S&P Futures Tick Lower as Key U.S. Inflation Data Looms

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.19% this morning as investors held back from making big bets ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended lower. Mosaic (MOS) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q3 results. Also, homebuilder stocks lost ground after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped, with Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) falling more than -3%. In addition, Novavax (NVAX) slid over -6% after cutting its full-year revenue guidance. On the bullish side, Tyson Foods (TSN) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the food giant reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results. Also, Honeywell International (HON) rose over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after activist investor Elliott Investment Management built a stake of more than $5 billion and called for a breakup of the industrial giant.

“We are on watch for potential profit taking, consolidation, or even correction for U.S. equities heading into the first quarter of the new year. Upward momentum remains strong and investor sentiment favorable, but stocks are once again overbought/extended across multiple timeframes,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. 

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated Tuesday that the U.S. economy is “in a good place.” “The Fed is in a position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves,” he added. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the central bank might pause its rate-cutting cycle in December if inflation surprises to the upside. “In my judgment, we are still at a modestly contractionary stance, but ultimately the economy will guide us, in terms of how far we are needing to go” in cutting rates, Kashkari said.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, released on Tuesday, showed that U.S. banks saw weaker demand for a key category of business loans in the third quarter, while demand for consumer credit card and auto loans also softened.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 65.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 34.2% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in December.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Cisco (CSCO), Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and CyberArk Software (CYBR) are scheduled to release their quarterly results today.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. October CPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y.

The U.S. Core CPI will also be closely watched today. Economists anticipate the core CPI to be +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y in October, matching September’s figures.

A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 55% of investors expect the market response to the consumer inflation report to be “mixed/negligible,” 31% anticipate a “risk-off” reaction, and only 14% expect “risk-on.”

In addition, market participants will be looking toward a series of speeches from Fed officials Kashkari, Williams, Logan, Schmid, and Musalem.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.414%, down -0.43%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.02% this morning as investors exercised caution in anticipation of key U.S. inflation data. Technology and automobile stocks lost ground on Wednesday, while energy and mining stocks outperformed. Meanwhile, worries about the impact of Donald Trump’s policies, China’s economic outlook, and the political situation in Germany kept sentiment subdued. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats and opposition lawmakers have agreed to hold an early federal election on February 23rd. Market participants are also awaiting a preliminary reading of Eurozone third-quarter GDP as well as the minutes from the European Central Bank’s October policy meeting, set for release on Thursday. In corporate news, Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (JET.LN) soared over +21% after announcing a deal to sell its U.S. unit Grubhub to Wonder for $650 million. Also, Siemens Energy Ag (ENR.D.DX) surged more than +14% after the utility sector supplier raised its mid-term financial targets.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Wednesday.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.51%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.66%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, recouping losses from earlier in the session. Gains in telecom and media stocks led the overall market higher on Wednesday. The mood improved as Nomura upgraded its China growth forecast, with the Q4 projection adjusted to 4.9% from 4.4% and the annual estimate revised to 4.8% from 4.7%, citing some signs of improving economic activity. Investors also continued to evaluate the economic outlook in China amid weak economic data and a disappointing stimulus package. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that China’s securities regulator has increased its interactions with global banks, shifting from quarterly discussions to sometimes weekly or ad-hoc queries to gather perspectives on recent stimulus measures. The initiative to collect data and feedback indicates Beijing’s intensified urgency to rejuvenate the economy. Still, investors remained anxious after reports that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will nominate China hawks such as Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Kristi Noem to key cabinet positions. In corporate news, OMAT Advanced Materials Guangdong Co. climbed over +8% amid plans to invest 322 million yuan in building an industrial park in Wujiang District, Shaoguan City, China.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street, while investors also took profits following last week’s rally. Automobile and pharmaceutical stocks led the declines on Wednesday. Data released by the Bank of Japan on Wednesday showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation rose in October at the fastest annual rate in over a year, as recent declines in the yen increased import costs for some goods, complicating the BOJ’s decision on the timing of interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the yen depreciated past 155 per dollar on Wednesday for the first time since July, increasing the likelihood that Japan will intervene in the currency market to attempt to slow the decline. Investors also continued to assess the impact of the nation’s 10 trillion yen ($65 billion) stimulus plan for AI chipmakers, which is designed to bolster critical supply chains amid ongoing Sino-American trade tensions. In corporate news, Nexon tumbled over -17% after the game maker lowered its full-year net profit guidance. At the same time, Seven & I Holdings climbed more than +11% after the retail giant said it had received a buyout offer from a member of its founding Ito family. Also, Tokyo Electron gained nearly +1% after the chip-making equipment maker boosted its annual operating profit forecast. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +7.41% to 24.79.

The Japanese October PPI has been reported at +0.2% m/m and +3.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of 0.0% m/m and +2.9% y/y.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Spirit Airlines (SAVE) plummeted over -65% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that the carrier was preparing to file for bankruptcy protection.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) soared about +26% in pre-market trading after the company posted better-than-expected Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 revenue guidance.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after Volkswagen increased its investment in the electric vehicle maker by 16% to $5.8 billion.

Spotify (SPOT) climbed more than +6% in pre-market trading after the music-streaming platform provided a strong Q4 operating income forecast and said it expects to add more users and premium listeners.

CAVA Group (CAVA) advanced over +16% in pre-market trading after posting upbeat Q3 results and raising its annual same restaurant sales growth guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - November 13th

Cisco (CSCO), Nu Holdings (NU), Suncor Energy (SU), Tetra Tech (TTEK), Cyberark Software (CYBR), StandardAero (SARO), Loar Holdings LLC (LOAR), Energy of Minas Gerais (CIG), Tower (TSEM), Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP), Alvotech (ALVO), Helmerich Payne (HP), J & J Snack Foods (JJSF), Griffon (GFF), HudBay Minerals (HBM), Kulicke&Soffa (KLIC), Dlocal (DLO), Ibotta (IBTA), Grupo Aval (AVAL), Hillenbrand (HI), Nextnav Acquisition (NN), Tarsus (TARS), Enlight Energy (ENLT), Harrow Health (HROW), Arcos Dorados (ARCO), BrightView Holdings (BV), Callaway Golf (MODG), Sonos (SONO), ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY), Dole (DOLE), Afya (AFYA), Paysafe (PSFE), Digi (DGII), Bitfarms (BITF), Kayne Anderson BDC (KBDC), Beazer Homes USA (BZH), Liquidia Technologies (LQDA), Miller Industries (MLR), Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR), Riskified (RSKD).

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