrial profit data.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended in the green today, hitting its highest level in over a week. Japanese shares mirrored Wall Street’s positive finish on Friday as signs of U.S. economic strength boosted hopes for earnings growth. Electronics and chemical stocks led the gains on Monday. Data from the Cabinet Office released on Monday showed that Japan’s leading economic indicators index, which gauges the economic outlook for a few months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised downward in September. Meanwhile, investors are focused on Tokyo’s inflation data, set for release on Friday, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week signaled that the December policy meeting will include a live discussion on whether to raise interest rates. In corporate news, Keisei Electric Railway surged over +13% and Keikyu climbed more than +11% following reports that a fund associated with activist investor Yoshiaki Murakami has built stakes in both railway operators. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -11.80% to 20.85.

The Japanese September Leading Index was at 109.1, weaker than expectations of 109.4.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Quantum computing-related stocks are climbing in pre-market trading, extending their gains from last Friday after Amazon Web Services launched the Quantum Embark Program, designed to assist customers in preparing for the era of quantum computing. Quantum Computing (QUBT) is up over +15% and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is up more than +13%.

Snowflake (SNOW) climbed more than +3% in pre-market trading after Wedbush upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a $190 price target.

Arm Holdings (ARM) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after UBS initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a $160 price target.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) gained more than +3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $55.

The Trade Desk (TTD) advanced over +1% in pre-market trading after New Street upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - November 25th

Agilent Technologies (A), Woodward (WWD), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), NewJersey Resources (NJR), Semtech (SMTC), BBB Foods (TBBB), Fluence Energy (FLNC), PACS (PACS), Central Garden&Pet (CENT), Blue Bird (BLBD), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), Leslies (LESL), Lexinfintech (LX), PennantPark (PNNT), Agora (API), Diana Shipping (DSX), StealthGas (GASS), Enanta (ENTA).