Stocks Close Lower on Hawkish Powell

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Thursday closed down -0.60%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.66%.

Stocks retreated on Thursday, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 falling to 1-week lows.  Stocks got knocked back Thursday after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell reduced the chances of a Fed rate cut next month to 59% from 82% when he said there is no need to hurry interest rate cuts with the US economy strong.  Stocks were already on the defensive Thursday as signs of strength in US economic news may keep the Fed from aggressively cutting interest rates.  The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-1/2 month high Thursday after weekly initial unemployment claims fell more than expected to a 5-1/2 month low, and October producer prices rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy. 

Some positive corporate news on Thursday was supportive of stocks. Walt Disney closed up more than +6% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and raising its adjusted EPS growth forecast for fiscal 2025.  Also, airline stocks rallied Thursday after Barclays said a convergence in improving fundamentals and investor sentiment may drive a “powerful” rally for airline stocks next year.

US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -4,000 to a 5-1/2 month low of 217,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 220,000.

US Oct PPI final demand rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.3% y/y.  Oct PPI ex-food and energy rose +3.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.0% y/y.

Fed Chair Powell said the US economy's recent performance has been "remarkably good," and "is not sending any signal that we need to be in a hurry to lower interest rates."

Stocks have rallied sharply over the past week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs on speculation President-elect Trump will boost corporate profits through tax cuts and reduced regulation.  

The markets are looking ahead to Friday’s report on retail sales to see if consumer spending is holding up. Oct retail sales are expected to be up +0.3% m/m, and Oct retail sales ex-autos are also expected to be up +0.3% m/m.  In addition, the Q3 earnings season is wrapping up, with more than 50 companies scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Of the 85% of companies in the S&P 500 that have released Q3 earnings so far, 75% surpassed the estimates, slightly below the 3-year average.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 have reported an average +8.4% y/y increase in quarterly earnings in Q3, more than double the preseason forecast.

The markets are discounting the chances at 59% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets Thursday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +1.97%.  China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -1.73%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 1-week low and closed down -0.48%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Thursday closed up +4 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -0.2 bp to 4.449%.  Dec T-notes Thursday recovered from a 4-1/2 month low and posted modest gains, and the 10-year T-note yield fell back from a 4-1/2 month high of 4.481%.  Short covering emerged in T-notes Thursday on carryover strength in German bunds after the dovish account of the ECB’s Oct 16-17 policy meeting sparked a rally in 10-year German bunds. 

However, T-notes gave up most of their gains late Thursday on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said the FOMC is in no hurry to lower interest rates.  T-notes were also under pressure Thursday from US economic news that showed Oct producer prices rose more than expected, and after weekly jobless claims fell more than expected to a 5-1/2 month low, hawkish factors for Fed policy. 

European government bond yields Thursday moved lower.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -4.9 bp to 2.341%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -3.7 bp to 4.483%.

Eurozone Sep industrial production fell -2.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.4% m/m and the biggest decline in 8 months.

ECB Vice President Guindos said the economic "recovery we were anticipating in the Eurozone is not happening with the intensity we expected."

The account of the ECB's Oct 16-17 meeting was seen as dovish as policymakers see inflation continuing to decline, saying "there was wide agreement that the incoming data since the September meeting had increased confidence in an ongoing disinflation process and that inflation would converge to the medium-term target."

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 27% for a -50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.

US Stock Movers

Stocks with big government contracts were under pressure Thursday after President-elect Trump named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a government spending cut commission called the Department of Government Efficiency.  As a result, Leidos Holdings (LDOS) closed down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500, and General Dynamics (GD) closed down more than -6%.  Also, L3Harris Technologies (LHX) closed down more than -5%, and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) closed down more than -4%.  In addition, RTX Corp (RTX), Northrop Gruman (NOC), and Lockheed Martin (LMT) closed down more than -3%.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed down more than -11% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after the company delayed another quarterly 10-Q filing as it continued to search for a new accounting firm.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed down more than -24% after Amazon.com said it launched a competing telehealth offering for its prime members.

Ibotta (IBTA) closed down more than -12% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $100 million-$106 million, below the consensus of $1110.38 million. 

Tetra Tech (TTEK) closed down more than -13% after forecasting 2025 net revenue of $4.57 billion-$4.77 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $4.68 billion.

Papa John’s International (PZZA) closed down more than -2% after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the stock to sector weight from overweight. 

Cisco Systems (CSCO) closed down more than -1% after forecasting 2025 revenue of $55.3 billion-$56.3 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $55.88 billion.

Kilroy Realty (KRC) closed down more than -1% after Scotiabank downgraded the stock to underperform from sector perform with a price target of $38.

Walt Disney (DIS) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.14, above the consensus of $1.10, and said it sees high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2025, above the consensus of +4%.

Tapestry (TPR) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after announcing it ended a $8.5 billion planned merger with Capri Holdings Ltd due to US antitrust regulators’ objections. 

Chip stocks moved higher Thursday after ASML Holding NV affirmed its long-term guidance and pledged “growing dividends and share buybacks.” As a result,  ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +2%.  Also, Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +1%.  In addition, GlobalFoundries (GFS) closed up +0.80%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up +0.70%.

Airline stocks rose Thursday after Barclays said a convergence in improving fundamentals and investor sentiment may drive a “powerful” rally for airline stocks next year.  As a result, American Airlines Group (AAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and United  Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +1%. 

Beazer Homes USA (BZH) closed up more than +8% after reporting Q4 revenue of $806.2 million, stronger than the consensus of $777.8 million. 

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) closed up more than +8% after a 13D filing showed billionaire Tilman Fertitta reported a 9.9% stake in the company.

CNH Industrial NV (CNH) closed up more than +6% after activist investor David Einhorn revealed a new position in the company. 

Charles Schwab (SCHW) closed up more than +2% after reporting core new net assets brought to the company by new and existing clients for October was $24.6 billion.

Earnings Reports (11/15/2024)

Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM), Airship AI Holdings Inc (AISP), Compass Minerals International (CMP), Greenwich Lifesciences Inc (GLSI), Haynes International Inc (HAYN), Inhibrx Biosciences Inc (INBX), Lifezone Metals Ltd (LZM), NANO Nuclear Energy Inc (NNE), Solidion Technology Inc (STI), Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc (SPB).