Stocks Sharply Higher as Trump Wins Presidential Election

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Wednesday closed up +2.53%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +3.57%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +2.74%.

Stocks on Wednesday closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs.  Stocks soared after Republican candidate Trump won the presidential election.  Republicans also gained control of the Senate, but control of the House was still undecided, with many races too close to call.  Bank stocks climbed based on expectations of reduced regulations from the Trump administration.  Also, health insurers focused on the Medicare market rallied on the view that the Trump administration will pay higher rates to insurers that provide private versions of the US health program for seniors.

The dollar rallied to a 4-month high on the election news, and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 4-month high on the prospects of higher inflation due to Trump's policies of tax cuts and increased tariffs. 

Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) surged more than +9% and posted a new record high as cryptocurrencies are expected to benefit from lax regulation and President-elect Trump's support for digital currencies.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -10.8% in the week ended November 1, the sixth consecutive week applications have declined.  The purchase mortgage sub-index fell -5.1%, and the refinancing mortgage sub-index fell -18.5%.  The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose +8 bp to 6.81% from 6.73% in the prior week.

The markets are focused on (1) the results of the FOMC meeting today and Thursday (-25 bp rate cut expected) and post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell, and (2) Q3 corporate earnings results with nearly 20% of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week.

Of the companies in the S&P 500 that have released Q3 earnings so far, 78% surpassed estimates.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report an average +4.3% y/y increase in quarterly earnings in Q3, down from the +7.9% y/y growth consensus seen in July.

The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut at Thursday's FOMC meeting and at 0% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

Overseas stock markets on Wednesday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 1-week high and tumbled to a 1-3/4 month low and closed down -1.43%.  China's Shanghai Composite Index fell back from a 4-week high and closed down -0.09%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a 3-week high and closed up +2.61%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Wednesday closed down -27.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +15.5 bp to 4.426%. Dec T-notes Wednesday sank to a 4-month low, and the 10-year T-note yield surged to a 4-month high of 4.477%. T-notes plunged Wednesday as President-elect Trump's policies of low taxes and high tariffs are expected to boost growth and inflation, which are hawkish factors for Fed policy.  An increase in inflation expectations also hammered T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbed +10 bp and posted a 6-1/4 month high of 2.430%. Wednesday's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high also reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes.

T-notes recovered from their worst levels Wednesday on strong demand for the Treasury's $25 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64, well above the 10-auction average of 2.40 and the highest in more than 6 years. 

European government bond yields on Wednesday were mixed.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.0 bp to 2.405%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 1-year high of 4.594% and finished up +3.3 bp at 4.563%.

The Eurozone Oct composite PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 50.0 from the previously reported 49.7.

Eurozone Sep PPI eased to -3.4% y/y from -2.3% y/y in Aug, right on expectations.

German Sep factory orders rose +4.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.5% m/m.

ECB Vice President Guindos said global economic output would be weaker, price pressure would be stronger, and established trade flows would be disrupted if US President-elect Trump implemented the kinds of import tariffs he threatened during his campaign.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 22% for a -50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.

US Stock Movers

Bank stocks soared on expectations that the Trump administration will loosen regulations for the industry.  Discover Financial Services (DFS) soared by +21%, Synchrony Financial (SYF) rallied +19%, Capital One Financial (COF) rallied +15%, and Wells Fargo (WFC) rallied +14%.  Goldman Sachs (GS) rallied more than +13% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  Morgan Stanley (MS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rallied +12%.  Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) rallied +9%.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks rallied sharply with the price of Bitcoin up more than +9% at a record high.  Coinbase Global (COIN) soared by +32%.  Riot Platforms (RIOT) rallied +27%, Marathon Digital (MARA) rallied +20%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) rallied +14%. 

Chip stocks climbed Wednesday.  GlobalFoundries (GFS) rallied +14%.  Intel (INTC) rallied +8%.  Texas Instruments (TXN) and Micron Technology (MU) rallied +7%.  ON Semiconductor (ON), Analog Devices (ADI), Nvidia (NVDA), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Qualcomm (QCOM), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) all rallied by at least +3%.

Tesla (TSLA) rallied by +14.8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 on speculation the company will be a major beneficiary of Trump's return to the White House.

US health insurers focused on the Medicare market rallied on expectations that the Trump administration will pay higher rates to companies that provide private versions of the US health program for seniors.  Humana (HUM) and CVS Health (CVS) rallied by about +12%.  UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rallied +6%.

Qualys Inc (QLYS) rallied +25% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.56, stronger than the consensus of $1.33, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.81-$5.91 from a previous forecast of $5.46-$5.62, above the consensus of $5.59.

Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) rallied +14% after reporting Q3 revenue of $1.01 billion, better than the consensus of $976.7 million.   

Globus Medical (GMED) rallied +10% after reporting Q3 net sales of $625.7 million, stronger than the consensus of $603.9 million, and raising its full-year net sales forecast to $2.49 billion-$2.50 billion from a previous forecast of $2.47 billion-$2.49 billion, better than the consensus of $2.48 billion. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell -17% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting preliminary Q1 net sales of $5.9 billion-$6.0 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.47 billion and forecast Q2 net sales of $5.5 billion-$6.1 billion, well below the consensus of $6.79 billion. 

Home builders sank as the jump in the 10-year T-note yield to a 4-month high pushed mortgage rates higher and is likely to dampen housing demand. As a result, Lennar (LEN) fell -4.19%, DR Horton (DHI) fell -3.13%, PulteGroup (PHM) fell -2.40%, and Toll Brothers (TOL) fell -0.78%. 

US health insurers that sell private versions of Medicaid were under pressure because of the expectation that the Trump administration will pull back on funding.  As a result, Centene (CNC), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and Molina Healthcare (MOH) showed losses of between -1% and -4%. 

Exact Sciences (EXAS) fell -23% after reporting Q3 revenue of $708.1 million, below the consensus of $716.9 million, and cutting its full-year revenue forecast to $2.73 billion-$2.75 billion from a previous forecast of $2.81 billion-$2.85 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.83 billion.

Coupang (CPNG) fell -10% after reporting Q3 retail net sales of $6.14 billion, below the consensus of $6.24 billion. 

Five Below (FIVE) fell -9% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $75.   

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) fell -4% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $199. 

Earnings Reports (11/7/2024)

Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD), Airbnb Inc (ABNB), Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM), Arista Networks Inc (ANET), Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON), Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX), Consolidated Edison Inc (ED), Corpay Inc (CPAY), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), EOG Resources Inc (EOG), EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM), Evergy Inc (EVRG), Expedia Group Inc (EXPE), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Halliburton Co (HAL), Hershey Co/The (HSY), Insulet Corp (PODD), Kenvue Inc (KVUE), Mettler-Toledo International Inc (MTD), Moderna Inc (MRNA), Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP), Monster Beverage Corp (MNST), Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI), News Corp (NWSA), PG&E Corp (PCG), Ralph Lauren Corp (RL), Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK), Solventum Corp (SOLV), Tapestry Inc (TPR), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG), Viatris Inc (VTRS), Vistra Corp (VST), Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD).

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