Stocks Close Little Changed Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Decision

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Tuesday closed up by +0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.05%.

Stocks on Tuesday relinquished early gains and closed little changed.  Long liquidation pressures emerged in stocks Tuesday afternoon after bond yields rose ahead of the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting are released on Wednesday.   

Stocks on Tuesday rallied early in the session, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting new record highs and the Nasdaq 100 rising to a 2-1/2 week high.  Tuesday's positive corporate and economic news boosted optimism in the US economic outlook and supported stocks. 

Intel rose more than +2% after the chipmaker won new business from Amazon.com.  Also, Microsoft closed up nearly +1% after it raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and announced a new $60 billion stock repurchase program.  Stocks also found support from Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected US economic reports on retail sales and manufacturing production that bolstered the outlook for a soft landing. 

Aug retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline. However, Aug retail sales ex-autos rose only +0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

US Aug manufacturing production rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the largest increase in 6 months.

The US Sep NAHB housing market index rose +2 to 41, right on expectations.

The markets will look to the 2-day FOMC meeting that concludes Wednesday afternoon to see whether policymakers will decide that a -25 bp cut in the fed funds target range would be adequate for a US economy that has shown signs of losing momentum or whether they will decide on a larger -50 bp rate cut instead.  Post-meeting comments from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday will also be scrutinized regarding the Fed’s future policy intentions. 

The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting and at 69% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

Overseas stock markets Tuesday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 1-1/2 week high and closed up +0.69%.  China's Shanghai Composite was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.03%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Tuesday closed down -6 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.0 bp to 3.638%.  Dec T-notes Tuesday gave up early gains and turned lower, and the 10-year T-note yield rebounded from a 15-month low of 3.595% and moved higher.  The stronger-than-expected US retail sales and manufacturing production reports weighed on T-note prices.  Also, an increase in inflation expectations weighed on T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high Tuesday of 2.118%.  In addition, weak demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion 20-year T-bond auction undercut T-notes as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.51, well below the 10-auction average of 2.61. 

T-notes on Tuesday initially moved higher on heightened speculation the Fed will cut interest rates by -50 bp at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting.  Swap markets showed the chances of a -50 bp rate cut rose to 69% Tuesday from 52% last Friday. 

European government bond yields on Tuesday moved higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.1 bp to 2.143%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rebounded from a 7-1/2 month low of 3.729% and finished up +0.9 bp at 3.768%.

The German Sep ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index fell -15.6 to an 11-month low of 3.6, weaker than expectations of 17.0.

ECB Governing Council member Simkus said the likelihood of an October interest rate cut by the ECB is "very small."

Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 32% for the October 17 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) closed up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100  after the chipmaker landed Amazon.com’s AWS as a customer for its chip manufacturing business. 

HP Enterprise (HPE) closed up more than +5% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $24. 

Moderna (MRNA) closed up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after Health Canada approved the company’s updated Covid-19 vaccine for use.

Airbnb (ABNB) closed up more than +3% after Uber won its fight against a state government claim in Australia that ruled its payments to drivers were not wages, which bolstered speculation other businesses with similar payment arrangements to Uber’s may benefit from its win in a long-standing payroll tax dispute.

Health insurance stocks were under pressure Tuesday, with Cigna Group (CI) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) closing down more than -2%.  Also, Centene (CNC), Cardinal Health (CAH), Elevance Health (ELV), and HCA Healthcare (HCA) closed down more than -1%. 

Accenture Plc (ACN) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg News reported the company plans to push back the bulk of its staff promotions by six months as a weak outlook is curbing IT spending.

Atlassian (TEAM) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 on signs of insider selling after an SEC filing showed CEO Cannon-Brookes sold $1.31 million shares last Friday.

AppLovin (APP) closed up more than +6% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $145.

GE Vernova (GEV) closed up more than +2% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $300. 

Dell Technologies (DELL) closed up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of outperform and a price target of $135. 

Microsoft (MSFT) closed up nearly +1% after it raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and announced a new $60 billion stock repurchase program. 

Acushnet Holdings (GOLF) closed down more than -3% after Jeffries downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

S&P Global Inc (SPGI) closed down nearly -1% after it was removed from Bank of America Global Research’s US number 1 list.

Earnings Reports (9/18/2024)

Ennis Inc (EBF), General Mills Inc (GIS), Steelcase Inc (SCS).

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