S&P Futures Soar as Trump Wins U.S. Presidency, FOMC Meeting on Tap

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending up +2.24% this morning after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, achieving a remarkable political comeback in one of the most divisive contests for the White House in U.S. history. With a victory in Wisconsin, Trump surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Along with Wisconsin, Trump secured wins in the other critical battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. The Republican party also gained control of the U.S. Senate, and made advances in the House of Representatives in its bid to retain control there, heightening the possibility of a so-called “Red Sweep.”

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed in the green. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) soared over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the data analytics firm posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Also, GlobalFoundries (GFS) surged more than +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and offered a solid Q4 forecast. In addition, Cummins (CMI) climbed over +8% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results. On the bearish side, Celanese Corp. (CE) plummeted more than -26% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q3 results and said it would cut its quarterly dividend by 95% starting in the first quarter of 2025. Also, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) slumped over -5% after the semiconductor manufacturing and design company provided below-consensus Q4 guidance.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. ISM services index unexpectedly rose to a 2-1/4 year high of 56.0 in October, stronger than expectations of 53.8. At the same time, the U.S. October S&P Global services PMI was revised lower to 55.0 from the 55.3 preliminary reading. In addition, the U.S. trade deficit stood at -$84.40B in September, wider than expectations of -$83.80B and the largest deficit in nearly 2-1/2 years.

The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. Fed officials are widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point when their meeting concludes on Thursday as inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target. Investor attention will likely center on Powell’s press conference, where he is anticipated to offer guidance on the Fed’s trajectory for interest rate cuts in the upcoming quarters.

Third-quarter earnings season rolls on, and market participants anticipate new reports from notable companies today, including Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Gilead Sciences (GILD), MercadoLibre (MELI), CVS Health (CVS), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.3% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, down from +7.9% growth projected in mid-July.

On the economic data front, investors will likely focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure to be 0.300M, compared to last week’s value of -0.515M.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.437%, up +3.43%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.82% this morning, tracking gains in U.S. stock futures. Healthcare stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Data from the Federal Statistical Office released on Wednesday showed that German manufacturing orders surged more than expected in September, fueled by large-scale orders, providing a glimmer of hope to the struggling sector. Separately, a survey showed that Eurozone business activity remained steady in October, a slight improvement from September’s modest decline, buoyed by growth in the bloc’s dominant services sector which counterbalanced the persistent downturn in manufacturing. Meanwhile, market participants are also awaiting the interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Thursday. In corporate news, Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB.C.DX) surged over +7% after the pharmaceutical giant reported better-than-expected Q3 sales of its popular Wegovy weight-loss drug and narrowed its full-year growth guidance. At the same time, Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag (BMW.D.DX) slumped more than -5% after the automaker reported weaker-than-expected Q3 profit.

Germany’s Factory Orders, Eurozone’s Composite PMI, Eurozone’s Services PMI, and Eurozone’s PPI data were released today.

The German September Factory Orders came in at +4.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.6% m/m.

Eurozone October Composite PMI stood at 50.0, stronger than expectations of 49.7.

Eurozone October Services PMI arrived at 51.6, stronger than expectations of 51.2.

Eurozone September PPI has been reported at -0.6% m/m and -3.4% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.5% m/m and -3.5% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.09% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.61%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed marginally lower today, giving up earlier gains as investors kept an eye on the U.S. presidential election results and awaited policy updates from Beijing. Insurance and home appliance stocks led the declines on Wednesday. Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated Tuesday that officials have “ample space for fiscal policy and monetary policy” and reiterated that China would achieve its economic growth target of around 5%. Also, on Tuesday, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng committed to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy stance and intensifying countercyclical adjustments. Investors are now awaiting more details from the ongoing Standing Committee meeting of the National People’s Congress, where authorities are anticipated to announce additional fiscal stimulus measures to bolster economic growth. Natixis economists Alicia Garcia Herrero and Jianwei Xu stated that China might unveil a fiscal package of 9 trillion yuan this week. At the same time, market participants are closely monitoring the U.S. presidential election results, with Donald Trump’s lead in the race fueling concerns over additional tariffs on Chinese goods and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, and the yen fell to its weakest level since July as Donald Trump took a lead over Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. Investors anticipate further weakening of the Japanese currency as Trump emerges as the victor. Conglomerate and bank stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Defense stocks also surged on speculation that Trump will pressure Japan to increase its defense spending. A private survey released on Wednesday indicated that Japan’s service activity contracted in October due to weaker sales, with business confidence falling to its lowest level since March 2022 amid concerns about a labor shortage. A separate private survey showed that sentiment among Japanese manufacturers deteriorated in November, influenced by worries over declining Chinese demand and persistent inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, minutes of the Bank of Japan’s September meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that many BOJ policymakers agreed the economy was progressing toward meeting conditions necessary for further interest rate hikes, though they supported a pause until global market uncertainties ease. In corporate news, Nintendo climbed over +5% despite the gaming company lowering its operating profit forecast for the year ending March 2025 by 10%. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -14.95% to 23.09.

The Japanese October au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI stood at 49.7, stronger than expectations of 49.3.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) jumped over +35% in pre-market trading after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Tesla (TSLA) climbed over +13% in pre-market trading as the company’s CEO, Elon Musk, promoted Donald Trump throughout his electoral campaign.

Qualys (QLYS) surged more than +20% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and boosted its full-year guidance.

Exact Sciences (EXAS) plummeted about -25% in pre-market trading after the company posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year revenue guidance.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbled more than -17% in pre-market trading after reporting mixed preliminary FQ1 results and providing below-consensus FQ2 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - November 6th

Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), Gilead (GILD), MercadoLibre (MELI), CVS Health (CVS), McKesson (MCK), Williams (WMB), Energy Transfer (ET), Applovin (APP), American Electric Power (AEP), Manulife Financial (MFC), Sempra Energy (SRE), Johnson Controls (JCI), Fair Isaac (FICO), Cencora Inc (COR), Corteva (CTVA), Howmet (HWM), Iron Mountain (IRM), HubSpot Inc (HUBS), Take-Two (TTWO), Texas Pacific (TPL), Franco-Nevada (FNV), CGI Inc (GIB), Nutrien (NTR), PTC (PTC), Atmos Energy (ATO), TKO Holdings (TKO), Sun (SUI), Gfl Environmental (GFL), Royalty Pharma (RPRX), Fidelity Financial (FNF), Owens Corning (OC), Marathon Oil (MRO), Trimble (TRMB), U-Haul Holding (UHAL), Zillow C (Z), Western Midstream Partners (WES), Coherent (COHR), Renaissancere (RNR), Zillow Group Inc (ZG), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Duolingo (DUOL), Performance Food Group Co (PFGC), Host Hotels Resorts (HST), Sarepta (SRPT), Albemarle (ALB), Permian Resources (PR), MarketAxesss (MKTX), Klaviyo (KVYO), Fortune Brands (FBIN), Hamilton Lane (HLNE), Pinnacle West (PNW), Qiagen (QGEN), Royal Gold (RGLD), Charles River Laboratories (CRL), Match Group (MTCH), Primerica (PRI), Revolution Med (RVMD), APA Corp (APA), Alamos Gold (AGI), Kinetik Holdings (KNTK), Chord Energy (CHRD), Lantheus Holdings Inc (LNTH), Jackson Financial (JXN), Celsius (CELH), Sunoco LP (SUN), Jazz Pharma (JAZZ), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Vertex (VERX), Starwood Property (STWD), Coty Inc (COTY), Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN), Cytokinetics Inc (CYTK), ELF Beauty (ELF), Owl Rock Capital (OBDC), FS KKR Capital (FSK), LYFT (LYFT), Dutch Bros (BROS), National Fuel Gas (NFG), Kyndryl Holdings (KD), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Southwest Gas Hold (SWX), Q2 Holdings (QTWO), F G Annuities Life (FG), Schneider National (SNDR), Enact Holdings (ACT), Ormat (ORA), Sterling Construction (STRL), Radian (RDN), Rayonier (RYN), Brinks (BCO), Workiva Inc (WK), B2Gold (BTG), Macerich (MAC), Cellebrite (CLBT), Six Flags Entertainment (FUN), Ashland Global (ASH), Black Hills (BKH), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Sitime Corp (SITM), Inter Parfums (IPAR), Enersys (ENS), Hecla Mining (HL), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Osisko Gold Ro (OR), Tanger Inc (SKT), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), Freshworks (FRSH), Power Integrations (POWI), Liberty Latin America (LILA), Sitio Royalties (STR), Amicus (FOLD), American States Water (AWR), DoubleVerify Holdings (DV), Crane NXT (CXT), NMI Holdings (NMIH), Guardant Health (GH), Avista (AVA), Paycor HCM (PYCR), Genworth (GNW), Axcelis (ACLS), Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC), Veracyte Inc (VCYT), LXP Industrial Trust (LXP), Methanex (MEOH), Kodiak Gas Services (KGS), Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (CPRX), Vista Outdoor Inc (VSTO), Excelerate Energy (EE), Amphastar P (AMPH), Rapid7 Inc (RPD), Coeur Mining (CDE), Equinox Gold (EQX), Enovis (ENOV), Vishay Intertechnology (VSH).

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