Stocks Finish Higher on Economic Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Thursday closed up by +0.75%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up by +0.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.97%.

Stocks on Thursday recovered from early losses and moved higher the rest of the session, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting 1-week highs and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1-1/2 week high.  Positive corporate news lifted the overall market Thursday, as Warner Bos Discovery closed up more than +10% after it said its multiyear distribution partnership with Charter Communications was renewed early.  Also, Kroger closed up more than +7% after raising guidance on the lower end of its full-year sales forecast.  In addition, Nvidia closed up more than +1% after CEO Huang said his company is experiencing strong demand for its latest generation of AI chips, called Blackwell.

US stocks garnered some carryover support from the rally in European stocks, as the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed +1.06% after the ECB cut its deposit facility rate by -25 bp to 3.50% from 3.75%.

Thursday’s as-expected US Aug PPI report was negative for stocks as it dampened speculation that the Fed will be able to cut interest rates by -50 bp at next week’s FOMC meeting.  Also, an unexpected increase in US initial unemployment claims signaled weakness in the labor market that is negative for economic growth.  In addition, most chip stocks saw pressure Thursday after Micron Technology was downgraded to underperform at BNP Paribas Exane. 

US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly rose +2,000 to 230,000, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of a decline to 226,000.

US Aug PPI final demand eased to +1.7% y/y from +2.1% y/y in July, right on expectations and the smallest increase in 6 months.  Aug PPI ex-food and energy rose +2.4% y/y, up from +2.3% y/y in July and right on expectations.

The markets are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut for the September 17-18 FOMC meeting and at 33% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

Overseas stock markets Thursday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +1.06%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.17%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +3.41%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Thursday closed down by -4.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.5 bp to 3.678%.  Dec T-notes were under pressure Thursday on negative carryover from a slide in European government bonds.  Also, Thursday's rally in stocks curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes.  Losses in T-notes were limited after weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly increased, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Also, short covering emerged in T-notes following decent demand for the Treasury’s $22 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.38, right on the average of the past ten auctions.

European government bond yields on Thursday moved higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +3.9 bp to 2.150%.  The 10-year UK gilt rose +2.0 bp to 3.781%.

As expected, the ECB cut its deposit facility rate by -25 bp to 3.50% from 3.75% and said it would continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of interest rates. 

The ECB cut its Eurozone 2024 GDP forecast to +0.8% from a previous forecast of +0.9% and raised its 2024 core inflation forecast to +2.9% from +2.8%.

ECB President Lagarde said Eurozone growth risks are tilted to the downside and, "according to survey indicators, the recovery in the Eurozone is continuing to face some headwinds."

Swaps are discounting the chances of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 56% for the October 17 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -3% to lead chip stocks lower after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from outperform with a price target of $67.  Also, Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -3% and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  In addition, GlobalFoundries (GFS), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), ON Semiconductor (ON), KLA Corp (KLAC), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -2%. 

Warner Bos Discovery (WBD) closed up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it said its multiyear distribution partnership with Charter Communications was renewed early.

Kroger (KR) closed up more than +7% after raising the lower end of its full-year sales guidance to +0.75% to +1.75% from a previous forecast of +0.25% to +1.75%

Axon Enterprise (AXON) closed up more than +6% after JMP Securities raised its price target on the stock to $430 from $375.

Nvidia (NVDA) closed up more than +1% after CEO Huang said his company is experiencing strong demand for its latest generation of AI chips, called Blackwell.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) closed up more than +2% after it stopped the blinded phase of its trial of the HIV drug lenacapavir after the drug reduced infections by 96%

Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG) closed up more than +11% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.25, stronger than the consensus of $1.12, and forecast 2025 adjusted EPS of $9.90-$11.52, with the midpoint above the consensus of $10.24. 

Netgear (NTGR) closed up more than +31% after raising its Q3 revenue guidance to $170 million-$180 million from a previous estimate of $160 million-$175 million.

Roku (ROKU) closed up more than +5% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to outperform from peer perform with a price target of $93. 

Moderna (MRNA) closed down more than -12% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it said it will cut its research and development budget by about 20% over the next three years to achieve a $1.1 billion cut from its R&D budget by 2027. 

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) closed down more than -4% after reaching a deal with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, requiring it to beef up systems for detecting money laundering and complying with international sanctions.

Caleres (CAL) closed down more than -18% after reporting Q2 net sales of $683.3 million, weaker than the consensus of $723.8 million, and cutting its 2025 operating margin forecast to 7.0% to 7.1% from a previous view of 7.3% to 7.5%. 

Fortinet (FTNT) closed down more than -2% on a data breach after it said someone had broken into a “limited” number of files that contained information related to some of its customers.

Interpublic Group of Cos (IPG) closed down more than -1% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $29.

Earnings Reports (9/13/2024)

Dakota Gold Corp (DC), Selectquote Inc (SLQT), Spire Global Inc (SPIR).

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