Stock Index Futures Muted as Trump Rally Pauses, U.S. Inflation Data and Fed Speak Awaited

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.09%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.14% this morning as investors assessed the potential policy impact of Donald Trump’s cabinet selections, while also awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials, the next round of quarterly results, as well as Wednesday’s release of a key U.S. inflation report.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) climbed over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after rival AbbVie plummeted on news that its two mid-stage trials of a schizophrenia drug failed to meet their primary endpoints. Also, Tesla (TSLA) advanced more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100, building on last week’s +26% surge amid expectations that the incoming Trump administration will support the company. In addition, Salesforce (CRM) rose over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after CEO Marc Benioff announced the company would hire 1,000 workers to capitalize on the “amazing momentum” for its AI product. On the bearish side, Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) tumbled about -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Edgewater said the company’s Blackwell allocation was at risk.

Meanwhile, investors have raised their exposure to the U.S. equities benchmark to the highest level in three years following Trump’s victory, indicating that the rally might lose momentum, according to Citigroup analysts. The new administration is expected to include prominent China hawks, and strategists are considering the possibility that Trump’s economic policies could drive inflation and influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Market participants are looking ahead to the U.S. consumer inflation report for October, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday. The CPI is expected to accelerate to +2.6% y/y from +2.4% y/y in September, while the core CPI is projected to remain unchanged from September at +3.3% y/y.

“With the election and another rate cut in the rear-view mirror, the question is whether bulls can keep pushing the market to new highs,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Aside from any potential profit-taking after such a strong surge, this week’s inflation data may determine whether the market pads its gains.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 31.5% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in December.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Home Depot (HD), Shopify (SHOP), Spotify (SPOT), Sea Limited (SE), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) are set to report their quarterly figures today. 

The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Tuesday. However, investors will focus on speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.

In addition, the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices will be released today. The SLOOS report will provide updates on the conditions, supply, and demand of bank loans extended to U.S. customers. 

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.368%, up +0.39%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.80% this morning as investors digested a new round of economic data and quarterly earnings reports. Mining, bank, and chemical stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Tuesday that U.K. wages grew at a slower pace in September, while the unemployment rate rose more than anticipated, paving the way for further rate cuts from the Bank of England. Separately, final data released by the Federal Statistical Office confirmed that Germany’s annual inflation rate was 2.0% in October, up from 1.6% in September. In addition, a monthly survey revealed that German investor morale plummeted in November. Meanwhile, investors stay focused on the potential impact of Donald Trump’s policies on the European economy and the changing political landscape in Germany. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats and opposition lawmakers have agreed to hold an early federal election on February 23rd. In corporate news, Bayer Ag (BAYN.D.DX) slumped over -11% after cutting its full-year operating earnings guidance. Also, Brenntag Se (BNR.D.DX) plunged more than -9% after the chemicals distributor reported weaker-than-expected quarterly core profit.

U.K.’s Average Earnings ex Bonus, U.K.’s Unemployment Rate, Germany’s CPI, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index were released today.

U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus came in at 4.8% in the three months to September, stronger than expectations of 4.7%.

U.K. Unemployment Rate was at 4.3% in the three months to September, weaker than expectations of 4.1%.

The German October CPI arrived at +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y, in line with expectations.

The German November ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has been reported at 7.4, weaker than expectations of 13.2.

Eurozone November ZEW Economic Sentiment Index stood at 12.5, weaker than expectations of 20.5.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -1.39% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.40%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as concerns over escalating Sino-American tensions further dampened sentiment following a series of disappointing economic data. Insurance and semiconductor stocks led the declines on Tuesday. At the same time, home appliance and energy stocks advanced. Data released after the market closed on Monday showed that Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.1 billion) in new loans last month, a sharp decrease from September’s figure and well below the forecasted 770 billion yuan ($106.4 billion). “Weak loan growth for both households and corporates continues to underscore fragile domestic demand,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note. Also, data released over the weekend pointed to persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Adding to the negative sentiment, reports indicated that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is poised to appoint two men known for their strong criticism of China to key positions in his new administration, heightening concerns about geopolitical tensions. On the positive side, Bloomberg reported that China plans to cut taxes on home purchases. According to the report, regulators are developing a proposal that would permit major cities, including Shanghai and Beijing, to reduce the deed tax for buyers to as low as 1%, down from the current level of up to 3%. In corporate news, Shantui Construction Machinery slid about -5% after revealing plans to acquire Shanzhong Construction Machinery for 1.84 billion yuan.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier gains and closed lower today. Chip-related stocks weighed on the index on Tuesday, tracking their U.S. peers lower. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Monday unveiled a 10 trillion yen ($65 billion) plan to enhance the nation’s chip and artificial intelligence industries through subsidies and other financial incentives. The multi-year investment initiative seeks to bolster critical supply chains amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, Japan’s industry minister, Yoji Muto, said Tuesday that the government does not plan any tax increase to fund its chip aid. Investors also focused on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook following the latest summary of opinions, which showed a split among policymakers regarding the timing of future rate increases. In corporate news, Nissan Motor surged over +12% after activist investor Effissimo revealed a stake in the struggling automaker. Also, Recruit Holdings gained over +3% after the company boosted its full-year revenue and net profit guidance. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.66% to 23.08.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Grab Holdings (GRAB) surged about +11% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q3 EPS.

SentinelOne (S) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $32.

Twilio (TWLO) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $120.

Ross Stores (ROST) fell nearly -1% in pre-market trading after Citi downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - November 12th

Home Depot (HD), Shopify (SHOP), Spotify (SPOT), Sea Limited (SE), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Alcon (ALC), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Tyson Foods (TSN), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME), Natera Inc (NTRA), CAVA Group (CAVA), Grab Holdings (GRAB), Skyworks (SWKS), Maplebear (CART), Amdocs (DOX), Light Wonder (LNW), Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR), Mosaic (MOS), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Repligen (RGEN), Rocket Lab USA (RKLB), Legend Bio (LEGN), Marathon Digital (MARA), Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL), CAE Inc. (CAE), Crinetics Pharma (CRNX), ZoomInfo (ZI), ICU Medical (ICUI), IGT (IGT), Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM), Alight (ALIT), Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY), Golar (GLNG), Sylvamo (SLVM), Camtek (CAMT), StoneCo (STNE), Paymentus (PAY), Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE), Terawulf (WULF), Zai Lab (ZLAB), Outfront Media (OUT), First Advantage (FA), ePlus (PLUS), Scholar Rock (SRRK), SoundHound AI (SOUN), SpringWorks (SWTX), Wave Life Sciences Ltd (WVE), Azenta (AZTA), Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO), EverCommerce (EVCM), Fidelis Insurance Holdings (FIHL), Pactiv Evergreen (PTVE), NCR Atleos (NATL), Perimeter Solutions (PRM), Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM), Treehouse Foods (THS), Rumble (RUM), Plug Power (PLUG), Evgo (EVGO), Mach Natural (MNR), Genius Sports (GENI), DHT Holdings Inc (DHT), Perdoceo Education (PRDO), Endava (DAVA), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), Danaos (DAC), Sphere Entertainment (SPHR), Avadel Pharma (AVDL), Progyny (PGNY), Novavax (NVAX), SilverCrest Metals (SILV), Orla Mining (ORLA), Schrodinger (SDGR), Cannae (CNNE), Triumph (TGI), Pagaya (PGY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Bitfarms (BITF), Up Fintech (TIGR), Nayax (NYAX), Prothena (PRTA), Autolus Therapeutics (AUTL), Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ).

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