S&P 500 Falls from a Record High on Hawkish Powell

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Wednesday closed down by -0.29%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down by -0.45%.

Stocks on Wednesday gave up mid-session gains and turned lower as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell pushed bond yields higher and sparked the selling of chip stocks when he said the Fed was in no rush to ease monetary policy. 

Stocks initially rallied Wednesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials climbing to new record highs and the Nasdaq 100 climbing to a 3-week high.  The FOMC’s decision Wednesday to cut the fed funds target range by -50 bp and project another -50 bp worth of rate cuts by year-end pushed stock prices higher.  Also, Wednesday’s US housing starts and building permits reports were better than expected, bolstering the prospects for a soft landing and supporting stocks.

The FOMC voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds target range by -50 bp to 4.75%-5.00% and said the committee is "strongly committed to supporting maximum employment" and returning inflation to its 2% goal.

The FOMC cut its federal funds forecast for the end of 2024 to 4.375% from 5.125% in June, implying another 50 bp of rate cuts by the end of the year.

The FOMC cut its 2024 US GDP forecast to +2.0% from +2.1% in June and cut its 2024 core PCE estimate to +2.6% from +2.8% in June.  The FOMC also raised its 2024 unemployment forecast to 4.4% from 4.0% in June.

Fed Chair Powell said, "We made a good, strong start" by cutting rates by 50 bp Wednesday, and the Fed is "squarely focused" on its dual mandate of inflation and employment.  He added that the Fed is not in a rush to ease policy and "we will move as fast or as slow" as policymakers consider appropriate based on the data.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +14.2% in the week ended September 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising +5.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index rising +24.2%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -14 bp to a 2-year low of 6.15% from 6.29% in the prior week. 

US Aug housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356 million, stronger than expectations of 1.318 million.  Aug building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475 million, stronger than expectations of 1.410 million.

The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut at the November 6-7 FOMC meeting and at 36% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

Overseas stock markets Wednesday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.52%.  China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 7-1/4 month low and closed up +0.49%.   Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.49%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Wednesday closed down -9.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.1 bp to 3.687%.  Dec T-notes Wednesday fell to a 1-week low, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-week high of 3.173%.  T-notes were under pressure Wednesday on negative carryover from a slide in European government bonds to 1-week lows.  T-notes also fell on Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected US Aug housing starts and building permits reports.  In addition, rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate Wednesday rose to a 2-week high of 2.166%.

T-notes erased their losses and briefly moved higher Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by -50 bp and projected another -50 bp of rate cuts this year.  Also, the action by the FOMC to cut its US 2024 GDP forecast and its core PCE price estimate were bullish for T-notes.  However, T-notes gave up their gains and fell to their lows Wednesday afternoon after Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is in no rush to ease monetary policy.

European government bond yields on Wednesday moved higher.  The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 1-week high of 2.195% and finished up +4.7 bp to 2.190%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-week high of 3.854% and finished up +7.9 bp to 3.847%.

ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said, "The ECB has cut interest rates twice and should continue to cut them," as victory over inflation is "within sight."

Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 32% for the October 17 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Weakness in chip stocks weighed on the overall market.  Intel (INTC) closed down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), Analog Devices (ADI), Applied Materials (AMAT), and ON Semiconductor (ON) closed down more than-1%. 

ResMed (RMD) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to underperform from peer perform with a price target of $180. 

Sysco (SYY) closed down more than -4% after CEO Hourican said restaurant traffic industrywide had softened a bit in the current quarter.

Cencora (COR) closed down more than -2% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Incyte Corp (INCY) closed down more than -1% after Truist Securities downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) closed down nearly -1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a price target of $31.

General Motors (GM) closed up more than +2% as its customers with electric vehicles (EVs) now have access to 17,800 Tesla Superchargers starting this month, which may boost EV sales for GM as customer concerns ease about charging infrastructure with the expanded charger access. 

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) rose more than +1% after announcing a new partnership with Amazon Buy with Prime.

VF Corp (VFC) closed up more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $22. 

Victoria’s Secret & Co (VSCO) closed up more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to equal weight from underweight. 

GE Healthcare (GEHC) closed up nearly +2% after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $100.

United States Steel (X) closed up more than +1% after a US security panel granted Nippon Steel permission to refile its plans to purchase the company for $14.1 billion. 

Extra Space Storage (EXR) closed up more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $204.

Earnings Reports (9/19/2024)

Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI), FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS), FedEx Corp (FDX), Lennar Corp (LEN).

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